International: Embedding analysis of seismic hazard and risk for improved welfare in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan

位于中亚的吉尔吉斯斯坦国家面临着地震的危险。地球板块的构造碰撞在这一地区形成了巨大的山脉。这些山脉是由天山山脉北部大断层上的地震形成的。吉尔吉斯斯坦首都比什凯克位于这些主要断层线之一的顶端，是100万人的家园。过去，存在于这一山脉北缘的主要城市，如东部的阿拉木图，曾在19世纪末的大地震中被摧毁。这发生在他们还是相对较小的城镇时。如果类似规模的地震袭击主要城市比什凯克，那么今天的影响将具有更大的破坏性。贫穷国家城市的快速扩张意味着大量建筑不够坚固，不足以抵御地震。我们希望帮助比什凯克的政府部门，如建设部和紧急情况部，能够更好地评估未来地震袭击比什凯克的潜在影响。我们将通过向他们提供未来地震可能造成多少人死亡、多少建筑物将被破坏或倒塌以及这样一次地震将造成多少经济损失的估计来做到这一点。我们还将提供地图，显示我们认为这座城市将受到不同类型地震影响最大的地方，因为附近的小地震可能会像远处的大地震一样产生巨大影响。这将使吉尔吉斯斯坦政府部门能够针对城市中应该加固的关键建筑，如学校和医院，以及更好地规划应该在哪里建造新的住宅区，并执行抗震建筑规范，以确保建筑建造得更好。为了提供这些最新信息，我们将与比什凯克的地震研究所合作，他们的责任是提供这些地震风险的估计。因此，我们直接与有权向政府提供信息的组织合作，通过这样做，我们将确保我们的工作也将产生影响。我们还将培训研究所的工作人员，使其能够更新这些损失估计，以便他们有能力在我们不再从事这一项目时继续这项工作。重要的是，能够不断更新损失估计和地震风险地图。城市在不断扩大。如果这些城市位于地震多发地区，如吉尔吉斯斯坦首都比什凯克，这种增长增加了它们面临地震危险的风险，增加了人们面临的风险。通常，俯瞰城市的一些最好的景色来自地势较高的地方，但这种高地是由建造山脉的断层造成的。随着城市人口的增长，比什凯克市正在向南扩张，现在正在这些断层线上建造房屋。离断层很近会增加地震发生时的震动量，从而增加建筑物倒塌、受伤或死亡的可能性。除了暴露在地震危险中的增加外，我们还通过绘制断层线和识别过去的地震破裂，在该地区发现了更多活动的断层。将这一新信息纳入地震危险性估计是很重要的，因为众所周知，该地区过去曾发生过一些非常大的地震。因此，我们将把这些最新的科学信息纳入我们对地震危险的估计中。我们正在与其他合作伙伴合作，例如全球地震模型基金会，该基金会的成立是为了通过合作、公开和透明来服务于公共利益，通过提供可信的地震危险和风险评估。他们的开放软件“OpenQuake”使我们能够计算地震风险。

The country of Kyrgyzstan in Central Asia is exposed to the hazards of earthquakes. The tectonic collision of the Earth's plates is creating huge mountains in this region. These mountains are created from earthquakes on large faults along the northern Tien Shan mountain range. Kyrgyzstan's' capital, Bishkek, lies on top of one of these major fault lines and is home to a million people. In the past, major cities that exist along the northern edge of this mountain range, such as Almaty to the east, have been destroyed in large earthquakes at the end of the 19th Century. This occurred when they were relatively small towns. The impact today from similar sized earthquakes would have a much more devastating effect if it were to strike the major city of Bishkek. The rapid expansion of cities in poorer countries has meant that a large number of buildings are not strong enough to be resilient to earthquakes.We want to help the Government ministries in Bishkek, such as the Ministry for Construction and also for Emergency Situations, to be able to better assess the potential impact for earthquakes to strike the city in future. We will do this by providing them with estimates of how many people may die in future earthquakes, how many buildings will be damaged or collapse, and how much such an earthquake will cost financially. We will also provide maps of where we think the city will be most affected by different types of earthquakes, as small nearby earthquakes can have as big an impact as distant large ones. This will enable the Kyrgyz government ministries to target where in the city key buildings, such as schools and hospitals, should be reinforced, as well as to better plan where new housing estates should be built, and also to enforce the seismic building codes to make sure the buildings are built better.In order to provide this latest information, we will be working with the Institute of Seismology in Bishkek, whose responsibility it is to provide these kinds of estimates of seismic risk. We are therefore working directly with the organisation that has the mandate to provide information to the government and by doing so we will ensure that our work will also have an impact. We are also going to train the institute staff to be able to update these estimates of losses so that they have the capacity to continue this work once we are no longer working on this project.It is important to be able to keep updating the estimates of losses and maps of seismic risk. Cities are constantly enlarging. If these cities lie in earthquake prone areas, such as the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek, this growth increases their exposure to seismic hazards, increasing the risk that people face. Often some of the best views over a city come from higher ground, but this high ground is created by faults that build mountains. The city of Bishkek is expanding southwards as the urban population grows, and homes are now being built right on top of these fault lines. Being very near to a fault increases the amount of shaking if an earthquake happens, and therefore increases the chances of the building collapsing, injuring or killing the occupants.As well as the increased exposure to earthquake hazards, we are also discovering more active faults in the region through mapping out the fault lines and identifying past earthquake ruptures. It is important to incorporate this new information into the estimates of seismic hazard, as some very large earthquakes are known to have struck the region in the past. Therefore we will include this recent scientific information into our estimates of seismic hazard.We are working with other partners, such as the Global Earthquake Model Foundation, which was created to serve the public good through collaboration, openness and transparency by providing credible assessments of seismic hazard and risk. Their open software "OpenQuake" enables us to do the calculations of seismic risk.