Scaling-Up: National Assessment of Emergency Response Accessibility During Flooding

紧急服务（救护车服务；消防和救援服务）在洪水响应中发挥着至关重要的作用，因为它们参与联合指挥控制结构，是救援和救灾工作的核心（Frost 2002）。紧急服务通常是立法规定的，以满足规定的响应时间。英国立法要求紧急救援人员在对事件作出反应时遵守严格的时间框架。第一类响应者，如救护车服务和消防与救援服务，必须分别在接到首次呼叫后的8分钟和10分钟内到达75%的“红色1”（高优先级，危及生命的事件）。这包括蓝光事故，如危及生命和创伤性伤害、心脏骤停、道路碰撞和被洪水困住的人。在2015-16年，只有一家英格兰救护车信托达到了响应时间目标，72.5%的最严重（红色1）呼叫在8分钟内得到回应，而立法目标为75%（国家审计署，2017年）。在2007-2014年间，苏格兰救护车服务在2013年达到的最高百分比为74.7% （HEAT标准）。不断增长的需求加上低效的呼叫处理和调度系统经常被认为是未能实现上述目标的原因。然而，响应时间也会受到洪水事件的影响，这可能会限制应急响应人员在中断的道路网络中导航的能力（如2007年英国大范围洪水期间的情况）。洪水对道路网络的影响是众所周知的，预计在气候变化和更多强降雨的情况下，这种影响会变得更糟。例如，在美国波特兰，在一个气候变化情景下，由于洪水导致的道路封闭可能会使旅行时间增加10% （Chang et al. 2010）。由于气候变化，洪水次数增加对道路网络的影响也由美国波士顿大都会区进行了模拟（Suarez et al., 2005）。这项研究发现，在2000年至2100年之间，延误和行程时间损失可能分别增加80%和82%。皮特评论（2008）指出，在2007年的事件中，由于准备不足和信息缺乏，一些协作决策受到阻碍，需要对关键基础设施进行更好的规划和更高水平的保护，以避免水和电等基本服务的损失。最近，国家抗洪能力评估（HMG, 2016）揭示了英格兰和威尔士相当大比例的关键资产仍然容易受到洪水影响的程度。报告特别强调，基础设施服务的丧失可能对人们的健康和福祉产生重大影响。该项目将结合：(i)既定的无障碍绘图方法；现有的国家洪水数据集；（iii）在当地进行测试，最近扩大了实时洪水临近预报/预报系统，以生成可达性地图、脆弱性评估和适应评估，以适应各种洪水条件，并在国家和城市区域范围内进行评估。该项目将通过三个连续的工作包来实施，其中包括：(a)根据立法时限确定应急服务的可及性；(b)评估人口的脆弱性（护理院、收容所和学校）；(c)评估适应策略（例如，定位备用车辆）。

Emergency services (Ambulance Service; Fire & Rescue Service) play a crucial role during flood response, as they participate in joint command-control structures and are central to rescue and relief efforts (Frost 2002). Emergency services are often legislated to meet defined response times. UK legislation requires that emergency responders comply with strict timeframes when reacting to incidents. Category 1 responders such as the Ambulance Service and the Fire & Rescue Service are required to reach 75% of 'Red 1' (high-priority, life-threatening incidents) in less than 8 and 10 minutes respectively from the time when the initial call was received. This includes blue-light incidents such as life-threatening and traumatic injury, cardiac arrest, road collisions, and individuals trapped by floodwaters. In 2015-16, only one England ambulance trust met the response time targets and 72.5% of the most serious (Red 1) calls were responded to within 8 minutes, against a legislative target of 75% (National Audit Office, 2017). Between 2007-2014, the highest percentage Scottish Ambulance Service achieved was 74.7% in 2013 (HEAT standard).Rising demand combined with inefficient call handling and dispatch systems are often cited as the reasons for missing the above targets. However, response times can also be affected by flood episodes which may limit the ability of emergency responders to navigate through a disrupted road network (as was the case during the widespread UK flooding in 2007). The impact of flooding on road networks is well known and is expected to get worse in a changing climate with more intense rainfall. For example, in Portland, USA under one climate change scenario, road closures due to flooding could increase time spent travelling by 10% (Chang et al. 2010). The impact of an increased number of flooding episodes, due to climate change, on road networks has also been modelled by for the Boston Metropolitan area, USA (Suarez et al., 2005). This study found that between 2000 and 2100 delays and trip-time losses could increase by 80% and 82% respectively. The Pitt Review (2008) suggested that some collaborative decision making during the 2007 event was hampered by insufficient preparation and a lack of information, and better planning and higher levels of protection for critical infrastructure are needed to avoid the loss of essential services such as water and power. More recently, the National Flood Resilience Review (HMG, 2016) exposes the extent to which a significant proportion of critical assets are still vulnerable to flooding in England and Wales. In particular, it highlights that the loss of infrastructure services can have significant impacts on people's health and wellbeing.This project will combine: (i) an established accessibility mapping approach; (ii) existing national flood datasets; and (iii) a locally tested, recent-expanded real-time flood nowcasting/forecasting system to generate accessibility mapping, vulnerability assessment and adaptation evaluation for various flood conditions and at both the national and city-region scale. The project will be delivered via three sequential Work Packages, including:(a) Mapping emergency service accessibility according to legislative timeframes;(b) Assessing the vulnerability of populations (care homes, hospices and schools); and (c) Evaluating adaptation strategies (e.g. positioning standby vehicles).