Climate of the LAst Millennium (CLAM): An Integrated Data-Model Approach to Reconstruct and Interpret Annual Variability in North Atlantic Circulation

北大西洋的海洋环流是多变的，在控制区域和全球气候方面起着关键作用。这种变化既有自然发生的，也有预期发生的，是对人类活动的反应。到目前为止，该系统的内部和强迫自然变化主要是在陆地档案和模型中，而不是在真实的海洋中。如果我们要正确地确定北大西洋环流中观察到的趋势，并建立强有力的预警系统，并计划适应未来变化，我们就必须了解这种变化的幅度、时间尺度、驱动因素和影响。在CLAM中，我们的目标是利用来自苏格兰西北部，N。冰岛和缅因州湾，以及高分辨率气候模式，以调查在过去的千年里驱动北大西洋环流模式变化的机制和强迫。这份提案是（NE/M002160/1，2014年1月，8级），其中我们解决了评审员强调的小问题，特别是我们：（i）消除实地工作风险-使用独立资金完成所有必要的样本收集;（ii）通过额外的初步模型代理分析进一步证明方法和潜在发现的强大性质;（iii）通过与英国气象局哈德利中心开展更深入的合作，产生更大的社会影响;（iv）通过节省相关成本，提高资金效益。

The ocean circulation of the North Atlantic is variable and pivotal in controlling regional and global climate. This variability occurs both naturally, and it is anticipated, in response to anthropogenic activity. Internal and forced natural variability in this system has so far largely been characterised in terrestrial archives and models rather than in the real ocean. It is critical that we understand the magnitude, timescale, drivers and impacts of this variability if we are to correctly attribute observed trends in the North Atlantic circulation, and develop robust early warning systems of, and plan adaptation to, future change. In CLAM we aim to utilise a network of robustly calibrated and verified absolutely dated sclerochronological proxy archives from NW Scotland, N. Iceland and the Gulf of Maine, together with high-resolution climate models, to investigate the mechanisms and forcings driving variability in the circulation patterns of the North Atlantic over the last millennium. This proposal is a resubmission (NE/M002160/1, Jan 2014, graded 8) in which we address minor concerns highlighted by the reviewers, notably we: (i) eliminate fieldwork risks - having completed all necessary sample collection using independent funding; (ii) further-demonstrate the powerful nature of the methodologies and potential findings though additional preliminary model-proxy analyses; (iii) greater societal impact via the development of a deeper collaboration with the Met Office Hadley Centre, and (iv) deliver improved value for money, through associated cost savings.