Attribution of industrial-era glacier retreat, globally and in the high northern latitudes.

全球和北高纬度工业时代冰川退缩的归因。

• 批准号: 2314212
• 负责人: Gerard Roe
• 金额: $ 52.48万
• 依托单位: University of Washington
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-07-01 至 2026-06-30
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2314212&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Attribution; industrial; era; glacier; retreat

This research aims to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the human contribution to the industrial-era retreat of mountain glaciers around the world. The result will be a stronger foundation for future assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Although glacier retreat is widely touted as some of the clearest evidence of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change, formal scientific statements attributing the cause remain surprisingly weak. Hesitancy to make stronger statements stems from: i) uncertainty about the natural variability of glaciers; ii) the potential retreat of glaciers from a preceding Little Ice Age; and iii) a dearth of specifically targeted research on a global scale. The research will apply a previously developed attribution methodology to newly available global datasets of glacier geometry, combined with reconstructions and numerical simulations of the climate of the past millennium. The results will be immediately impactful for researchers working on high-mountain surface processes and hazards, ecologists, and all those who study and interpret periglacial environments; including sociologists, geographers, and economists who study societal impacts. The current unclear attribution of glacier retreat is also playing a role in precedent-setting lawsuits seeking to establish the legal principles of climate justice, to which the work contributes.The IPCC needs new research in order to update its assessments, and so to cement prior analyses (or disprove them), it is proposed to: i) use multi-century ensemble simulations from ~20 global climate models to properly initialize simulated glaciers to a pre-industrial climate, and to provide pairs of simulations with-and-without anthropogenic forcing; ii) use real glacier-catchment geometries and flowlines obtained from the Open Global Glacier Model initially with ~50 globally dispersed glaciers, with subsequent expansion to a larger network; and iii) use process-based numerical models of flowline glacier dynamics. This will put theoretical and synthetic analyses onto real landscapes and ice-flow dynamics, in combination with a full range of estimated natural climate variability. The research will maintain a particular focus on anthropogenic attribution for glaciers in the northern high latitudes, which experience large natural climate variability; strong low-frequency variability; a later emergence of the signal of anthropogenic climate change; a strong response to solar and volcanic forcing; and in maritime settings, large variability in wintertime mass balance. This award is co-funded by the Geomorphology and Land-use Dynamics, Arctic Natural Sciences, and Climate and Large-scale Dynamics programs, which cross the Division of Earth Sciences, Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences, and Polar Programs at the NSF.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

这项研究旨在对人类对世界各地山地冰川工业时代撤退的贡献进行全面评估。结果将是政府间气候变化小组（IPCC）对未来评估的更强基础。尽管冰川静修会被广泛吹捧为人为气候变化的影响的一些最清晰的证据，但归因于该原因的正式科学陈述仍然令人惊讶地疲软。犹豫发表更强有力的陈述源于：i）冰川自然变异性的不确定性； ii）冰川从冰河时代的较小冰河的潜在撤退； iii）缺乏全球范围内专门针对的研究。该研究将将先前开发的归因方法应用于冰川几何学的新全球数据集，并结合过去千年气候的重建和数值模拟。结果将对从事高登山表面过程和危害，生态学家以及所有研究和解释冰直冰环境的研究人员立即影响；包括研究社会影响的社会学家，地理学家和经济学家。当前对冰川静修的不清楚归因也在先例制定的诉讼中发挥作用，以建立工作贡献的气候正义的法律原则。前工业的气候，并提供对人为强迫的模拟对； ii）使用从开放的全局冰川模型获得的真正冰川捕捉几何形状和流量线，最初具有约50个全球分散冰川，随后扩展到较大的网络； iii）使用基于过程的流程线冰川动力学的数值模型。这将使理论和综合分析在实际景观和冰流动力学上，并结合各种估计的自然气候变化。该研究将特别关注北部高纬度冰川的人为归因，这些冰川经历了巨大的自然气候变化。强烈的低频变异性；后来出现人为气候变化的信号；对太阳和火山强迫的强烈反应；在海上环境中，冬季质量平衡的差异很大。该奖项由地貌和土地利用动力学，北极自然科学以及气候和大规模动态计划共同资助，该计划跨越了地球科学部，大气和地理水平科学的部门以及NSF的极地计划以及NSF奖的奖项。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并通过评估了范围的范围，这是由Infectiria构成的范围。