Mechanisms and consequences of tipping points in lowland agricultural landscapes

生态系统为人类提供了许多好处，包括粮食和木材生产、娱乐场所、作物授粉、淡水和碳储存，这有助于减少气候变化的风险。人们也受益于野生动物，包括植物和动物物种，无论是在它们的美学价值方面，还是从这些物种在它们所属的生态系统中发挥的功能作用方面。由于气候变化、空气污染、土地利用模式的变化和其他形式的人类干扰的综合影响，英国的许多生态系统和世界上许多其他地方的生态系统目前都处于危险之中。这些因素可以相互作用，导致生态系统发生重大变化，从而影响它们为人类提供利益的能力。需要进行研究，以确定哪些生态系统面临发生快速转变的风险，以便确定适当的管理和政策应对措施。还需要通过提供生态系统惠益方面的变化，了解这种生态系统“临界点”对人类的潜在影响。该项目旨在通过研究英国南部多塞特郡的景观来提供这些信息。在这里，我们将研究80年来在各种不同类型的生态系统中收集的数据，以分析已经发生的变化。我们将使用这些信息来查看过去是否发生过临界点，或者将来是否可能发生可能影响人类社会的临界点。我们还将通过比较生态系统沿着环境退化的梯度来研究临界点。此外，我们将探讨Dorset已经发生或未来可能发生的环境退化是否会影响就业和经济发展前景。我们将检验这样一种观点，即气候变化、空气污染和土地利用变化等因素可能导致生态系统出现临界点，从而产生重大经济后果。我们将使用实地数据和计算机模型相结合的方法来实现这一目标，我们将使用这些数据来预测这种影响如何在景观尺度上发生。该项目将有助于加深对英国大部分典型农业景观中主要生态变化的理解，以及它们的潜在影响。这些信息对于确定哪些生态系统特别面临临界点的风险，导致这种临界点的过程是什么，以及它们对人类社会可能产生的影响是有价值的。我们还将研究今后如何通过制定适当的管理和政策对策来避免这些问题。

Ecosystems provide a number of benefits to people, including food and timber production, areas for recreation, pollination of crops, fresh water, and the storage of carbon, which can help reduce the risk of climate change. People also benefit from wildlife, including both plant and animal species, both in terms of their aesthetic value, and from the functional role that such species play in the ecosystems of which they are a part. Many ecosystems in the UK, as in many other parts of the world, are currently at risk because of the combined effects of climate change, aerial pollution, changing patterns of land use and other forms of human disturbance. These factors can interact with each other, leading to major changes in ecosystems, which can affect their ability to provide benefits to people. Research is needed to identify which ecosystems are at risk of rapid transitions occurring, so that appropriate management and policy responses can be identified. Information is also needed on the potential impacts of such ecosystem "tipping points" on humans, through changes in the provision of ecosystem benefits. This project aims to provide this information, by studying the landscapes of Dorset, a southern English county. Here we will examine data that have been collected over a period of 80 years in a variety of different types of ecosystem, to analyse the changes that have occurred. We will use this information to see whether any tipping points have occurred in the past, or might occur in the future, which could affect human society. We will also study tipping points by comparing ecosystems along gradients of environmental degradation. In addition, we will explore whether the environmental degradation that has already happened in Dorset, or might happen in future, could affect employment and prospects for economic development. We will test the idea that factors such as climate change, aerial pollution and land use change could cause a tipping point in ecosystems, which could have major economic consequences. We will achieve this using a combination of field data and computer models, which we will use to forecast how such impacts might occur at the landscape scale. The project will help increase understanding of how major ecological changes occur in agricultural landscapes typical of much of the UK, and their potential impacts. This information will be of value for identifying which ecosystems are particularly at risk of tipping points, what are the processes that cause such tipping points, and what the implications of them might be for human society. We will also examine how such problems might be averted in future, through the development of appropriate management and policy responses.