Forecasting Risk of Environmental Exacerbation of Dissolved Organic Matter - Building Climate Change Resilience (FREEDOM-BCCR)

由于溶解性有机物（DOM）浓度的上升，水务行业面临着水处理系统日益加剧的风险，尤其是在提供英国70%饮用水的高地原水供应中。雨水和融水通过土壤蒸发，将DOM输送到水库。水务行业必须限制DOM浓度，以最大限度地减少味道和气味问题，减少藻类生长的可能性，并防止DOM和化学消毒剂之间反应形成的潜在有害水平的消毒副产品的产生。DOM浓度的增加主要是由于土壤有机质溶解度的增加，以响应区域减少大气污染物对土壤的影响。然而，DOM在高地沃茨的水平也是敏感的变化，长期变化，在土壤温度，降水量和强度，土壤沃茨的离子强度，水库的停留时间，以及在冬季风暴的海盐沉积事件。随着有机物继续变得更易溶解，这些与气候有关的影响正在增加。目前，降低DOM浓度的主要工业方法是应用混凝剂从水中沉淀有机物，但也可能需要额外的过滤来去除对这种化学效应不太敏感的DOM化合物。这两种工艺都具有显著的碳足迹，并且估计已经通过安装新设备而使该行业花费了数亿英镑，而现有的基础设施不再能够处理不断上升的DOM浓度。因此，迫切需要培育一个气候变化复原力社区，将联合收割机结合英国研究和工业界的广泛专业知识，以应对这一挑战。FREEDOM-BCCR将开发一种全新的方法来理解，管理和规划对DOM增加的响应，以应对气候变化。社区将为决策提供支持基础，并将提供适应性（如基础设施投资）和缓解性（如土地使用干预）方法，以建立高地供水的复原力。我们将通过整合特定流域的气候变化预测、预测模型和行业知识，增强当前NERC FREEDOM项目在苏格兰水务公司支持下开发的原型决策支持工具（DSt）的能力。FREEDOM DSt的开发将填补模型功能方面的关键知识空白，包括气候变化对土壤的影响和DOM的水库处理。我们将定义整个处理链中DOM数量和质量的操作阈值，并将其联合收割机结合起来，在英国范围内预测DOM对饮用水供应的风险。拟议的活动和各自的工作包包括：使用缩小到特定集水区的Hydro-JULES生成基于UKCP18的气候变化预测（WP1）;将缩小尺度的气候预测与集水区和湖泊/水库模型相结合，以探索气候变化对影响DOM数量季节变化的潜在影响，优先重点监测的饮用水水库及其集水区的水质和垂直分布（工作方案2）;验证FREEDOM DSt产生的DOM数量和质量预测，超出苏格兰水的参数化数据集，使用更广泛的英国行业数据（WP 3）提供的后向预测; FREEDOM-UK DSt的升级应用，以预测气候变化、土地利用变化和空气污染情景对英国其他地区DOM数量和质量的影响（WP 4）;并通过知识交流活动（WP5）计划，促进FREEDOM气候变化适应力社区，专注于共同开发，应用和展示FREEDOM-英国DST。

The water industry faces intensifying risks to its water treatment systems through rising dissolved organic matter (DOM) concentrations, especially in upland raw water supplies which provide 70% of the UK's drinking water. Rain and meltwater percolating through soils transports DOM to reservoirs. The water industry has to restrict DOM concentrations to minimise taste and odour problems, reduce the potential for algal growth, and prevent the generation of potentially harmful levels of disinfection bi-products, formed from reactions between DOM and chemical disinfectants. DOM concentrations are increasing primarily as a result of an increase in soil organic matter solubility in response to regional reductions in atmospheric pollutants to soils. However, DOM levels in upland waters are also sensitive to variation, and long-term change, in soil temperatures, amounts and intensity of precipitation, the ionic strength of soil waters, the residence time of reservoirs, and seasalt deposition events during winter storms. The influence of these climate-related effects is increasing as organic matter continues to become more soluble. Currently, the primary industry approach to reduce DOM concentrations is the application of coagulant to precipitate the organic matter from the water, but additional filtration may also be required to remove DOM compounds that are less sensitive to this chemical effect. Both processes have a significant carbon footprint and are estimated to have already cost the industry hundreds of millions of pounds through the installation of new equipment where existing infrastructure was no longer able to deal with rising DOM concentrations. There is a pressing need, therefore, to foster a Climate Change Resilience Community that will combine the extensive expertise of the research and industry communities in the UK in order to address this challenge. FREEDOM-BCCR will develop an entirely new approach to understanding, managing, and planning responses to DOM increases in response to climate change. The community will provide the basis of support for decision making and will deliver adaptive (e.g. infrastructure investment) and mitigative (e.g. land-use interventions) approaches with which to build resilience in the upland water supply. We will augment the capability of a prototype Decision Support tool (DSt), developed by the current NERC FREEDOM Project with support from for Scottish Water, by incorporating catchment-specific climate change projections, predictive models and industry knowledge. This development of the FREEDOM DSt will fill critical knowledge gaps in model functionality including climate change impacts on soil and in-reservoir processing of DOM. We will define operational thresholds for DOM quantity and quality across the treatment chain and combine these to produce forecasts, at a UK scale, of DOM risk to drinking water supply. Proposed activities and respective Work Packages include: generation of UKCP18-based climate change projections using Hydro-JULES downscaled to specific catchments (WP1); Coupling of downscaled climate predictions with catchment and lake/reservoir models to explore the potential impact of climate change in influencing seasonal variation in DOM quantity, quality and vertical distribution in priority intensively monitored drinking water reservoirs and their catchments (WP2); validation of predictions of DOM quantity and quality produced by the FREEDOM DSt, beyond the parameterisation data set from Scottish Water, using hind-casting informed by wider UK industry data (WP3); upscaling application of the FREEDOM-UK DSt to provide predictions of the effects of climate change, land-use change and air pollution scenarios on DOM quantity and quality in other regions of the UK (WP4); and, foster the FREEDOM Climate Change Resilience Community focussing on co-development, application, and show-casing the FREEDOM-UK DSt through a programme of knowledge exchange activities (WP5).