PROSPECTIVE AFTERSHOCK FORECASTING OF THE NORCIA 2016 EARTHQUAKE SEQUENCE, CENTRAL APENNINES, ITALY

2016年8月24日01：36：33 UTC，意大利诺尔恰发生6.2级地震，造成290多人死亡，500多人受伤，约2,500名当地居民无家可归。这次地震是由沿着意大利半岛的亚平宁山脉的一个正断层运动引起的。过去，该地区曾发生过类似破裂类型的大规模破坏性地震，最近一次是2009年的M=6.4拉奎拉地震，震中位于南纬43公里处。诺尔恰地震发生后，由英国地质调查局领导的英国科学小组与爱丁堡大学一起，与国家地质和火山研究所（INGV）合作，部署了一个高密度的临时地震网络来研究余震序列。到目前为止，英国有26个地震记录站与INGV网络完全集成，这将使高精度更新的地震目录能够获得更大的区域覆盖范围和更高的震级灵敏度。在未来6个月内收集的数据集将成为余震预测模型开发的基础，并根据国际协议对其进行透明测试。余震预测是基于我们对地震触发机制的理解和更广泛地区以前余震序列的经验知识。为了确定触发假设背后的优点和缺点，并确保新知识将被传递，以改善全球范围内的余震预报业务，我们有必要使用广泛接受的统计指标来验证我们的预测。

On 24/08/2016, 01:36:33 UTC an earthquake of magnitude M=6.2 occurred at Norcia, Italy, killing more than 290 people, injuring 500 more, and leaving some 2,500 local inhabitants without a home. The earthquake resulted from movement on a normal fault in the Apennines mountain chain that runs along the Italian peninsula. Large destructive earthquakes of similar rupture style have occurred throughout this region in the past, most recently the 2009 M=6.4 L'Aquila event, 43 km S of the recent epicenter.Immediately after the Norcia earthquake, a UK scientific team led by the British Geological Survey, together with the University of Edinburgh, coordinated with the Instituto Nationale Geophysica e Vulcanologia (INGV) to enable the deployment of a high -density temporary seismic network to study the aftershock sequence. To date, 26 UK seismic recording stations are fully integrated with the INGV network and this will enable a high-accuracy updated earthquake catalogue to be derived with a greater regional coverage and improved magnitude sensitivity. The dataset collected within the next 6 months will be the basis of the development of aftershock forecast models and their transparent testing following international protocols. Aftershock forecasts are based on our understanding of earthquake triggering mechanisms and the empirical knowledge from previous aftershock sequence in the broader region. A validation of our forecasts using widely accepted statistical metrics is necessary in order to determine the strengths and weaknesses behind our triggering hypothesis and ensure that new knowledge will be passed on to improve operational aftershock forecasting world-wide.