Securing Multidisciplinary UndeRstanding and Prediction of Hiatus and Surge events (SMURPHS)

目前气候的变化主要是因为人类活动排放的额外温室气体正在使地球变暖。由于未来气候变暖可能对社会造成损害，各国政府正在协调努力减少温室气体排放，以避免这些破坏性后果。然而，尽管大气温室气体浓度持续上升，但自1990年代以来，地球表面变暖的速度有所下降。虽然人们很容易找到一个简单的原因来解释全球表面变暖的放缓(或“间歇期”)，但气候系统极其复杂，有许多因素可以解释表面温度记录中的块状和凹凸不平的现象，其中还包括变暖速度的增加(或“激增”)。我们拟议的研究计划的目标是更充分地了解所有促成因素如何解释过去的中断和激增(H/S)事件，这最终将有助于改进对未来几十年和遥远未来气候变化的预测。H/S事件的潜在原因包括：由于大气、海洋和陆地之间的复杂相互作用而导致的自然(所谓的非强迫)气候变化；火山喷发或太阳亮度变化导致的自然气候变化；由于自然变化或人为因素导致的热量进入深海的变化；人类活动引起的甲烷等气体排放的变化；温度观测分布的限制，以至于间歇在一定程度上是不完美观测的产物。H/S事件很可能是多种因素共同作用的结果，而不是单一的原因。这就是为什么需要一个具有广泛专业知识的大型团队来一起评估不同的流程。我们的项目，确保多学科理解和预测间歇和涌浪事件(SMURPHS)汇集了来自9个英国研究所的研究人员的综合社区，他们得到了包括英国气象局在内的5个项目合作伙伴的支持，他们是大气、海洋和陆地表面的专家。SMURPHS有3个广泛的目标，通过6个研究主题实现，这些主题利用了理论、观测和详细的计算机模拟。目标1是建立一个从大气和海洋之间的能量运动来解释H/S事件的基本框架，并确定H/S事件的特征和相似性。目标2是在考虑人为和自然因素的情况下，了解H/S事件的触发机制并延长其长度。目标3是评估H/S事件是否可以预测，以及需要哪些信息来对未来几十年的气候进行短期预测，这对社会如何适应变化非常重要。为了实现这些目标，来自一系列不同学科的科学家将致力于这些可能性的每一种，并在整个团队中交流他们的发现。SMURPHS将对其结果进行广泛的综合。SMURPHS将有许多受益者。在全球科学界之外，增进对H/S事件的了解，对于制定控制未来温室气体排放和有效适应气候变化的政策，在国家和国际层面都很重要。政府间气候变化专门委员会(气专委)的评估对国际和国家两级的气候政策制定产生了深远影响。参与SMURPHS的科学家对政府间气候变化专门委员会以前的报告做出了重大贡献，SMURPHS的科学和科学家将对未来的此类评估做出重大贡献。

Climate is currently changing mostly because of additional greenhouse gases, emitted through human activity, which are heating up the planet. Since future warming of climate is likely to cause damage to societies, governments are coordinating efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to avoid these damaging consequences. However, despite the continuing rises in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the rate of warming of the Earth's surface has declined somewhat since the 1990s. While it is tempting to find a simple reason for this slowing (or "hiatus") in global surface warming, the climate system is extremely complex and there are many factors which can explain the lumps and bumps in the surface temperature record which also include increases (or "surges") in the rate of warming. The goal of our proposed programme of research is to understand much more fully how all the contributing factors can explain past hiatus and surge (H/S) events and this will ultimately help improve predictions of future climate change over the coming decades and far into the future.The potential causes of H/S events includes: natural (so-called unforced) climate variability, due to complex interplay between the atmosphere, oceans and land; natural climate change due to volcanic eruptions or changes in the brightness of the sun; changes in how heat is moved into the deep oceans due to natural variations or human-caused factors; changes in emissions of gases such as methane due to human activity; limitations in the distribution of temperature observations, such that the hiatus is partly an artefact of imperfect observations. Rather than one single cause it is likely that H/S events are caused by a combination of factors. This is why a large team with a broad range of expertise is required to evaluate the different processes together. Our project, Securing Multidisciplinary UndeRstanding and Prediction of Hiatus and Surge events (SMURPHS) has brought together a comprehensive community of researchers from 9 UK institutes supported by 5 project partners including the Met Office who are experts in the atmosphere, the oceans and the land surface.SMURPHS has 3 broad objectives, achieved through 6 research themes, which exploit theory, observations and detailed computer modelling. Objective 1 is to build a basic framework for interpreting H/S events in terms of energy moving between the atmosphere and ocean and to determine characteristics of and similarities between H/S events. Objective 2 is to understand mechanisms that could trigger H/S events and extend their length, considering both human and natural factors. Objective 3 is to assess whether H/S events can be predicted and what information is needed for near-term prediction of climate over coming decades which is important for how societies adapt to change. To meet these objectives scientists from a range of different disciplines will work on each of these possibilities and communicate their findings across the team. SMURPHS will produce a wide-ranging synthesis of its results.SMURPHS will have many beneficiaries. Beyond the global scientific community, improved understanding of H/S events is important at national and international levels for designing policies to control future greenhouse gas emissions and for effective adaptation to climate change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments have deeply influenced climate policy development at the international and national levels. Scientists involved in SMURPHS have contributed significantly to previous IPCC reports, and SMURPHS science and scientists would contribute significantly to future such assessments.