Unlocking the potential of surface water flood nowcasting for emergency services in a changing climate

释放地表水洪水临近预报在气候变化中提供紧急服务的潜力

• 批准号: NE/S017186/1
• 负责人: Dapeng Yu
• 金额: $ 31.5万
• 依托单位: Loughborough University
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2019 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FS017186%2F1
• 关键词: Unlocking; potential; surface; water; flood

Surface water flooding affects 3.2 million properties in England, and is seen as "the biggest flood risk of all" by the Environment Agency. Average annual damage due to surface water flooding in the UK exceeds £290 million. Climate change is expected to increase the intensity of heavy bursts of rainfall, and weather is expected to become more 'uncertain' and 'unfamiliar'. The cost of associated damage under climate change could rise by 40% by the 2050s if current management approaches remain unchanged. In the UK, Ambulance and Fire & Rescue Services are the primary emergency responders to extreme flood events, during which demands for services often peak. For example, London Fire & Rescue Service saw more than a three-fold increase in emergency 999 calls attended during flooding on the EU Referendum Day (23 June 2016). Surface water flooding such as this affects the operation of emergency responders who have to operate under flood conditions, while meeting their mandatory response time target. For example, the majority of Fire & Rescue Services in the UK aims to reach incidents within 8-10 minutes. Flood incidents compound the challenges of meeting their response time targets. For example, during the 23 June 2016 flooding, the average response time of London Fire Brigade increased from 6 minutes under normal days to 16 minutes, thereby missing the response time target. 40% of incidents were reported to be delayed due to weather, flooded roads, and congestion. To combat this and enable effective decision making, knowing where and when it could flood is important.The operational decision making of emergency responders often involve determining when and where to allocate resources (e.g. closing flooded roads; pumping road sections to allow access; dispatching sandbags; positioning emergency vehicles; arranging cross-boundary and multi-agency operations). However, current system for predicting surface water flooding is not designed for operational purpose. The only (based on our knowledge) system exists is the UK Flood Forecast Centre's daily service, which provides 5-day outlook of flood risks including surface water flooding. A flood guidance document is issued daily and surface water flood risk is provided at the county-level, based on a pre-fun library of impact scenarios, rather than real-time analysis of risks. The spatial resolution and temporal frequency of the existing system means that such detailed decisions cannot be supported. Fundamentally, episodes of surface water flooding are typically less than 2-3 hours in the UK and associated with convective weather systems. Daily forecasts of surface water flooding are not able to capture the spatiotemporal dynamics of the fast-developing convective storms associated with such events.Under two NERC projects (2016, 2018), we developed the first nowcasting technology for surface water flooding. This approach involves around the clock real-time modelling of surface water flooding at street-level resolution for the next 3-6 hours, updated every 2-3 hours. In this way we use the latest weather forecast from the Met Office and capture every short duration intense rainfall events that cause flooding. Our stakeholder-driven research and innovation in surface water flood nowcasting have opened up several new, untapped research and innovation opportunities. The proposed project aims to address two key research questions in order to unlock the potential of surface water flood nowcasting for emergency services to support their operational decision making in a changing climate. These include: (i) uncertainty propagation from precipitation nowcasting and forecasting products to high-resolution surface water flood predictions; and (ii) effective communication of complex surface water flood risk information to support emergency responders' operational decision making.

