Earthquakes without frontiers: a partnership for increasing resilience to seismic hazard in the continents

地震无国界：增强大陆抗震能力的伙伴关系

• 批准号: NE/J01995X/1
• 负责人: Alexander Densmore
• 金额: $ 97.16万
• 依托单位: Durham University
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2012 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FJ01995X%2F1
• 关键词: Earthquakes; without; frontiers; partnership; increasing

Between 2 and 2.5 million people have died in earthquakes since 1900, and approximately two-thirds of those deaths have occurred in the continental interiors, far from the plate boundaries. Over this time interval, advances in the scientific understanding of earthquakes have been translated into impressive resilience in regions where the hazard is well understood (eg California, Chile, and Japan). Here, resilience is defined as the ability of a community to resist, accommodate, or adapt to the effects of an earthquake, to maintain critical basic functions, and to recover after the event. Comparable advances have not, however, taken place in most parts of the continental interiors. Instead, many parts of the continental interiors, and particularly the Alpine-Himalayan belt, have seen a major increase in vulnerability to earthquakes in the last few decades, due to a wide range of social, economic, and governance issues. Increasing resilience to continental earthquakes and their related hazards is therfore an urgent scientific and societal priority. This goal requires a holistic view of earthquakes, and collaboration between physical scientists, social scientists, practitioners, and governments on a scale that has not yet been attempted. Our project knits together three groups with extensive and successful track records in (i) the science of earthquakes and related hazards [COMET+, the Dynamic Earth and Geohazards research group in the National Centre of Earth Observation, and the British Geological Survey Hazards Group] (ii) exploring the social science of resilience to emerging hazards and risks [Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience, University of Durham, and associated researchers] and (iii) the use of research to promote evidence-based policy [Overseas Development Institute].First, we shall establish a global partnership between researchers from six UK universities, two UK research centers, and representatives of a wide range of governmental and non-governmental organisations from countries across the Alpine-Himalayan belt. This partnership will be focused on communication and sharing of research needs and knowledge gaps, basic research findings and outputs, and new approaches for building resilience to earthquakes across the region.This partnership will carry out coupled physical- and social-science research in three case-study areas (China, central Asia, and the Himalayan front). Our understanding of earthquake occurrence across this large region is currently too poor to provide detailed estimates of likely earthquake probabilities and effects at the sub-national scales needed by communities - let alone to provide forecasts of earthquake occurrence. One component of the project involves research into the locations of active faults across the region, the rates at which they are currently deforming, and the ground shaking that they are likely to produce. This basic physical science research, which will also include the effects of secondary hazards such as landsliding, will provide baseline scenarios about the hazards in forms that are meaningful for, and usable by, the communities at risk.At the same time, we shall map and identify the societal factors that help or hinder the creation of resilience to those physical hazards. This holistic approach to resilience will include investigation of cultural practices and adaptations, economic considerations, social mechanisms, and the role that governance at all scales plays in determining how resilience communities are to earthquakes.The overall framework of this project, provided by the ODI's RAPID methodology, will allow us to draw upon the expertise of the partner organisations, and the research findings outlined above, to generate a set of evidence-based toolkits and policy recommendations that together will define the pathways by which resilience to earthquakes can best be increased, both in the case-study areas and across the entire partnership.

自1900年以来，有200万至250万人死于地震，其中大约三分之二的死亡发生在远离板块边界的大陆内部。在这段时间里，对地震的科学认识的进步已经转化为对地震危害有充分了解的地区（如加利福尼亚、智利和日本）令人印象深刻的恢复能力。这里，弹性被定义为社区抵抗、容纳或适应地震影响的能力，维持关键的基本功能，并在事件发生后恢复的能力。然而，在大陆内部的大部分地区并没有发生类似的进步。相反，由于广泛的社会、经济和治理问题，大陆内部的许多地区，特别是阿尔卑斯-喜马拉雅地带，在过去几十年里对地震的脆弱性大大增加。因此，提高对大陆地震及其相关灾害的抵御能力是科学和社会的当务之急。这一目标需要对地震有一个整体的看法，需要物理科学家、社会科学家、从业者和政府之间的合作，这是迄今为止尚未尝试过的。我们的项目将三个具有广泛成功记录的小组结合在一起：(1)地震和相关灾害的科学[彗星+，国家地球观测中心的动态地球和地质灾害研究小组，以及英国地质调查局灾害小组]；(2)探索对新出现的灾害和风险的恢复能力的社会科学[杜伦大学灾害、风险和恢复能力研究所]；（iii）利用研究促进循证政策[海外发展研究所]。首先，我们将在六所英国大学、两所英国研究中心的研究人员以及来自阿尔卑斯-喜马拉雅地带各国的政府和非政府组织的代表之间建立一个全球伙伴关系。这一伙伴关系将侧重于交流和分享研究需求和知识差距、基础研究成果和产出，以及在整个地区建立抗灾能力的新方法。这一伙伴关系将在三个案例研究领域（中国、中亚和喜马拉雅前沿）开展自然科学和社会科学的联合研究。我们对这一大区域地震发生的了解目前还太贫乏，无法提供社区所需的次国家尺度上可能发生地震的概率和影响的详细估计——更不用说提供地震发生的预测了。该项目的一个组成部分包括研究该地区活动断层的位置，它们目前的变形速度，以及它们可能产生的地面震动。这项基础物理科学研究还将包括诸如山体滑坡等次生灾害的影响，它将以对处于危险中的社区有意义和可用的形式提供关于灾害的基线情景。与此同时，我们将绘制和确定有助于或阻碍建立抵御这些物理危害的复原力的社会因素。这种复原力的整体方法将包括对文化习俗和适应、经济考虑、社会机制的调查，以及各种规模的治理在决定社区对地震的复原力方面所起的作用。该项目的总体框架由对外开放署的RAPID方法提供，将使我们能够利用合作伙伴组织的专业知识和上述研究成果，生成一套基于证据的工具包和政策建议，这些工具包和建议将共同确定在案例研究领域和整个合作伙伴关系中最好地提高地震复原力的途径。

项目成果

Dynamic liquefaction of shear zones in intact loess during simulated earthquake loading

• DOI: 10.1007/s10346-016-0746-y
• 发表时间: 2017-06-01
• 期刊: LANDSLIDES
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Carey, J. M.;McSaveney, M. J.;Petley, D. N.
• 通讯作者: Petley, D. N.

Displacement mechanisms of slow-moving landslides in response to changes in pore water pressure and dynamic stress

缓慢移动滑坡响应孔隙水压力和动应力变化的位移机制

• DOI: 10.5194/esurf-2018-73
• 发表时间: 2018
• 作者: Carey J

Slow episodic movement driven by elevated pore-fluid pressures in shallow subaqueous slopes

浅水下斜坡中孔隙流体压力升高驱动的缓慢间歇运动

• DOI: 10.1016/j.geomorph.2018.12.034
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Geomorphology
• 影响因子: 3.9
• 作者: Carey J

A systematic exploration of satellite radar coherence methods for rapid landslide detection

滑坡快速探测卫星雷达相干方法的系统探索

• DOI: 10.5194/nhess-20-3197-2020
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Burrows K

Displacement mechanisms of slow-moving landslides in response to changes in porewater pressure and dynamic stress

• DOI: 10.5194/esurf-7-707-2019
• 发表时间: 2018-10
• 期刊: Earth Surface Dynamics
• 影响因子: 3.4
• 作者: J. Carey;C. Massey;B. Lyndsell;D. Petley