Between a rock and a wet place: exploring historical trajectories of exposure, governance and tenure to build resilience to multiple hazards in SIDS

韧性建设需要灾害风险管理（DRM）的综合方法，以确定重叠部分，并利用政治支持，采取措施改善预警系统，鼓励适应，并在可持续发展的背景下改善一系列危险事件的恢复。随着气候变化，加快这种一体化对于改善应对日益加剧的多重冲击和风险至关重要。小岛屿发展中国家的需要更为迫切，因为这些国家与外界隔绝，土地供应有限，各种复杂的环境危害和有限的资源基础进一步加剧了它们面临的风险。在本提案中，我们建议需要“所有危险”的方法来建立复原力，并测试如果将这些方法放在特定的历史和文化背景中（通过这些背景在各个小岛屿发展中国家建立了土地使用模式）将更有效的论点，以便评估风险是如何产生的以及灾害风险管理反应是如何演变的。我们在太平洋和加勒比海的两个岛屿上进行了测试，特别关注多重灾害的暴露和物理脆弱性，并分析了影响权属和治理过程的历史因素，以探索这些因素如何导致人口暴露增加、物理脆弱性增加以及有害的政治和文化反应。我们特别感兴趣的是不同风险之间的相互作用，以及在陆上和海上资源和权属上隐含的竞争压力。我们正在采取“所有危害”的方法进行分析，以确定可以缓解这些压力的战略和投资，并鼓励对多种陆地和海洋危害的长期恢复能力。我们将这些措施称为具有“协同效益”的DRM投资，这意味着最初针对特定类型危害的一项行动可以进行调整，并用于在降低风险方面产生联合、多重和/或同时的效益。我们将通过制定未来情景和一种模拟影响的方法来确定有可能减少多种危害风险的措施，这种方法可以测试不同DRM投资的收益（在避免损失方面）。这两个岛屿被选择来试验这种整体方法，它们面临着一系列的环境危害，它们有殖民和帝国的历史，也有一些相似之处，但也有不同之处。在这些环境中获得见解将使我们能够更好地了解将这种方法应用于世界上其他小岛屿发展中国家的潜力，包括在印度洋。这项研究还将对实施《2015-2030年仙台减少灾害风险框架》（SFDRR）产生影响，通过加强对过去和未来灾害暴露与发展之间联系的认识，并确定小岛屿发展中国家克服资源限制和建立抵御多重冲击和压力的能力的方案，将其与可持续发展目标和《巴黎气候变化协定》中的复原力目标更紧密地联系起来。

Resilience building requires integrated approaches to disaster risk management (DRM) to identify overlaps and leverage political support for measures that improve early warning systems, encourage adaptations and improve recovery from a range of hazardous events within the context of sustainable development. As our climate changes, accelerating such integration is paramount to improve responses to intensifying and multiple shocks and risks. The need is even more acute for Small Island Developing States, where isolation, limited land availability, a complex range of environmental hazards and limited resource base further intensify their exposure to risk. In this proposal we suggest that 'all hazards' approaches to building resilience are needed and test the thesis that these will be more effective if placed within the particular historical and cultural contexts through which land use patterns were established in individual SIDS, in order to assess how risk is created and disaster risk management responses evolve.We test this on two islands in the Pacific and the Caribbean by focussing particularly on exposure and physical vulnerability to multiple hazards, and analysing historical factors that have shaped tenure and governance processes in order to explore how these may have contributed to increased exposure of populations and physical vulnerability to hazards as well as detrimental political and cultural responses. We are particularly interested in the interactions between differing hazards and the implicit competing pressures on resources and tenure, both on- and offshore. We are taking an 'all-hazards' approach to this analysis, to identify strategies and investments that can relieve these pressures and encourage long-term resilience to multiple land and marine-based hazards. We refer to these measures as DRM investments with 'co-benefits', meaning that one action, originally intended for a particular type of hazard, can be adapted and used to produce joint, multiple and/or simultaneous benefits in terms of reducing risk. We will identify measures that have the potential to reduce risk to multiple hazards through the development of future scenarios and an approach to modelling impacts that tests the benefits (in terms of loss avoidance) of different DRM investments. The two islands selected to trial this holistic approach are exposed to a range of environmental hazards, and have colonial and imperial histories and sets of institutions to address risk with some similarities but also differences. Drawing insights across these settings will allow us to better understand the potential for applying this approach to other SIDS around the world, including in the Indian Ocean. This research will also have implications for implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 (SFDRR), linking it more closely with resilience targets in the Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Climate Change Agreement by enhancing knowledge of the links between past and future hazard exposure and development, and identifying options for overcoming resource constraints in SIDS and building resilience to multiple shocks and stresses.