Seasonal health and climate change resilience for ageing urban populations: the development of vulnerability indices for selected cities and prioritis

人们普遍认识到，与气候变化有关的极端天气事件频率和强度的变化可能对公众健康构成越来越大的风险。在拥有大量老年人的大城市尤其如此，这些老年人可能更容易受到极端天气事件的影响。老年人是一个迅速增长的弱势社会群体，其中有大量的慢性病和精神病患者以及孤立或无家可归的人。正是在这种背景下，我们考虑了极端天气事件对城市老龄化和老年人口的影响。全球城市人口比以往任何时候都多。转折点出现在2007年，当时超过50%的世界人口被认为生活在城市地区；到2030年，这一比例预计将上升到60%。一个特定城市所经历的极端天气事件的类型和影响将根据其所处的气候带和地理特征而有所不同。因此，了解不同时空尺度的城市气候数据和地理空间信息具有重要意义。与此同时，在过去的100年里，我们看到了预期寿命前所未有的增长：人们的寿命比历史上任何时候都要长。这可以被认为是一种现代全球现象。预计到2050年，全球22%的城市人口将超过65岁。65岁以上的老年人，特别是75岁以上的独居老人，最容易受到极端天气（特别是极端高温和寒冷）带来的风险。他们通常（但并非总是）缺乏健康、机动性、技术和社交网络，而且他们对极端温度的生理反应也不同于年轻、健全的人群，后者流动性更强，往往拥有更大、更多样化的社交网络。流行病学研究发现，年龄（65岁以上）是热相关健康风险的最重要决定因素之一。进一步的危险因素包括这部分社会中脱水、营养不良或肥胖的倾向。有证据表明，在极端高温事件期间和之后，老年人往往是风险最大的人群之一。我们的项目“城市老龄化人口的季节性健康和气候变化适应能力：选定城市脆弱性指数的制定和目标应对措施的优先顺序”是奥雅纳全球研究挑战的一部分。该项目旨在与来自学术界和私营部门、地方政府和非政府组织的卫生和气候变化专家组成的多学科网络合作，审查和比较不同的数据集和脆弱性指数编制方法，并确定和商定为伦敦、纽约和上海三个全球城市编制地方脆弱性指数的进程。我们的利益相关者团队由来自三个案例研究城市的城市规划和公共卫生政策制定者、地方政府和非政府组织的代表组成。这项工作将代表当前研究和实践的进步，因为它将主要关注老年人口，并将在伦敦开展的广泛工作的基础上，将其转移到纽约和上海。

t is widely recognised that climate change related alterations in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are likely to pose an increasing risk to public health. This is especially the case in major cities that have large numbers of elderly people who are potentially more vulnerable to extreme weather events. Elderly people comprise a rapidly growing and vulnerable group of society within which large populations of chronically and mentally ill, as well as isolated or homeless people exist. It is within this context that we consider the impact of extreme weather events on the urban ageing and elderly population.Globally more people than ever are living in cities than in rural areas. The turning point was in 2007 when more than 50% of the world's population was considered to live in urban areas; by 2030 this is expected to rise to 60%. The types and impacts of extreme weather events experienced in a particular city will vary based upon the climate zone within which it located and its geographical features. Therefore, it is important to have a good understanding of the city-specific climate data and geospatial information at a range of temporal and spatial scales.In parallel, over the past 100 years we have seen an unprecedented increase in life expectancy: people are living longer than at any point in history. This can be considered a modern global phenomenon. It is expected that by 2050, 22% of the global urban population will be over 65 years old. Elderly people over 65, especially those over 75 and living alone, are amongst the most vulnerable to the risks associated with extreme weather (especially extreme heat and cold). Often, but not always, they lack good health, mobility, access to technology and social networks and they also have a different physiological response to, for example, extremes in temperature than the younger, able-bodied, population who are more mobile and often have larger and more varied social networks. Epidemiological work has found that age (people over 65 years old) is one of the most significant determinants of heat-related health risk. Further risk factors include a propensity for dehydration, malnutrition or obesity in this section of society. Evidence has shown that during and after an extreme heat event, the elderly population tends to be amongst the most at risk.Our project 'Seasonal health and climate change resilience for ageing urban populations: the development of vulnerability indices for selected cities and prioritisation of targeted responses', forms part of the Arup Global Research Challenge. This project aims to work collaboratively with multi-disciplinary networks of health and climate change experts from academia and the private sector, local government and NGOs to review and compare different datasets and methods of vulnerability index development, and to define and agree upon a process to develop local vulnerability indices for three global cities: London, New York and Shanghai. Our stakeholder team consists of representatives of urban planning and public health policymakers, local government and NGOs from the three case study cities. This work will represent an advance in the current research and practice as it will focus primarily on older populations, and will build upon extensive work undertaken in London and transfer it to New York and Shanghai.