RCUK-TUBITAK: Understanding volcanic risk in Turkey for improved emergency response and disaster risk reduction

土耳其10座活火山的地质和历史记录表明，其中几座火山可能发生重大爆炸性喷发。超过400万人居住在活火山30公里以内，超过1500万人居住在活火山100公里以内。包括开塞利和迪亚巴基在内的几个主要城市都有很高的火山风险。在对全球火山风险分布的评估中，在95个火山活跃国家中，土耳其在整体火山威胁中排名第14位，反映出人口暴露程度高。土耳其最后一次重大火山灾难发生在1840年的阿拉拉特山，当时估计有1900人丧生。然而，根据全球统计和对土耳其火山喷发记录的初步分析，本世纪有70%的可能性发生一次大喷发。土耳其容易受到火山灾害的影响，原因是受影响人口众多，政府官员和社区缺乏应对火山紧急情况的经验，火山监测非常有限，以及缺乏关于火山灾害和风险的知识。该项目旨在通过促进制定适当的火山应急管理计划和减少灾害风险，提高土耳其的复原力。该项目将使土耳其的合作伙伴能够向具有火山紧急情况直接经验的伙伴学习，以便建立防备工作。因此，该项目汇集了负责调查和处理地球物理灾害的土耳其当局矿物研究和勘探总局、布里斯托尔大学地球科学学院和蒙特塞拉特火山观测站。该项目还将通过由布里斯托尔大学共同主持的全球火山模型网络，从全球火山学界汲取专业知识。通过该项目促进的更好的合作将通过旨在分享在火山活动情况下获得的经验的互访来实现知识转移。其目的是促进学习和工具开发，以提高土耳其国内应对未来火山动荡和喷发的能力。人们对土耳其火山的喷发历史了解甚少。要解决的一个关键问题和第一步是通过文献研究、历史记录、实地研究和抽样以及放射性定年法来提高对过去活动的理解。将制定未来高风险火山爆发的情景，为紧急情况规划提供信息。由于安全局势，进入土耳其东部受到限制。然而，这就需要创造一种创新的解决办法来开展对偏远或难以到达的火山的研究，这将涉及使用诸如卫星和航空图像以及InSAR和识别模拟系统等各种工具的遥感。在土耳其开发的这些工具可以应用于由于安全问题或资源有限而无法进入火山的其他国家。我们将确定高风险火山和社区，通过开发新的方法来确定脆弱人口和人口暴露，并确定关键基础设施。这将使项目集中在高风险地点。我们将通过在一个高风险火山购买和安装关键监测设备来提高土耳其的监测能力，从而大大提高预警能力。将提供监测技术、解释监测信号和InSAR数据方面的培训。该项目还将通过对当地社区、科学家、当局和应急管理人员的教育来建立复原力。MTA将促进与这些团体的接触，包括制作关于火山危害和风险的教育交流工具。将与有关当局进行模拟演习，以测试应急计划，并将吸取的经验教训提交给总理灾害和应急管理局。

Geological and historical records of the ten active volcanoes in Turkey indicate potential in several of them for major explosive eruptions. Over 4 million people live within 30 km of an active volcano and over 15 million live within 100 km. Several major cities have high exposure to volcanic risk including Kayseri and Diyarbaki. In an assessment of the global distribution of volcanic risk Turkey ranked at 14th in overall volcanic threat out of 95 volcanically active countries, reflecting high population exposure. The last major volcanic disaster in Turkey occurred in 1840 from Mount Ararat, when an estimated 1900 people lost their lives. However, there is a 70% chance of a major eruption in this century based on global statistics and preliminary analysis of Turkish eruption records. Turkey is vulnerable to volcanic hazards due to the large exposed population, lack of experience of public officials and communities with volcanic emergencies, very limited volcano monitoring, and lack of knowledge on volcanic hazards and risk. This project seeks to increase resilience in Turkey by contributing to development of appropriate volcanic emergency management plans and disaster risk reduction. The project will enable partners in Turkey to learn from those with direct experience of volcanic emergencies in order to build preparedness. This project therefore brings together the General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration (MTA), the authority in Turkey charged with investigating and handling geophysical hazards, the School of Earth Sciences at the University of Bristol and the Montserrat Volcano Observatory. This project will also draw from expertise across the global volcanological community through the Global Volcano Model network, co-chaired by University of Bristol. Improved collaborations fostered through this project will enable knowledge transfer via exchange visits designed to share experiences gained in volcanically active situations. The aim is to facilitate learning and tool development to increase the ability within Turkey to respond to future volcanic unrest and eruption. The eruptive histories of volcanoes in Turkey are very poorly understood. A key issue and first step to be addressed is to improve understanding of past activity, through literature studies, historical records, field studies and sampling, and radiometric dating. Scenarios for future eruptions of high-risk volcanoes will developed to inform planning for emergencies. Access in Eastern Turkey is limited due to the security situation. This, however, generates a need to create an innovative solution to developing studies at remote or inaccessible volcanoes, which will involve remote sensing using various tools such as satellite and aerial imagery and InSAR and identifying analogue systems. These tools developed in Turkey can be applied to other countries with volcanoes made inaccessible by security issues or limited resources. We will identify high-risk volcanoes and communities, through development of new methods for identifying vulnerable populations and population exposure, with identification of critical infrastructure. This will enable the focussing of the project at high-risk sites. We will increase monitoring capacity in Turkey through purchase and installation of crucial monitoring equipment at a high-risk volcano to significantly enhance the ability to give early warning. Training in monitoring techniques, interpretation of the monitoring signals and InSAR data will be provided. The project will also build resilience through the education of the local communities, scientists, authorities and emergency managers. Engagement with these groups will be facilitated by MTA and includes making educational communication tools about volcanic hazards and risk. A simulation exercise will be run to test emergency plans with relevant authorities, and lessons learned will be delivered to the Prime Ministry Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD).