NATIONAL-SCALE IMPACT-BASED FORECASTING OF FLOOD RISK IN UGANDA (NIMFRU)

尽管在早期预警系统方面投入了大量资金，但在确保洪灾易发社区安全方面进展有限(联合国可持续发展小组报告，2017)。基于预测的筹资是一项倡议，旨在使人道主义资金能够在灾害发生之前根据预测发放用于早期行动的资金。乌干达东北部最初的基于预测的融资试点项目突出了在确定脆弱性和反应阈值方面的复杂性(Coughlan de Perez等人)。2016)指导干预工作。因此，由于影响洪水风险的环境、气候和社会经济因素的复杂性、多部门(健康、环境、水、交通)的影响以及影响社区一级应对的各种因素的影响，在全国范围内推广森林森林是一项巨大的挑战。了解社区在不同季节的具体脆弱性，以及它们在不同类型洪水威胁下的暴露情况，是改善物质和生计风险评估、准备、沟通和应对的关键，因此，乌干达林业局社区对全国范围内基于影响的预报的需求推动了对综合来自气候科学、水文学和生计等不同学科证据的新方法的需求。NIMFRU项目回应了这一需求，采用了一种新的方法，将为乌干达所有地区的林业局提供全面的洪水影响评估，补充SET-FATHUM项目关于预测技能的产出，并提供基本的家庭经济/社会经济信息，以指导备灾、保护和应对。FATHUM的方法是NIMFRU总体目标的基础，该目标是通过更好地整合和分析关于不同人口群体对整个农业年度洪水事件的敏感性和脆弱性的信息，改进乌干达洪水预警和反应的针对性、相关性和沟通。通过与FBF倡议的联系，NIMFRU的研究成果将为乌干达以外的基于影响的预测的发展提供信息。我们将通过我们由全球公认的水文学、气候科学和生计研究和实践领域的领导者组成的联盟，以及与我们的项目合作伙伴建立的长期利益相关者网络和现有的、牢固和平等的关系，实现气候科学和生计分析的新综合。凭借对政策过程的广泛和广泛的地方和地区知识，我们的团队具有关键能力，可以确保NIMRFU的工作完全融入国家机构，包括NECOC的洪水信息系统、人道主义救济数据库和应急机制。这将确保该项目的长期遗产、可持续性和延展性，使其超越试点地区、乌干达全境、撒哈拉以南非洲及其他地区。

Despite significant investments in early warning systems, only limited progress has been made towards making flood prone communities safe (UN SDG Report, 2017). Forecast-based Financing is an initiative to enable humanitarian funds for early action to be released before a disaster on the basis of a forecast. The initial Forecast-based Financing pilot (FbF) project in North Eastern Uganda has highlighted the complexity in establishing vulnerability and response thresholds (Coughlan de Perez et al. 2016) to guide interventions. Scaling-up FbF across a nation is therefore a grand challenge due to the complexity of environmental, climatic and socio-economic factors affecting flood risk, the multi-sectoral (health, environment, water, transport) impacts and the range of factors affecting response at community level. Understanding the specific vulnerabilities of communities at different seasons, and their exposure to different types of flood threat is key to improving physical and livelihood risk assessment, preparedness, communication and response, The demand from the FbF community for impact-based forecasts at a national scale in Uganda therefore drives the need for a new approach that synthesises evidence from different disciplines including climate science, hydrology, and livelihoods. The NIMFRU project responds to this need, through a new approach that will provide comprehensive flood impact assessments for FbF across all areas of Uganda, complementing the SHEAR-FATHUM project's outputs on forecast skill with basic household economy/socio-economic information, to guide preparedness, protection and response. FATHUM's approach is the basis for NIMFRU's overarching aim, which is to improve the targeting, relevance and communication of flood warning and response in Uganda, through better integration and analysis of information on the sensitivities and vulnerabilities of different population groups to flood events across the agricultural year. Through linking with the FbF initiative, NIMFRU's research outcomes will inform developments for impact-based forecasting beyond Uganda.We will achieve this new synthesis of climate science and livelihoods analysis through our well established consortium of globally recognised leaders in hydrology, climate science and livelihoods research and practice, together with long standing stakeholder networks and existing, strong and equitable relationships with our project partners. With wide ranging and extensive local and regional knowledge of policy processes, our team has the critical capacity to ensure NIMRFU's work is fully embedded within national agencies including NECOC's flood information system, its humanitarian relief database and its emergency response mechanisms. This will ensure the project's long term legacy, its sustainability and its extensibility beyond the pilot districts, across Uganda, and to Sub-Saharan Africa and beyond.