Desperately Seeking Space for Nature: a spatial analysis of biodiversity in changing landscape

面对不断变化的自然环境，重要的是要了解人类活动对环境的影响，反过来，不断变化的环境对人类福祉的影响。生物多样性-生物体、生态系统和基因的多样性-特别令人感兴趣，因为它在生态系统吸收外部冲击和变化，例如与气候变化有关的极端情况，并在这些冲击下继续发挥作用方面发挥作用。生物多样性本身对人们到自然保护区寻找稀有和独特的物种，如鸟类，是有价值的。在生态系统造福人类的能力方面，它也发挥着一些尚未完全理解的作用，例如支持提供食物和木材，或生态系统净化水、调节洪水和空气质量的能力。作为NERC创新实习的一部分，该项目将由英国鸟类学信托基金会（BTO）的研究人员进行。该项目将侧重于将BTO/JNCC/RSPB繁殖鸟类调查（BBS）数据与研究人员从其家乡机构获得的详细英国数据集相结合。这包括一个大型的和可理解的空间英国数据集的环境，大气和土地利用和土地覆盖数据，以前用于英国国家生态系统评估（英国NEA）。研究人员将与BTO合作开发一套新的预测模型，旨在通过单一建模框架，了解土地利用变化以及其他环境和经济变量导致的鸟类丰度变化的驱动因素。该项目特别关注林地和农田鸟类指标的物种。这些物种和相关指标是特意选择的，以提供土地利用变化对生物多样性的影响的指标。英国政府使用这些指标来报告其国际和国家对保护目标的承诺，例如英国生物多样性2020计划或CBD的生物多样性战略计划。与一般BTO工作的区别在于，BTO专注于将鸟类建模与经济分析相结合，为BBS数据提供了新的视角。这种整合将有两种类型。首先，鸟类模型将与研究人员的博士研究工作相结合，研究土地利用变化对鸟类多样性和丰度的影响。这两项分析的结合将有助于了解如何将有限的公共资源分配给土地使用变化干预措施，以提供最大的环境和经济效益。其次，鸟类建模将包括一个新的生物多样性模块，用于研究人员所在机构开发的一系列生态系统服务的综合模型（TIM），该模型以前曾用于为英国政策提供建议。新模块将扩展以前的工作，这是在英国NEA的背景下完成的，并将有助于更好地理解五组生态系统服务与生物多样性的相互作用，并/或允许限制TIM的成果与特定的生物多样性目标（例如：本地鸟类多样性不会减少）作为NERC创新实习的一部分进行的研究旨在在政策和学术方面产生重大影响。考虑到将生态分析与经济数据相结合的目的，这项研究将有助于现有的政策咨询，并与国家政策有关。鉴于该研究的跨学科性质和参与研究人员的先前记录，该研究很可能会在领先的学术期刊上发表，如PNAS或Science。这项工作将主要在BTO位于特福德的办公室进行，由BTO的Gavin Wardena博士，UEA的Silvia Ferrini博士和埃克塞特大学的Bateman教授监督。实习期预计为6个月。

In face of changing natural environment it is important to understand the impact of human activities on the environment and, in turn, the impact of changing environment on human well-being. Biodiversity - the diversity of living organisms, ecosystems and genes - is of a particular interest, as it plays a role in the way ecosystems can absorb external shocks and changes, such as the extremes associated with climate change, and continue their functioning despite these shocks. Biodiversity itself is of value to people visiting nature reserves in search of rare and unique species such as birds. It also plays some, yet not fully understood, role in ecosystems' ability to provide benefits to people - for example to support provision of food and timber or ecosystems' ability to purify water and regulate floods and air quality.The project undertaken as part of the NERC innovation internship will be conducted by the researcher at the British Trust of Ornithology (BTO). The project will focus on combining the BTO/JNCC/RSPB Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data with a detailed UK dataset to which the researcher has access from his home institutions. This comprise a large and comprehensible spatial UK dataset of environmental, atmospheric and land use and land cover data previously employed for UK National Ecosystem Assessment (UK NEA). Working with the BTO, the researcher will develop a new set of predictive models, aiming to provide an understanding of the drivers of change in bird abundance as results of changes in land use and other environmental and economic variables in a single modelling framework.In particular the project focuses on species comprising Woodland and Farmland bird indicators. These species and associated indicators are purposely chosen to provide indications of the impacts that land use change has on biodiversity in general. The UK government uses these indicators for reporting on its international and national commitments to conservation targets, such as UK Biodiversity 2020 plan or CBD's Strategic Plan for Biodiversity.The distinguishing factor from general BTO's work is the focus on integration of the bird modelling with economic analyses, providing a novel perspective on the BBS data. This integration will be of two types. Firstly, the bird models will be integrated with the researcher's PhD work on valuing preferences for land use change impacting on birds' diversity and abundance. The integration of the two analyses will allow an understanding of where limited public resources can be allocated for land use change interventions to provide greatest benefits in both environmental and economic terms. Secondly, the bird modelling will comprise a new biodiversity module for The Integrated Model (TIM) of a range of ecosystems services that was developed at researcher's home institution and was previously used to advise UK policy. The new module will expand on the previous work, which was done in the context of UK NEA, and will allow better understanding of the interplay of five sets of ecosystem services with biodiversity and/or allow restricting the TIM's outcomes with given biodiversity targets (e.g. no loss of local bird diversity).The research undertaken as part of the NERC innovation internship is aiming to have a high impact both in terms of policy and academia. Given the aim of integrating the ecological analyses with economic data, the research will contribute to existing policy advice and is of relevance to national policy. The research is likely to have a potential for publication in leading academic journals, such as PNAS or Science, given the interdisciplinary nature of the research and the previous track of records of the researchers involved.This work will be conducted predominantly at the BTO's offices in Thetford, under the supervision of Dr. Gavin Siriwardena at BTO, Dr. Silvia Ferrini at UEA and Prof. Bateman at the University of Exeter. The internship is projected to last 6 months.