地表水洪水影响了英格兰320万处房产，被环境署视为“最大的洪水风险”。英国每年因地表水泛滥造成的损失平均超过2.9亿英镑。气候变化预计将增加强降雨的强度，天气预计将变得更加“不确定”和“陌生”。如果目前的管理方法保持不变，到21世纪50年代，气候变化造成的相关损害成本可能会增加40%。在英国，救护车和消防与救援服务是极端洪水事件的主要应急响应者，在此期间，对服务的需求往往达到高峰。例如，欧盟公投日（2016年6月23日）洪水期间，伦敦消防救援局接到的紧急999电话增加了三倍多。像这样的地表水洪水影响了紧急救援人员的运作，他们必须在洪水条件下运作，同时满足他们的强制性响应时间目标。例如，英国的大多数消防和救援服务的目标是在8-10分钟内到达事故现场。洪水事件加剧了实现其反应时间目标的挑战。例如，在2016年6月23日的洪水中，伦敦消防队的平均响应时间从正常情况下的6分钟增加到16分钟，从而错过了响应时间目标。据报道，40%的事故因天气、道路被淹和交通拥堵而延误。为了应对这一问题并做出有效的决策，了解何时何地可能发生洪水是非常重要的。应急人员的业务决策通常涉及确定何时何地分配资源（例如关闭被洪水淹没的道路;在路段抽水以允许通行;派遣沙袋;部署紧急车辆;安排跨境和多机构行动）。然而，目前用于预测地面水驱的系统不是为业务目的而设计的。唯一（根据我们的知识）存在的系统是英国洪水预报中心的日常服务，提供包括地表水洪水在内的洪水风险的5天展望。洪水指导文件每天发布，地表水洪水风险是在县级提供的，其基础是一个供资前的影响情景库，而不是实时的风险分析。现有系统的空间分辨率和时间频率意味着无法支持这种详细的决定。从根本上说，在英国，地表水泛滥的时间通常不到2-3小时，并与对流天气系统有关。地表水洪水的日常预报无法捕捉与此类事件相关的快速发展的对流风暴的时空动态。在两个NERC项目（2016年，2018年）中，我们开发了第一个地表水洪水的临近预报技术。这种方法涉及在未来3-6小时内以街道级分辨率对地表水洪水进行全天候实时建模，每2-3小时更新一次。通过这种方式，我们使用英国气象局的最新天气预报，并捕捉导致洪水的每一次短时间强降雨事件。我们在地表水洪水预报方面的知识产权驱动的研究和创新开辟了几个新的，未开发的研究和创新机会。拟议项目旨在解决两个关键的研究问题，以释放地表水洪水临近预报的潜力，为应急服务，以支持他们在不断变化的气候中的业务决策。其中包括：（i）从降水临近预报和预报产品到高分辨率地表水洪水预测的不确定性传播;（ii）复杂地表水洪水风险信息的有效沟通，以支持应急响应者的业务决策。

项目成果

Spatial and temporal scaling of sub-daily extreme rainfall for data sparse places

数据稀疏地区次日极端降雨量的时空尺度

• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06528-2
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Climate Dynamics
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Wilby R

Long-term flood-hazard modeling for coastal areas using InSAR measurements and a hydrodynamic model: The case study of Lingang New City, Shanghai

使用 InSAR 测量和水动力模型对沿海地区进行长期洪水灾害建模：以上海临港新城为例

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.02.015
• 发表时间: 2019-04
• 期刊: Journal of Hydrology
• 影响因子: 6.4
• 作者: Yin Jie;Zhao Qing;Yu Dapeng;Lin Ning;Kubanek Julia;Ma Guanyu;Liu Min;Pepe Antonio
• 通讯作者: Pepe Antonio

Quantifying uncertainty in heavy rainfall forecasts used to support flood modelling and emergency responders

量化强降雨预报的不确定性，用于支持洪水建模和应急响应人员

• 发表时间: 2019
• 作者: Camacho Suarez Vivian

Strategic flood evacuation planning facilitates effective transfer of vulnerable population in coastal megacities

战略性洪水疏散规划有助于沿海特大城市弱势群体的有效转移

• DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-2914003/v1
• 发表时间: 2023
• 作者: Yin J

A city-scale assessment of emergency response accessibility to vulnerable populations and facilities under normal and pluvial flood conditions for Shanghai, China

中国上海在正常和雨洪条件下对脆弱人群和设施的应急响应可达性的城市规模评估

• DOI: 10.1177/2399808320971304
• 发表时间: 2020-11
• 期刊: Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science
• 作者: Yin Jie;Yu Dapeng;Liao Banggu
• 通讯作者: Liao Banggu