Susceptibility of catchments to INTense RAinfall and flooding (SINATRA)

SINATRA项目响应NERC关于强降雨引发洪水（FFIR）研究的号召，开展了一项重点研究计划，旨在促进对决定强降雨引发洪水的概率、发生率和影响的过程的一般科学理解。这种极端降雨事件可能最多只持续几个小时，但可能产生可怕的破坏性洪水。它们的影响可能受到一系列因素（或过程）的影响，例如降雨的位置和强度，福尔斯所处流域的形状和陡峭程度，水流移动了多少沉积物以及洪水路径上社区的脆弱性。此外，FFIR的性质是快速的，这使得研究人员很难在事件期间“捕获”测量结果。复杂性，速度和缺乏现场测量的FFIR使它难以创建计算机模型来预测洪水，我们往往不确定其准确性。为了解决这些问题，NERC启动了FFIR研究计划。它旨在通过改进我们对导致FFIR的气象（天气），水文（洪水）和水文形态（洪水移动的沉积物和碎片）过程的识别和预测来减少地表水和山洪暴发的风险。该方案的一个主要要求是确定由于集水区、形状、地质和土壤类型以及土地使用等因素，特定集水区如何可能易受FFIR影响。SINATRA项目将分三个阶段解决这些问题：首先，提高我们对造成FFIR的因素的理解，并收集新的、高分辨率的FFIR测量数据;其次，利用这些新的理解和数据来改进FFIR模型，以便我们能够预测它们可能发生的地方-全国范围内和;第三，利用这些新的发现和预测，为环境署和专业人员提供信息和软件，他们可以用来管理FFIR，减少对社区的破坏和影响。更详细地说，我们将：1.加强对控制FFIR过程的科学理解，方法是：（a）收集英国过去FFIR事件及其影响的档案，作为提高我们预测未来FFIR事件的能力的先决条件。(b)利用实地工作和众包方法，对洪水事件期间的洪水进行真实的实时观测，并进行事后调查和历史事件重建。(c)通过识别与FFIR事件相关的大尺度大气条件来表征英国夏季洪水事件的物理驱动因素，并将其与流域类型联系起来。（a）在高空间和时间尺度上对FFIR采用集水区/城市规模综合建模方法，模拟集水区对山洪暴发的快速反应及其在城市地区的影响。(b)通过改进FFIR区域尺度模型中快速河流和地表水洪水以及水文形态变化（包括泥石流）的表示，扩大到更大的集水区。(c)通过整合河流演变和快速径流过程，改进JULES陆面模式中FFIR的表达，并将土壤水分和河流流量同化到模式运行中.将这些科学进步转化为实用工具，以更有效地告知公众，方法是：（a）开发工具，以便预测未来的FFIR影响，以支持洪水预报中心发布关于其发生的新的“基于影响”的警告。(b)开发FFIR分析工具，以评估在知识不完整的复杂情况下与罕见事件相关的风险，类似于为放射性废物管理中的安全评估开发的工具。SINATRA将实现NERC的FFIR计划科学目标。

Project SINATRA responds to the NERC call for research on flooding from intense rainfall (FFIR) with a programme of focused research designed to advance general scientific understanding of the processes determining the probability, incidence, and impacts of FFIR.Such extreme rainfall events may only last for a few hours at most, but can generate terrifying and destructive floods. Their impact can be affected by a wide range factors (or processes) such as the location and intensity of the rainfall, the shape and steepness of the catchment it falls on, how much sediment is moved by the water and the vulnerability of the communities in the flood's path. Furthermore, FFIR are by their nature rapid, making it very difficult for researchers to 'capture' measurements during events. The complexity, speed and lack of field measurements on FFIR make it difficult to create computer models to predict flooding and often we are uncertain as to their accuracy. To address these issues, NERC launched the FFIR research programme. It aims to reduce the risks from surface water and flash floods by improving our identification and prediction of the meteorological (weather), hydrological (flooding) and hydro-morphological (sediment and debris moved by floods) processes that lead to FFIR. A major requirement of the programme is identifying how particular catchments may be vulnerable to FFIR, due to factors such as catchment area, shape, geology and soil type as well as land-use. Additionally, the catchments most susceptible to FFIR are often small and ungauged.Project SINATRA will address these issues in three stages: Firstly increasing our understanding of what factors cause FFIR and gathering new, high resolution measurements of FFIR; Secondly using this new understanding and data to improve models of FFIR so we can predict where they may happen - nationwide and; Third to use these new findings and predictions to provide the Environment Agency and over professionals with information and software they can use to manage FFIR, reducing their damage and impact to communities. In more detail, we will:1. Enhance scientific understanding of the processes controlling FFIR, by-(a) assembling an archive of past FFIR events in Britain and their impacts, as a prerequisite for improving our ability to predict future occurrences of FFIR.(b) making real time observations of flooding during flood events as well as post-event surveys and historical event reconstruction, using fieldwork and crowd-sourcing methods.(c) characterising the physical drivers for UK summer flooding events by identifying the large-scale atmospheric conditions associated with FFIR events, and linking them to catchment type.2. Develop improved computer modelling capability to predict FFIR processes, by-(a) employing an integrated catchment/urban scale modelling approach to FFIR at high spatial and temporal scales, modelling rapid catchment response to flash floods and their impacts in urban areas.(b) scaling up to larger catchments by improving the representation of fast riverine and surface water flooding and hydromorphic change (including debris flow) in regional scale models of FFIR.(c) improving the representation of FFIR in the JULES land surface model by integrating river routing and fast runoff processes, and performing assimilation of soil moisture and river discharge into the model run.3. Translate these improvements in science into practical tools to inform the public more effectively, by-(a) developing tools to enable prediction of future FFIR impacts to support the Flood Forecasting Centre in issuing new 'impacts-based' warnings about their occurrence.(b) developing a FFIR analysis tool to assess risks associated with rare events in complex situations involving incomplete knowledge, analogous to those developed for safety assessment in radioactive waste management.In so doing SINATRA will achieve NERC's science goals for the FFIR programme.