The state and fate of mountain permafrost and implications for debris supply in glacierised catchments

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Climate warming is pronounced is many mountainous regions, which is causing degradation of high altitude permafrost. In turn, permafrost degradation reduces slope stability, with implications for the magnitude and frequency of mass movements which can pose a hazard to life and play a key role in landscape evolution, particularly of the mountain cryosphere. Global permafrost zonation models provide a spatially extensive overview of the state of permafrost for a given reference period and can inform more detailed regional- and local-scale analysis, e.g. for providing broad-scale cryospheric context for mass movement inventories. Catchment-scale analysis using satellite- and ground-based observation and analysis can provide additional granularity which is key for developing a detailed understanding of cryospheric state, exploring links to geomorphic processes, and for informing catchment management plans (both from water resources and hazard management perspectives).The objectives of this project are:1 To update an existing global permafrost zonation model using climate reanalysis data and to simulate future permafrost zonation using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) trajectories;2 Use a land surface model to obtain higher spatiotemporal resolution estimates of permafrost degradation in select glacierised catchments (includes fieldwork component).3 Explore the implications of permafrost degradation and other preparatory and triggering factors for the continuous (e.g. small rockfalls) or episodic (e.g. rock avalanches) delivery of debris to glacierised catchments.