Hydro-JULES: Next generation land surface and hydrological prediction

该项目的主要成果将是建立一个世界领先的综合陆地水文模型，从全球天气和当地降雨到陆地水文系统，再到洪水泛滥评估及其后续影响。Hydro-JULES模型及其相关数据集将使英国科学能够解决水文科学方面的突出研究问题，并将为支持Hydro-JULES项目及其他方面的研究提供国家资源。Hydro-JULES将为英国水文和陆地表面社区提供模型和研究基础设施，以解决该领域最紧迫的国际重要研究问题，其中包括：水文系统如何响应当前的气候变率？在未测量的地点、数据稀疏的地区和非平稳条件下，如何最好地量化未来气候变化的影响？新的观测和模拟技术能在多大程度上提高我们对极端降水，特别是高强度对流降水如何驱动洪水的理解？土地利用和土地管理的变化将如何影响地表渗透性、土壤储水、径流、河流流量和洪水泛滥？在气候变化的影响下，河流、雨洪、沿海和地下水洪水的综合概率是多少？洪水风险评估的耦合方法能否更有效地量化这些风险？生物地球化学和养分循环将如何响应当前和未来水文循环的变化，特别是在气候和土地覆盖变化的条件下？7.对观测到的水文状态和通量（如土壤湿度和河流流量）的同化能在多大程度上改进水文和气象预测？在什么时间尺度上？大尺度水文预测的不确定性能否归因于特定的水文过程，以便针对未来基于过程的研究？地球系统组成部分（如植被、碳循环、气溶胶、陆冰、海冰、海洋环流和生物地球化学）对水文循环变化的敏感性是什么？陆地水文在地球系统模型中的增强表现是否有助于限制对这种变化的反应？

The major project outcome will be a world-leading integrated terrestrial hydrological model that goes from global weather and local rainfall through the terrestrial hydrological system to flood inundation assessments and their consequent impacts. The Hydro-JULES model and its associated datasets will enable UK science to tackle outstanding research questions in hydrological science and will provide a national resource to support research both specific to the Hydro-JULES project and beyond. Hydro-JULES will provide the UK hydrological and land-surface communities with the model and research infrastructure to tackle the most pressing internationally-important research questions in this field, which include:1. How do hydrological systems respond to present-day climate variability and how can the impacts of future climate change best be quantified in ungauged locations, in data-sparse regions and under non-stationary conditions?2. To what extent can new observational and modelling techniques improve our understanding of how extreme precipitation, especially high-intensity convective precipitation, drives flooding?3. How will changes in land-use and land management affect surface permeability, soil water storage, runoff, river flows and flood inundation?4. What are the combined probabilities of fluvial, pluvial, coastal and groundwater flooding in response to changes in climate, and can a coupled approach to flood risk estimation quantify those risks more effectively?5. How will biogeochemical and nutrient cycles respond to current and future variability in the hydrological cycle, especially under conditions of changing climate and land-cover?6. To what extent can assimilation of observed hydrological states and fluxes (e.g., soil moisture and stream flow) improve hydrological and meteorological predictions, and on what time-scales?7. Can uncertainty in large-scale hydrological predictions be attributed to specific hydrological processes in order to target future process-based research?8. What is the sensitivity of Earth system components (e.g., vegetation, carbon cycle, aerosols, land ice, sea ice, ocean circulation and biogeochemistry) to changes in the hydrological cycle; and can enhanced representation of terrestrial hydrology in Earth system models help constrain responses to such changes?