The Changing Polar Ionosphere: A Comparative Climatology of Solar Cycles 23 and 24

极地电离层通过太阳风与磁层的耦合以及由此产生的磁层、电离层和大气层之间的电动力相互作用对技术系统产生一系列影响。这些影响包括跨电离层卫星通信和点对点无线电通信的退化，超视距雷达的杂波效应，以及卫星拖曳水平的增加(和可预测性降低)。众所周知，这些影响受到太阳活动水平的强烈影响，因此也就是11年太阳活动周期的阶段。最近太阳活动的变化让科学界大吃一惊，因为最近的太阳活动极小期在时间上延长了，活动也比预测的要低得多。随着我们现在接近太阳活动最高值，我们看到太阳活动的增加，但这种活动的增加也低于预期。我们提议对变化的太阳周期对一些基本电离层特征施加的深刻变化进行广泛的统计调查，重点是太阳周期第23周，一个“标准”太阳周期，和最近的不寻常的太阳周期第24周之间的周期差异。此外，我们将把对太阳周期依赖性和周期间差异的分析扩展到一些电离层和大气特性，这些特性对跨电离层通信、卫星导航和雷达系统等关键技术的业务特性有直接影响。在界定和了解这些影响及其对太阳活动水平的依赖方面向前迈出的这一重大步骤，将使我们能够预测它们对极地电离层和大气层以及我们在极地地区运作的技术系统的影响。

The polar ionosphere has a range of effects on technological systems produced by the coupling of the solar wind with the magnetosphere, and the resulting electrodynamic interaction between magnetosphere, ionosphere and atmosphere. These effects include the degradation of trans-ionospheric satellite communications and point-to-point radio communications, clutter effects in over-the-horizon radars, and increased levels (and decreased predictability) of satellite drag.Such effects are known to be strongly influenced by the activity level of the sun, and hence the phase of the 11-year solar activity cycle. Recent changes in solar activity have taken the scientific community by surprise, in that the recent solar minimum was both extended in time, and much lower in activity than predicted. As we now approach solar maximum we see an increasing solar activity, but this rise in activity is also less than expected.We propose an extensive statistical investigation of the profound changes imposed on a number of fundamental ionospheric characteristics by the changing solar cycle, focussing on the inter-cycle differences between solar cycle 23, a "standard" solar cycle, and the most recent, unusual solar cycle 24. Furthermore, we will extend this analysis of solar cycle dependence and inter-cycle differences to a number of ionospheric and atmospheric characteristics which have a direct effect on the operational characteristics of key technologies such as trans-ionospheric communication, satellite navigation and radar systems. This major step forward in defining and understanding these effects and their dependence on the level of solar activity will allow a prediction of their consequences for the polar ionosphere and atmosphere, and for the technological systems we operate in the polar regions.