Preparedness and planning for the mountain hazard and risk chain in Nepal

背景大约有10亿人生活在发展中国家的山区。在山区生活在多种灾害的影响下，如季风降雨、地震和山体滑坡，对许多人来说是一个日常现实。灾害的短期和长期影响往往因其同时或相继发生的时间以及发生灾害的社会政治背景而被夸大。这一背景是由于政府支离破碎、人口快速变化以及全球(地缘)政治利益的非常本地化的影响造成的。因此，灾害对社会中一些最脆弱的成员产生反复和不成比例的影响。虽然已经对社会政治背景以及人们面临的个人危险和风险进行了大量研究，但很少将这项工作用于灾害风险管理。目的与目的为了解决这一问题，我们在现有长期合作的基础上，研究如何最好地开发和使用新的跨学科科学，以帮助为更好的决策提供信息，并减少山区国家多重灾害的影响。我们把重点放在尼泊尔，它与其他低收入国家有许多相似之处，这些国家承受着地震和季风降雨以及新出现的系统性风险造成的复杂的多重灾害。尼泊尔也正在经历复杂的社会、政治和经济转型，这与联邦政府制度的变化和地缘政治压力的变化有关，所有这些都发生在一个危险但人口稠密的地区。我们研究的每个目标都旨在对居民、政府和国际社会做出决策以管理多重危险和系统性风险的方式产生重大影响。它们包括：(1)批判性地思考我们目前对尼泊尔发生灾害的社会、政治、经济和环境背景的理解，以及我们用来评估这一背景的数据；(2)为复杂的多灾害事件建立国家规模战略规划的新方法，其中包括相关地震、季风和山体滑坡的后果；(3)发展跨学科科学，以预测、规划和传播季风期间发生的各种灾害；以及(4)寻找利用当地知识和跨学科科学的最佳方法，以告知如何准备和应对多种灾害。潜在的应用和益处为了实现我们的目标，我们召集了一支由尼泊尔和来自不同学科的国际研究人员组成的团队，包括地球科学、社会科学和人文科学，他们在这一问题的各个方面都有过往的记录。我们共同的目标是：(1)开发新的基础数据和证据，以支持决策；(2)建立途径，以有用和有用的形式和时间框架，将尽可能好的信息提供给有需要的人；(3)批判性地思考如何有效地管理多种危险和风险；以及(4)培育一个支持年轻研究人员和从业者的环境，他们将成为尼泊尔灾害风险管理的未来。我们将我们的建议置于我们与尼泊尔农村居民的长期社区工作的背景下，并反思他们关于需要作出更好的决定以减少他们面临的风险的表述。我们还加强了我们与尼泊尔政府和联合国在风险管理方面的工作，他们协调该国的灾害规划工作。政府、联合国以及主要的发展和人道主义组织从一开始就参与了这项提案的制定，以确保以灵活、联合、以证据为基础的方法来管理多种危险和风险。

ContextNearly 1 bn people live in mountain landscapes within developing countries. Living with the impacts of multiple hazards in mountainous regions, such as monsoon rainfall, earthquakes and landsliding, is for many a day-to-day reality. Both the short- and long-term impacts of hazards are often exaggerated by their concurrent or sequential timing, and by the socio-political context in which they occur. This context results from fragmented government, rapid population change, and the very localized impacts of global (geo)political interests. As a result, hazards have recurring and disproportionate impacts on some of the most vulnerable members of society. While much research has been conducted on both the socio-political context and the individual hazards and risks that people face, this work is rarely used for disaster risk management. Aims & objectivesTo tackle this, we build on our existing long-standing collaborations with the aim of examining how best to develop and use new interdisciplinary science to help inform better decision making and reduce the impacts of multi-hazards in mountain countries. We focus on Nepal, which has many similarities to other lower-income countries that endure complex multi-hazards resulting from earthquakes and monsoon rainfall as well as emerging systemic risks. Nepal is also undergoing complex social, political and economic transformation associated with a change to a federal system of government and changing geopolitical pressures, all within a hazardous yet densely populated landscape.The objectives of our research are each designed to make a significant difference to the ways in which residents, government, and the international community take decisions to manage multi-hazards and systemic risks. They include:(1) Thinking critically about our current understanding of the social, political, economic and environmental context within which disasters occur in Nepal, and the data that we use to assess that context;(2) Establishing a new approach to national-scale strategic-planning for complex multi-hazard events, which includes the consequences of linked earthquakes, monsoons and landslides;(3) Developing interdisciplinary science to anticipate, plan for, and communicate the range of hazards that occur during the monsoon; and(4) Finding the best ways to utilise local knowledge and interdisciplinary science to inform how to prepare for and respond to multi-hazard disasters.Potential applications and benefitTo achieve our objectives, we bring together a team of Nepali and international researchers from a range of disciplines, including geoscience, social science and the humanities, who have track records in various facets of this issue. Together, we aim to: (1) develop new fundamental data and evidence to underpin decision-making, (2) establish pathways for getting the best possible information to those who need it, in a format and timeframe that are useful and usable, (3) think critically about how multi-hazards and risks can be effectively managed, and (4) nurture an environment that supports the young researchers and practitioners who will be the future of disaster risk management in Nepal.We ground our proposal within the context of our long-term community-based work with rural residents in Nepal, and reflect upon their articulations of the need to make better decisions to reduce the risks that they face. We also build upon our work on managing risks with the Government of Nepal and the United Nations, who coordinate disaster planning in the country. The Government, UN, and major development and humanitarian organisations have been involved from the outset in developing this proposal to ensure an agile, joined-up, evidence-based approach to multi-hazard and risk management.