[Thailand] ENRICH: ENhancing ResIlienCe to future Hydro-meteorological extremes in the Mun river basin in Northeast of Thailand

泰国东北部的蒙河流域是受水文气象灾害影响地区的一个典型例子。其具体脆弱性在于其上游地区更容易发生干旱，而流域下游是洪水危险区。门河流域约有80 ~ 90%的水稻种植面积是雨养的。尽管年平均降雨量接近泰国的标准，但研究区降雨在空间和时间上都非常不稳定。这种不平衡严重影响了作为该地区主要人口的农民的稻米生产、生活条件和收入。该项目将汇集英国和泰国在气候变异和气候变化、洪水和干旱建模以及水资源管理等领域的专业知识和经验。该项目的最终目标是在埃克塞特大学和AIT之间建立强有力的合作和知识交流，开发创新的综合解决方案，以解决Mun河流域水文气象极端事件的紧迫问题以及适应策略和措施。拟建项目将解决以下研究问题：-影响泰国东北部气象和气候变率和变化的主要环境驱动因素是什么？-未来研究区可能出现的水文气象情景和极端情况是什么？预估变化可归因于环境和气候变化的可信度有多大？-未来极端气候对水文气象灾害和风险的预期变化是什么？-在研究流域有哪些可能和合理的适应策略和措施来提高气候适应能力？根据泰国皇家灌溉部和水资源部最近的政策和规划，本研究将调查未来气候变化导致的干旱危害及其对研究区域脆弱性和风险的影响。此外，还将对当前的适应措施进行分析，并提出进一步改进以应对未来气候变化的建议。拟议的为期两年半的研究计划将通过四个综合工作包来实现：WP1土地利用变化WP2气候变率和气候变化WP3水文气象极端事件WP4基于综合结果的适应战略从项目启动研讨会开始，通过数据采集和分析，最后在传播阶段，ENRICH团队将与泰国水利部和皇家灌溉部密切合作，以使产出能够得到利用。将在研究区域组织两次公众参与会议，与当地利益相关者-农民，工业，省/区一级的地方一线机构等-了解水文气象灾害相关问题（在项目开始时），并讨论适应措施（在项目结束时制定适应策略和措施）。虽然“充实计划”是一项可以独立完成的独立倡议，但从早期阶段开始，它将寻求与本计划资助的其他项目合作，通过共享数据和专业知识来确定协同效应的潜力。

Mun river basin in Northeast Thailand is a prime example of the area impacted by hydro-meteorological hazards. Its specific vulnerability lies in the fact that its upstream parts are more prone to droughts, whereby the downstream part of the basin is a flood risk zone. About 80 to 90% of rice cultivation area in the Mun river basin is rain-fed. Rainfall in the study area is highly erratic both in space and time even though the annual average amount is near to the norm of Thailand. This unevenness has serious effects on rice production, living conditions and income of farmers who are the main population in the region. ENRICH will bring together expertise and experience from UK and Thailand in the areas of climate variability and climate change, floods and drought modelling and water resources management. The ultimate aim of this project is to establish a strong collaboration and exchange of knowledge between the University of Exeter and AIT, to develop innovative integrated solutions to address the pressing problem of hydro-meteorological extremes and adaptation strategies and measures in the Mun river basin.The proposed project will address the following research questions: - What are the main environmental drivers affecting the meteorological and climate variability and change in Northeast of Thailand?- What are possible hydro-meteorological scenarios and extremes in future in the study area? What is the level of confidence that the projected changes can be attributed to environmental and climate changes?- What are the expected changes in hydro-meteorological hazards and risks due to future climatic extremes?- What are the possible and plausible adaptation strategies and measures to improve climate resilience in the study basin?In line with the recent policy and planning of the Royal Irrigation Department and Department of Water Resources of Thailand, this study will investigate drought hazard due to future climate change, and its impacts on vulnerability and risk in the study area. Furthermore, analysis on current adaptive measures and recommendation for further improvement to cope with future climate change will be produced. The proposed two and a half year research programme will be realized through four integrated Work Packages (WPs): WP1 Land use changes WP2 Climate variability and climate change WP3 Hydrometeorological extremes WP4 Adaptation strategies based on the synthesis of results The ENRICH team will work closely with the Thai Department of Water Resources and the Royal Irrigation Department, from the project inception workshop, through data acquisition and analysis and finally during the dissemination phase, so that the outputs can be taken up. Two public participation meetings will be organised in the study area with local stakeholders - farmers, industries, local line agencies at provincial/district levels etc. - to understand the hydro-meteorological hazards related issues (at the start of the project), and discuss adaptation measures (towards the end of the project while developing the adaptation strategies and measures) with them. Whilst ENRICH is a stand-alone initiative that can be completed independently, from an early stage it will seek cooperation with other projects funded within this programme to identify the potential for synergies through sharing data and expertise.