An Interdisciplinary Approach to Understanding Past, Present and Future Flood Risk in Viet Nam

水文气象灾害的影响是由环境和社会因素共同决定的。在评估家庭脆弱性时，环境变化和人类反应之间的这些相互作用产生了很大的不确定性。在低收入国家，由于气候变化、农业开发的变化、家庭减灾战略的变化以及与水电和农业有关的水道工程活动，水文气象风险一直在演变。此外，洪水风险本身在短期和长期内影响到家庭的经济决策。拟议的研究将促进我们对水文物理和社会经济条件和过程如何相互作用的理解。我们的新的，跨学科的方法将推进当前的知识和方法，在物理和社会科学的发展：1）一种技术，用于生产社会物理洪水模型，占社会行为者和物理系统之间的相互作用和反馈; 2）一种方法，用于生成高分辨率的社会脆弱性地图完全基于遥感数据。在越南的具体情况下，我们的研究将产生：3）详细的，多维模型的家庭层面的风险和弹性战略的公社在中央高地; 4）高分辨率地图的社会脆弱性在中央高地验证与家庭层面的调查数据; 5）社会物理洪水风险模型的中央高地; 6）情景预测，根据关键水文物理参数、社会经济条件、土地利用、家庭减灾战略和公共干预措施的可能变化，概述未来潜在风险。我们在地理上侧重于中部高地，这是因为相对于湄公河三角洲和沿海地区等其他地区，近年来对该地区洪水风险的研究明显不足，而且影响该地区的重大社会经济变化（农村向城市迁移、种植模式和投资的变化、洪泛区活动的加剧）。我们将通过整合最先进的流体动力学洪水模型、卫星图像、详细的土地使用图、家庭调查数据和实地实验，为中部高地的社区开发模型、地图和情景。研究结果将提高我们预测和减轻越南中部高地水文灾害影响的能力，特别是在受类似灾害影响的其他地区。据我们所知，我们的提案是第一个将最先进的水动力洪水模型与世界任何地方家庭层面的弹性战略和经济活动数据结合起来的联合收割机。这一贡献将使我们能够在预测未来情景时纳入家庭复原力，从而为政策相关知识做出重大贡献，同时还提供了可在其他地区应用的新建模方法。

The impact of hydro-meteorological hazards is jointly determined by environmental and social factors. These interactions between environmental change and human responses generate great uncertainty when evaluating household vulnerability. In low-income countries, hydro-meteorological risks have been evolving due to climate change, changes in agricultural exploitation, changes in household mitigation strategies and waterway engineering activities related to hydropower and agriculture. In addition, flood risk itself affects the economic decisions of households in the short- and longer-run. The proposed research will advance our understanding of how hydro-physical and socio-economic conditions and processes interact. Our novel, interdisciplinary approach will advance current knowledge and methods in both the physical and social sciences through the development of: 1) A technique for producing socio-physical flood models that account for interactions and feedback between social actors and physical systems; 2) A method for generating high-resolution social vulnerability maps based solely on remotely sensed data. Within the context of Vietnam specifically our research will generate: 3) Detailed, multidimensional models of household-level risk and resilience strategies within communes in the Central Highlands; 4) High resolution maps of social vulnerability in the Central Highlands validated with household-level survey data; 5) A socio-physical flood risk model for the Central Highlands; 6) Scenario projections that outline potential future risks based on possible changes in key hydro-physical parameters, socioeconomic conditions, land use, household mitigation strategies, and public interventions. Our geographical focus on the Central Highlands is informed by a clear dearth of recent research into flood risk in this area relative to other regions, such as the Mekong Delta and coastal areas in recent years, and by the major socio-economic changes affecting the region (rural-urban migration, changes in cropping patterns and investment, intensification of floodplain activity). Our models, maps and scenarios for communities in the Central Highlands will be developed by integrating state-of-the-art hydrodynamic flood models, satellite imagery, detailed land-use maps, household survey data and field experiments. The results will improve our ability to predict and mitigate the impacts of hydrological hazards in the Central Highlands of Vietnam specifically, but also in other regions affected by similar hazards. To our knowledge, our proposal is the first one to combine a state-of-the-art hydrodynamic flood model with data on resilience strategies and economic activities that is geo-located at the household level anywhere in the world. This contribution will allow us to incorporate household resilience when projecting future scenarios and thus make a significant contribution to policy-relevant knowledge, while also providing new modelling methods that could be applied in other regions.