Metropole

其假设是，风险知识最好被理解为科学与社会、政治和文化背景共同产生的知识。虽然研究人员已经研究了可视化工具在决策中的作用，但还需要进行新的研究，以了解社会、文化和政治背景如何影响决策者和公众如何感知和应对大规模变化造成的潜在当地环境、经济和健康风险。该研究小组将为巴西、英国和美国的社区开发缩小规模的模型，并让利益攸关方和决策者参与参与式规划会议，以分析影响决策和区域适应能力的社会和文化因素。对于每个站点，我们将使用巴西和美国开发的最先进的可视化工具共同制作场景。数据包括过去100年的海平面、温度、风暴频率、降水和其他变量的变化，以及IPCC第五次AR情景下到2070年5-10年增量的高分辨率（10公里）预估。这些工具整合了最小局部地区的科学和经济数据，并说明了随着时间的推移对基础设施、健康、经济风险、适应方案和成本效益分析的潜在影响。社会研究将使用：1)调查来分析会议前后的价值观和信念，2)选择评估模型来研究会议中的风险/成本权衡，以及3)会议后的访谈来评估适应能力指数（在英国开发）。预期结果包括：将科学、经济和文化因素纳入适应规划的新框架；关于价值观和信仰在适应决策中的作用的见解；以及改善沿海社区公众参与策略的资源。

The hypothesis is that risk knowledge is best understood as being co-produced by science and by the social, political and cultural context. While researchers have studied the role of visualization tools in decision making, new research is needed to understand how the social, cultural and political context impacts how decision makers and the public perceive and respond to potential local environmental, economic and health risks due to large-scale change. The research team will develop downscaled models for communities in Brazil, the United Kingdom, and the United States and engage stakeholders and policymakers in participatory planning meetings to analyze the social and cultural factors that impact decision making and regional adaptive capacity. For each site, we will co-produce scenarios using state-of-the-art visualization tools developed in Brazil and the US. Data include changes in sea level, temperature, storm frequency, precipitation and other variables in the past 100 years and high resolution (10km) projections in 5-10 year increments to 2070 under the IPCC's 5th AR scenarios. The tools integrate scientific and economic data for the smallest local area, and illustrate potential impacts on infrastructure, health, economic risk, adaptation options, and cost-benefit analyses over time. The social research will use: 1) surveys to analyze values and beliefs prior to and after meetings, 2) choice evaluation models to study risk/cost trade-offs in the meeting, and 3) interviews after the meeting to assess the Adaptive Capacity Index (developed in the UK). Expected results include: a new framework to integrate scientific, economic and cultural factors into adaptation planning; insights on the role of values and beliefs in adaptation decision making; and resources to improve public engagement strategies in any coastal community.