NCEO LTS-S

NCEO在该方案中的研究将利用来自卫星数据的最新、最有趣的信息，并结合国家环境研究中心支持的主要是陆地、大气和海洋的最先进的全球模型。NCEO的工作人员在分析卫星数据、评估模型和将数据合并到模型(数据同化)方面拥有国际公认的技能，这将使我们能够在分析和了解地球系统以及其中的组成部分(空气、水、陆地和冰)之间的反馈方面向前迈进一大步。NCEO活动的主要基础是根据最新的卫星观测生成高质量的数据集。我们将使用欧空局地球探险者、Eumetsat业务气象卫星、哥白尼哨兵、NASA/NOAA研究和业务飞行任务以及日本宇宙航空研究开发机构卫星的观测数据。我们将设计创新的算法来生成最先进的地球观测(EO)数据，这些数据具有不确定性，使我们能够监测和了解地球系统的变化和可变性：植被变化和储存的碳(生物量)；火辐射功率和燃烧完整性；表面反射率和发射率；大气痕量气体，包括二氧化碳、甲烷和臭氧；气溶胶、云和降水；大气顶部的辐射和通量，陆地和海洋的表面温度。这些数据集与模型结合在一起时是强大的。NCEO的第二个基础活动将提供一个灵活的社区数据同化工具，供科学家用重要的社区模型试验不同的方法和EO数据。不确定性对同化系统的性能至关重要，NCEO的科学家将为我们的关键模型和数据描述这些不确定性，使它们公开可用。我们还将研究新的非线性方法，与数学界合作，以确保我们的技术的适当性。我们的同化方法和EO数据将被用于我们的三个战略计划科学领域：1.全球和区域碳循环(GRCC)；2.人类世期间生物圈-大气的大范围耦合(BIOATM)；3.诊断地球系统中的能量和水交换(Dewees)。全球碳循环在地球系统中发挥着核心作用，但全面了解其现状、主要驱动因素和敏感性仍然是气候科学中的一个关键挑战。在GRCC领域，我们将寻求迎接这一挑战，利用我们在两项基础活动中取得的进展，以增进对以下问题的理解：海洋和陆地生态系统中的动态碳库；地表和大气之间的碳交换；区域碳预算。最终，我们将推动我们的数据同化方法朝着一个集成的碳观测系统发展，该系统将跨域连接过程模型和全球EO数据。大气层在大范围的时间尺度上综合了空间和时间上变化的地表排放。由此产生的大气变化会影响天气、气候和空气质量，并反馈到生物圈。在BIOATM领域，我们将量化推动大气组成的地表通量之间的联系，包括人类和自然排放之间的相互作用，并评估变化和趋势的大范围后果。地表、大气和空间之间的能量流动在建立推动天气和气候的大范围循环方面发挥着基本作用，通过潜热交换与水循环内在地耦合。然而，了解云、降水和地表如何响应并改变环流的变化是一个重大挑战。在杜威地区，我们将建立第一个全球观测框架，将大尺度环流、对流和陆地表面过程联系起来，以迎接这一挑战。

NCEO research in this programme will make use of the latest, most interesting information from satellite data in combination with state-of-the-art NERC-supported global models of principally the land, atmosphere and ocean. NCEO staff have internationally recognised skills in analysing satellite data, evaluating models and merging the data into models (data assimilation) which will enable us to take major steps forward in analysing and understanding the Earth system and feedbacks between the component domains (air, water, land and ice) within it.A primary underpinning NCEO activity is to produce high quality data sets from the latest satellite observations. We will use observations from ESA Earth Explorers, Eumetsat operational weather satellites, Copernicus Sentinels, NASA/NOAA research and operational missions and JAXA satellites. We will devise innovative algorithms to generate state-of-the-art Earth Observation (EO) data, with uncertainties, for significant variables which allow us to monitor and understand change and variability in the Earth system: vegetation change and stored carbon (biomass); fire radiative power and combustion completeness; surface reflectance and emissivity; atmospheric trace gases including CO2, CH4 and O3; aerosols, clouds and precipitation; top-of-atmosphere radiances and fluxes, surface temperatures over land and sea.These datasets are powerful when combined with models. NCEO's second underpinning activity will provide a flexible community data assimilation tool for scientists to trial different methods and EO data with important community models. Uncertainties are critical to the performance of assimilation systems and NCEO scientists will characterise these for our key models and data, making them available publically. We will also examine new non-linear methods, collaborating with the mathematics community to ensure the appropriateness of our techniques.Our assimilation methods and EO data will be employed in our three strategic Programme science areas: 1. Global and Regional Carbon Cycle (GRCC); 2. Large-scale coupling of the biosphere-atmosphere during the Anthropocene (BIOATM); 3. Diagnosing Energy and Water Exchanges in the Earth System (DEWEES). The global carbon cycle plays a central role in the Earth system but a comprehensive understanding of its current state, main drivers and sensitivities remains a key challenge in climate science. In the GRCC area we will seek to meet this challenge, exploiting the developments made in our two underpinning activities to advance understanding of: dynamic carbon pools in ocean and land ecosystems; exchanges of carbon between the surface and atmosphere; regional carbon budgets. Ultimately, we will advance our data assimilation methods towards an integrated carbon observing system that links process models and global EO data across domains. The atmosphere globally integrates spatially and temporally varying surface emissions over a wide range of time scales. Consequent atmospheric variations in affect weather, climate and air quality with feedbacks to the biosphere. In the BIOATM area we will quantify the links between the surface fluxes driving atmospheric composition, including the interactions between human and natural emissions, and assess large-scale consequences for variations and trends. Energy flows between the surface, atmosphere and space play a fundamental role in establishing the large scale circulation that drives our weather and climate, being intrinsically coupled to the water cycle via the exchange of latent heat. However, understanding how clouds, precipitation and the land surface respond to, and themselves modify, changes to the circulation is a major challenge. In the DEWEES area we will develop the first global observational framework linking the large-scale circulation, convection and land surface processes in order to meet this challenge.