Peruvian Glacier Retreat and its Impact on Water Security (Peru GROWS)

秘鲁安第斯山脉冰川融化的水为当地和下游社区提供了重要和可靠的供水，用于家庭用途、水电、自给自足和商业农业以及工业；并支持稀有的高海拔湿地和更广泛的生态系统功能。然而，这种长期、可靠的供水受到山区气温上升和降水模式变化的威胁，导致冰川缩小，融水径流的数量和季节性发生变化。气候变暖还与洪水和干旱等极端水文事件的日益频繁有关。再加上秘鲁快速城市化和经济发展的压力，这些变化预计将导致严重的水资源短缺，有可能抑制经济增长，使脆弱的生态系统(及其提供的服务)退化，这反过来又会增加社会脆弱性，对资源的公平分享产生不利影响，增加社会冲突，破坏秘鲁社会(从当地社区到大型沿海城市中心)。在秘鲁冰川化最严重的里约热内卢圣塔河流域工作，我们将绘制当前的社会生态系统图，以确定不同的社区和生态系统在哪里以及如何面临水资源供应的风险。然后，我们将把实地测量和遥感数据整合到基于物理的冰川和水文模型中，模拟气候、冰川和河流流量(包括数量、季节性和年际变化)过去、现在和未来可能发生的变化(到21世纪末)。我们将与当地利益攸关方密切合作，利用这一新知识来探索冰川行为预计变化对流域不同社区的直接和间接影响，重点是粮食安全、水生和陆地生态系统以及能源生产。我们将提供主要利益攸关方容易理解的水资源平衡现状和潜在缺水/取舍热点的信息，并将为地方和区域一级的适应规划提供依据。主要利益攸关方和终端用户一直密切参与《秘鲁种植》的设计，并将共同开展这项研究。在该地区有长期工作历史的两个主要非政府组织(CARE和山地研究所)以及国家冰川和山地生态系统研究所和秘鲁天主教大学的社会科学家将作为与当地利益攸关方，特别是脆弱的农村社区的接口。它们将共同发挥关键作用，共同为水资源管理和农业制定适当的适应战略，从而产生持久的积极影响。有了这一点，我们为在项目期间和之后产生多重影响奠定了坚实的基础。

Meltwater from glaciers in the Peruvian Andes provides an important and reliable water supply for local and downstream communities for domestic purposes, hydropower, subsistence and commercial agriculture, and industry; and to support rare, high-elevation wetlands and wider ecosystem functioning. However, this long-term, reliable water supply is threatened by increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns in the mountainous areas, resulting in shrinking of glaciers and changes in the amount and seasonality of meltwater runoff. A warming climate is also associated with an increasing frequency of extreme hydrological events, such as floods and droughts. Coupled with the stresses of Peru's rapid urbanisation and economic development, these changes are expected to lead to significant water scarcity, with the potential to inhibit economic growth and degrade vulnerable ecosystems (and the services they provide), which in turn will increase social vulnerability, adversely affect the equitable sharing of resources, increase social conflicts, and destabilise Peruvian societies (from local communities to the large coastal urban centres).Peru GROWS aims to increase the resilience of Peruvian communities and ecosystems to hydrological changes arising from shrinking glaciers in the Andes. Working in the Rio Santa catchment - the most glacierised catchment of Peru - we will map the current socio-ecological system to identify where, and how, different communities and ecosystems are exposed to risks from water availability. We will then integrate field measurements and remote-sensing data into physically-based glacier and hydrological models, to simulate the past, present, and possible future changes (to the end of the twenty-first century) to the climate, the glaciers, and to river flows (including amounts, seasonality, and inter-annual variability).In close partnership with local stakeholders, we will exploit this new knowledge to explore the direct and indirect impacts of projected change in glacier behaviour on different communities in the catchment, with a focus on food security, aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, and energy production. We will provide information on the current state of the water balance and hotspots of potential water scarcity/trade-offs that can be easily understood by key stakeholders and will provide the basis for adaptation planning at local and regional level. Key stakeholders and end-users have been closely involved in the design of Peru GROWS and will co-deliver the research. Two key NGOs, with a long history of work in this region (CARE and the Mountain Institute) as well as social scientists at the National Glacier and Mountainous Ecosystems Research Institute and the Pontifical Catholic University of Peru, will act as an interface with the local stakeholders, especially vulnerable rural communities. Together, they will have a key role in co-designing appropriate adaptation strategies for water resources management and agriculture that will create lasting positive impact. With this, we lay a firm foundation from which multiple impacts can emerge during and after the project.