Storm Prediction Information for Decision Making at Sea

在阅读大学进行的风暴预测研究的潜在价值已经得到了许多行业的认可，包括海洋，保险和石油和天然气。然而，如何解释和利用这些信息的问题是一个主要障碍。其中一个主要的困难是，这些行业部门只习惯于处理静态信息，不知道如何处理时变的环境数据。为了鼓励这些商业部门进行必要的投资以克服这一障碍，有必要说明风暴预测信息在已经熟悉处理随时间变化的环境数据的商业部门中的潜在好处。海洋部门有这样的经验，也是对英国至关重要的产业部门。该项目将与英国海洋技术集团有限公司ARGOSS（BMT ARGOSS，http：//www.bmtargoss.com/）合作执行，后者是一家技术咨询公司，是提供海洋环境信息的专业提供者和领先创新者。他们已经能够处理随时间变化的数据，使他们成为这个项目的理想合作伙伴。ESSC与BMT集团有着长期的合作关系，BMT集团在过去的9年里提供了一项研究赞助计划。海事部门与包括保险和石油天然气在内的其他部门相互作用，因此将项目交付成果成功实施到BMT的系统中将证明对其他行业部门的好处。准确的风暴预报信息对于海上决策至关重要。从船舶定线到资源勘探等活动都需要此类信息，以优化运营并防止经济和人员损失。例如，卡特里娜飓风和墨西哥湾的其他飓风导致那里的石油和天然气工业一再中断，世界其他地方的运营商也经常面临类似的中断。船舶路由系统旨在避免危险的天气，并找到在时间和燃料成本方面最佳的路线。该项目旨在开发从预报数据中提取可用于海上决策的风暴预报信息的方法和工具。近年来，ESSC在分析预报模型预测风暴的能力方面积累了丰富的专业知识。本研究特别关注被称为包围预测系统（EPS）的类型预测系统。EPS涉及从略微不同的初始状态多次运行模型，以生成预报集合，提供关于恶劣天气事件预报的不确定性/概率的信息。风暴跟踪方法提供了有用的风暴重点预报信息，这是不可能从业务气象中心使用的传统数据分析方法获得的。该KE提案将使BMT ARGOSS能够利用这些新信息，改善和扩展他们可以为客户提供的服务，从而改善海上决策。除了风暴预报信息外，来自卫星的风和波浪地球观测数据对海洋作业也至关重要。ESSC目前正在提议在位于哈威尔的新的国际空间创新中心（ISIC）开发一个应用程序，因此能够将海洋作业所需的多颗卫星的EO数据汇集在一起。该提案将利用这一新方案，将观测数据纳入所开发的预报工具。除了海洋部门的用户外，还将向其他潜在的最终用户演示本提案中开发的预测工具。一旦海洋部门开发了一种工具（世卫组织的信息系统已经使用时变数据），将更容易渗透到保险和石油天然气部门。

The potential value of storm prediction research carried out at the University of Reading has been recognised by a number of industry sectors, including the marine, insurance and oil and gas. However, the question of how to interpret and utilise this information presents a major barrier. One of the major difficulties is that these industry sectors are only used to handling static information and do not know how to handle time-varying environmental data. In order to encourage these business sectors to make the required investments to overcome this barrier, it is necessary to illustrate the potential benefits of storm prediction information in a business sector that is already familiar with handling time-varying environmental data. The marine sector has such experience and is also an industry sector critical to the UK. This project will be carried out in collaboration with British Marine Technology Group Ltd ARGOSS (BMT ARGOSS, http://www.bmtargoss.com/), a technical consulting company, specialist provider and leading innovator in the supply of marine environmental information. They are already able to handle time varying data, making them an ideal partner for this project. ESSC has a longstanding relationship with the BMT Group, who have provided a research sponsorship program over the past 9 years. The maritime sector interacts with other sectors, including insurance and oil and gas, so a successful implementation of the project deliverables into BMT's systems will demonstrate the benefits to other industry sectors. Accurate forecast information about storms is vital for decision making at sea. Activities ranging from ship routing to resource exploration require such information to optimise operations and to prevent economic and human losses. For example Hurricane Katrina and other hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico have led to repeated disruption of the oil and gas industries located there, and similar disruptions are faced regularly by operators elsewhere in the world. Ship routing systems aim to avoid dangerous weather as well as finding routes that are optimal in terms of time and fuel costs. This project aims to develop methods and tools for extracting forecast information about storms from forecast data that can be used for decision making at sea. In recent years ESSC has developed extensive expertise in analysing the ability of forecast models to predict storms. This research has particularly focused on a type forecasting system known as an Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). An EPS involves running a model multiple times from slightly different initial states to generate an ensemble of forecasts providing information about the uncertainty/probability of forecasts of severe weather events. The storm tracking approach provides useful storm focused forecast information, which it is not possible to obtain from traditional data analysis approaches used at operational weather centres. This KE proposal will enable BMT ARGOSS to utilise such novel information, to improve and extend the services they can offer their clients and thereby improve decision making at sea. In addition to storm prediction information, wind and wave Earth observation (EO) data from satellites are essential to marine operations. ESSC is currently proposing the development of an Applications program at the new International Space Innovation Centre (ISIC) based at Harwell and is thus in an excellent position to bring together EO data from multiple satellites necessary for marine operations. This proposal will exploit this new program by incorporating observational data into the forecast tools developed. The forecast tools developed in this proposal will be demonstrated to other potential end users in addition to those in the marine sector. Once a tool has been developed with the marine sector (who's information systems already use time varying data) it will be easier to penetrate the insurance and oil and gas sectors.