Towards a Fire Early Warning System for Indonesia (ToFEWSI)

2015年的严重厄尔尼诺事件导致印尼泥炭地火灾严重和破坏性增加，突显出迫切需要开发业务系统来预测潜在的严重火灾事件，以减轻火灾和雾霾的影响。10个东盟国家已正式同意控制泥炭地和森林火灾，迫切需要一个早期火灾预警系统：我们在这项提案中解决了这一需求。使用最先进的建模工具，如ECMWF的System 4季节性预报模型，一个可操作的预测危险燃烧条件的早期预警系统已经触手可及，但目前由于对泥炭湿度波动对火灾的影响知之甚少，特别是在极端干旱期间，1997-98年和2015年的厄尔尼诺事件--有记录以来最强和第二强--凸显了这一点。印度尼西亚目前的大多数火灾都是故意焚烧土地造成的，这一人为因素意味着焚烧可能会受到政策和改变的土地管理做法的影响。在印度尼西亚，将科学研究转化为循证政策以及官方对焚烧的管制和限制效果不佳，需要采取新的办法。我们计划开发一种新的火险科学预测工具，并影响政策和消防法规：紧急科学和政策研究的新组合。该项目将开发一套基于气候、水文和代理人的模拟，以1997年至2014年期间的计算和观测为基础预测泥炭火灾的发生率，并将使用2015年厄尔尼诺事件作为预测工具的基准。我们的工作假设是，如果政策没有提供激励措施，与干泥炭相关的火灾风险增加不会引发当地土地所有者在使用火时所采取的管理做法的适当改变。我们的预期成果是：*泥炭地火灾发生的业务模型，基于热带泥炭地水文模型、基于代理人的模型、从最先进的再分析数据和季节性预报以及地球观测数据得出的季节性气候数据。*基于季节性气候预测的泥炭地火灾预警系统。*更全面地了解气候、社会经济和地理因素如何相互作用推动泥炭地火灾。*基于证据的政策工具，以减少苏门答腊省廖内省每年的火灾数量和燃烧面积。*就印尼新的减少火灾管理策略和政策提出循证建议。预报系统将以网络为基础，并可供使用，预测泥炭地火灾发生的风险，最长可达三个月，以便有足够的时间在社区中传播即将发生的危险的意识，并在有需要时调动灭火资源和其他防火措施。考虑泥炭地火灾发生的非气候驱动因素至关重要，因为这将有助于我们捕捉到不同地区表现出相似气候状况的火灾的时空模式。非气候驱动因素也是制定缓解行动的最易处理的手段。我们将结合我们在气候、社会经济和地理因素方面的工作结果，生成泥炭地火灾发生的多因素模型。示范系统将根据该地区各机构、市政当局和公司的业务需要，与印度尼西亚利益攸关方密切合作开发。主要利益攸关方包括印度尼西亚泥炭地恢复机构、印度尼西亚部、东盟区域雾霾支助股、当地社区、林业公司、当地和国际研究人员。模型系统将足够强大和简单，供我们的印尼利益相关者内部日常使用，他们将接管系统，并在自己的服务器上运行和维护它。

The severe El Niño episode of 2015 led to a major and damaging increase in Indonesian peatland fire, highlighting an urgent need to develop operational systems to forecast potentially severe fire events in order to mitigate the impacts of fire and haze. 10 ASEAN states have formally agreed to control peatland and forest fires and urgently need an early fire warning system: a need that we address in this proposal. An operational 'early warning' system for forecasting dangerous burning conditions is within reach using state-of-the-art modelling tools, such as the ECMWF's System 4 seasonal forecast model, but is currently hampered by insufficient knowledge about the influence of fluctuations in peat moisture on fire, particularly during periods of extreme drought, highlighted by the 1997-98 and 2015 El Niño episodes- the strongest and second strongest on record. The majority of present-day fires in Indonesia result from deliberate burning for land clearance, and this human factor means that burning can be influenced by policy and altered land management practice. The translation of scientific research into evidence-based policy and the official regulation and restriction of burning do not work well in Indonesia and new approaches are needed. We plan to both develop a new scientific forecasting tool for fire danger and to influence policy and fire regulations: a novel combination of urgent science and policy research.This project will develop a suite of climate-, hydrological- and agent-based modelling to predict the incidence of peat fires based on computations and observations for the period 1997 to 2014, and will use the 2015 El Niño event to benchmark the forecast tools. Our working hypothesis is that the increased fire risk associated with dry peat does not trigger appropriate changes in the management practices adopted by local landowners in their use of fire, if there are no incentives provided by policy. Our anticipated outputs are:* An operational model of peatland fire occurrence, based on a tropical peatland hydrology model, an agent-based model, and seasonal climate data derived from state-of-the-art reanalysis data and seasonal forecasts, and Earth Observation Data.* An operational early fire warning system for peatlands based on seasonal climate forecasts.* A more complete understanding of how climate, socio-economic and geographic factors interact to drive peatland fires.* Evidence-based policy tools for reducing the number of fires and area burned each year in Riau province, Sumatra. * Evidence-based proposals towards new Indonesian fire reduction management strategies and policy input.The forecasting system will be web-based and accessible, and will predict the risk of peatland fire occurrence up to three months ahead, enabling sufficient time to spread awareness of the impending risk through the community, and to mobilise fire-fighting resources and other fire prevention measures if required. Consideration of non-climate drivers of peatland fire occurrence is critically important because this will help us capture the spatio-temporal patterns in fire in different regions displaying similar climate regimes. Non-climate driven factors also present the most tractable means to develop mitigation actions. We will combine the results of our work on climate, socio-economic and geographic factors to generate a multi-factorial model for peatland fire occurrence. The model system will be developed in close collaboration with Indonesian stakeholders following the operational needs of agencies, municipalities and companies in the area. Key stakeholders include the Indonesian peatland restoration agency, Indonesia ministry, ASEAN Regional Haze Support Unit, local communities, forestry companies, local and international researchers. The model system will be robust and simple enough for in-house daily use by our Indonesian stakeholders, who will take over the system, and run and maintain it on their own servers.