SMARTIES: Surveillance and Management of multiple Risks to Treescapes: Integrating Epidemiology and Stakeholder behaviour

英国的树种受到越来越多的害虫和疾病的威胁，导致巨大的经济，环境和社会成本。防止这类威胁的出现往往是困难的，因此，早期发现和成功管理是科学可以提供帮助的关键领域。在英国植物健康风险登记册上有超过1000种威胁，其中许多是树种的严重害虫。因此，树宿主可能同时面临不止一种威胁。以前曾有人呼吁采取更多的系统办法来管理生物安保威胁，但科学研究仍然倾向于侧重于单一物种，忽视了多种害虫/疾病之间可能的相互作用，以及土地管理人员侧重于管理树木而不是管理害虫或疾病的事实。基于科学的方法往往忽视的第二个方面是管理人员采纳关于病虫害监测和管理的建议的能力和意愿，以及不同方法在更广泛的社会中的可接受性。在这个项目中，我们将开发一个真正的跨学科的方法来了解关键的流行病学和人类行为因素，管理入侵和传播的多种威胁树的健康，从而确定成功的监测和管理在整个系统的水平，而不是在一个害虫的具体basis.Emerging威胁英国白蜡树（白蜡树）为我们的研究提供了一个重要的案例研究。这种英国本土树种目前受到灰枯病（ADB）的影响，据报道，这是一种毁灭性的疾病，估计给英国经济造成了150亿英镑的损失。然而，英国的白蜡树面临着一个新的威胁，来自绿灰螟（EAB）的潜在入侵。虽然还没有在这里，EAB被EFSA列为前三名最危险的入侵害虫。它在俄罗斯的存在已经得到证实，它正在向西移动。由于ADB和EAB相互作用的不确定性，在已经建立完善的ADB背景下对EAB的监测可能更具挑战性，可能受到ADB和EAB影响的白蜡树将进一步复杂化土地所有者和政策制定者面临的管理决策。我们的合作伙伴关系包括（i）流行病学过程建模，（ii）监测策略设计，㈢植物病理学和昆虫学，㈣树木病虫害的人的方面，㈤人类行为和森林管理决策的模型。我们汇集了各种技能的理想组合，以应对管理新的和正在出现的害虫威胁的挑战。根据我们的经验，我们将开发一个模型的分布和蔓延的亚洲开发银行和分散的EAB在空间上明确的景观。通过分析来自美国和俄罗斯的EAB传播数据，我们将确定可能发生的自然和人为传播的影响。这将被用来通知和验证我们的流行病学模型。我们将把这个模型与一个新的利益相关者行为模型相结合，这个模型是基于我们的社会科学研究，它捕捉了影响与监督和控制相关的决策的重要态度和行为。将动态模拟利益攸关方的观点和决策，使其能够随着时间的推移根据同行和外部影响而切实改变。这些相互关联的模型将使我们能够确定如何最好地部署监测和管理资源，以说明环境条件对风险的影响以及影响生物安保知识、态度和行为的社会因素，并确定提高管理行动的社会可接受性的方法。我们将使用基于模型的分析与主要利益相关者（包括Defra EAB准备委员会，EFSA，林业委员会）共同设计监督和管理解决方案，为政策制定提供信息和反馈。

Tree-species in the UK are threatened by an increasing number of pests and diseases resulting in large economic, environmental and social costs. Preventing the introduction of such threats is often difficult, therefore, early detection and successful management are key areas where science can deliver. There are over 1000 threats on the UK plant-health risk register, and many are serious pests of tree species. A tree-host may therefore face more than one threat at once. There have been previous calls for more systems approaches to managing biosecurity threats but scientific research still tends to focus on single species, ignoring possible interactions of multiple pests/ diseases and the fact that land managers focus on managing the tree, rather than managing a pest or disease. A second facet that is often neglected by science-based approaches is the ability and willingness of managers to adopt advice on the surveillance and management of pests and diseases as well as the acceptability of different approaches in wider society. In this project, we will develop a truly interdisciplinary approach to understand the key epidemiological and human behavioural factors that govern the invasion and spread of multiple threats to tree health and so determine successful surveillance and management at a whole system level, rather than on a pest specific basis.Emerging threats to UK ash trees (Fraxinus excelsior) offer an important case study for our research. This UK native tree species is currently impacted by Ash Dieback (ADB), a devastating disease which is reported to have caused an estimated loss of £15 billion to the UK economy. However, ash trees in the UK face a new threat from the potential invasion of the Emerald Ash Borer (EAB), Agrilus planipennis. Although not here yet, EAB is ranked in the top three most dangerous invasive pests by EFSA. Its presence has been confirmed in Russia and it is moving West. Surveillance for EAB in the context of the already well established ADB is likely to be much more challenging because of the uncertainties surrounding ADB and EAB interactions, Ash trees that may be impacted by both ADB and EAB will further complicate management decisions faced by landowners and policy makers.Our partnership comprises expertise in (i) modelling epidemiological processes, (ii) the design of surveillance strategies, (iii) plant pathology and entomology, (iv) the human dimensions of tree pests and diseases (v) modelling of human behaviour and forest management decision-making. We bring together the ideal combination of skills to tackle the challenge of managing new and emerging pest threats. Drawing on our experience, we will develop a model of the distribution and spread of ADB and the dispersal of EAB in a spatially explicit landscape. By analysing data on the spread of EAB from the USA and Russia we will determine the effect of both natural and anthropogenic spread that can occur. This will be used to inform and validate our epidemiological model. We will integrate this model with a novel model of stakeholder behaviour based on our social science research that captures the important attitudes and behaviours that affect decisions related to surveillance and control. Stakeholder perspectives and decision-making will be modelled dynamically allowing them to realistically change over time in response to peer and external influence. The linked models will allow us to identify how best to deploy surveillance and management resource to account for the impact of environmental conditions on risk and the sociological factors that influence biosecurity knowledge, attitudes and behaviours and identify approaches to improve social acceptability of management actions. We will use our model-based analysis to co-design surveillance and management solutions with key stakeholders including Defra EAB preparedness board, EFSA, the Forestry Commission that will inform and feed into policy development.