Consensus forecasts: integrating indigenous knowledge with scientific weather and climate information to strengthen resilience to climate change.

气候变化正在对东非和西非的极端气候产生影响。尽管有大量的气候和天气观测和模拟数据，但在布基纳法索的土著社区，由于缺乏可用和及时的科学气候信息，传统的天气预报仍然是天气和气候信息的主要可获取和可信来源之一。英国气象局（Met Office）以及非政府组织和政府机构认识到当地观测系统和分析天气和气候现象的补充框架的价值，但还没有能够利用这些框架作为更好地传播科学推导或知情预测的手段。该项目的目的是让社会科学研究人员与英国气象局合作开发一套工具，解决知识差距，并记录机构最佳实践，以达成共识预测，以加强当地社区对气候变化的适应能力。认识到以社区为基础的、集体拥有的土著知识和实践的重要性，气象局编制了一套布基纳法索北部现有传统预测实践的数据集（Gallo和Henley， 2017年），作为Zaman Lebidi布基纳法索BRACED（建立对极端气候和灾害的恢复和适应能力）项目的合作伙伴。已经对该数据集进行了简短的定性分析，但需要进一步的工作来了解不同指标在传播科学气候信息中的使用。这一安排允许伦敦国王学院（KCL）的专业知识协助气象局在社会经济和文化背景下放置有关土著知识和预测指标的数据，以便使其对气候科学家有用和相关。目标是在布基纳法索的工作基础上开发一种工具、一种参与性方法和最佳实践材料，这些材料可以被气象局用于其他领域，并与其他国家气象部门（NMS）合作。研究人员将协助英国气象局确定最有用和最相关的本土指标，以突出它们的重要性和潜在应用，作为共同制作当地“共识预报”过程的一部分，这是一种将本土和科学气候和天气信息结合起来的方法，以便当地农村人口能够做出明智的决定，并实现更好的生计。研究人员还将通过拼凑的视角记录正式和非正式机构（例如气象局、国家气象系统、社区和学术界）之间不断演变的关系（Cleaver, 2012）。KCL与英国气象局之间的合作是一种应用社会科学研究来帮助气候科学家充分利用现有资源、在地方尺度上对其进行背景化并整合参与性方法的方式。这项研究还将着眼于未来潜在的研究需求，这些需求可以通过未来的NERC研究来解决。这可以加强和改善KCL与英国气象局之间的长期关系。这项研究的一个潜在结果是确定与NMS有效合作的新方法和创建共识预测的可复制过程。该项目将得到气候信息传播专家的进一步支持，以确保项目在所有步骤中的相关性，并将成为KCIRR（国王大学风险复原力综合研究中心）中心的一部分，以确保与主办机构的联系嵌入大学内部，以最大限度地发挥持续互动的潜力。参考文献：Gallo和Henley，用于布基纳法索北部季节预报的土著指标，bred Zaman Lebidi报告，英国气象局，2017;cleaver, F 2012，通过拼凑实现发展：重新思考自然资源管理制度。劳特利奇，阿宾顿，奥克森。

Climate change is having an impact on climate extremes in East and West Africa. Despite the large volume of climate and weather observational and modelled data, in indigenous communities in Burkina Faso, traditional weather forecasting still remains one of the main accessible and trusted sources of weather and climate information, due to a lack of usable and timely scientific climate information. The UK Meteorological Office (Met Office) as well NGOs and government bodies recognises the value of local observation systems and complementary frameworks for analysing weather and climate phenomenon, but have not been able to move towards using such frameworks as means to better communicate science derived or informed forecasts. The purpose of this project is for social science researchers to work with the Met Office to develop a set of tools, address a knowledge gap and document institutional best practices in reaching a consensus forecast to strengthen local communities' resilience to climate change. Recognising the importance of community based, collectively held indigenous knowledge and practices importance, the Met Office has compiled a data set of existing traditional forecasting practices in northern Burkina Faso (Gallo and Henley, 2017) as partners of the Zaman Lebidi Burkina Faso BRACED (Building Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Extremes and Disasters) project. A brief qualitative analysis of this dataset has been realised but further work is needed to understand the use of the different indicators in communicating scientific climate information.This placement allows the expertise of King's College London (KCL) to assist the Met Office to place data on indigenous knowledge and forecast indicators in the socioeconomic and cultural context in order to make it useful and relevant for the climate scientists. The goal is to develop a tool, a participatory approach and best practices materials based on this work in Burkina Faso which can then be used by the Met Office in other areas and for work with other National Meteorological Services (NMS). The researchers will assist the Met Office in identifying the most useful and relevant indigenous indicators to highlight their importance and potential application as part of a process of co-production of a local "consensus forecast", a way to combine indigenous and scientific climate and weather information so that local rural populations can make informed decisions and achieve better livelihoods. The researchers will also document the evolving relationship between formal and informal institutions (e.g. the Met Office, NMS, communities and academia) through the lens of bricolage (Cleaver, 2012). The partnership between KCL and the Met Office is a way of applying social science research to help climate scientists make full use of available resources, contextualise them at local scales and integrate participatory approaches. The research will also look at potential future research needs that could be addressed through future NERC research. This could strengthen and improve long-term relationship between KCL and the Met Office.A potential outcome of this research is the identification of new ways of efficiently collaborating with NMS and a replicable process for creating consensus forecasts. The project will be further supported by a Climate Information Communication specialist to ensure relevance of the project at all steps and will be part of KCIRR (King's Centre for Integrated Research on Risk Resilience) hub to ensure that the links with the host organisation are embedded within the University to maximise the potential of continuing interactions.References:Gallo and Henley, Indigenous indicators used for seasonal forecasts in northern Burkina Faso, BRACED Zaman Lebidi Report, UK Met Office, 2017Cleaver, F 2012, Development through bricolage: rethinking institutions for natural resource management. Routledge, Abingdon, Oxon.