Changes in urbanisation and its effects on water quantity and quality from local to regional scale

在过去的50年里，英国土地利用发生了相当大的变化，而且这种变化很可能会持续下去。到2035年，英国人口预计将增加16%，这将带来城市地区规模和结构的变化，并增加土地管理的压力，尤其是在东南部。该项目通过使用一系列经过测试的建模方法和相关专业知识，将促进对城市化对水资源和污染的精细影响的理解，目前人们对这些影响知之甚少。会议的重点将放在泰晤士河流域的水安全问题上，对该地区未来人口和气候的预测表明，该地区将面临严重的水压力。将在地方尺度（包括Bracknell和Swindon）进行详细的案例研究，其中过去土地利用变化对河流水文和生态制度的影响可能很大，并将开发和测试一种新的综合建模方法。然后，这种方法将被合理化，并扩大规模，在整个泰晤士河进行测试，并与城市发展和土地管理变化的预测相结合，用于量化未来的影响。这些发现将被置于气候驱动因素直接影响的背景下。

Over the past 50 years changes in UK land-use have been considerable and substantial change is likely to continue. The UK population is projected to increase by 16% to 2035 which will bring about change to the size and structure of urban areas and increased pressure on land management, especially in the south-east. This project, by calling upon a range of tested modelling approaches and associated expertise will advance understanding of the fine-scale impacts of urbanisation on water resources and pollution, which are currently poorly understood. The focus will be on water security in the Thames river basin where projections of future population and climate indicate serious water stress. Detailed case studies at a local scale (including Bracknell and Swindon), where the impacts of past land-use changes on river hydrological and ecological regimes are likely to be large, will be undertaken and a novel integrated modelling approach developed and tested. The approach will then be rationalised and up-scaled for testing across the entire Thames, and, in conjunction with projections of urban development and land management change, used to quantify future effects. These findings will be set in the context of effects indicated to be a direct consequence of climate drivers.