Building rural resilience in seismically active regions

在全球范围内增强对地震的抗灾能力已成为一项重要的研究和政策议程，但大部分焦点都集中在城市地区，尤其是特大城市。尽管如此，在全球南方的许多地震易发国家，农村地区仍占人口的70%以上，这表明农村居民将占未来地震易发人群的很大比例。农村地区尤其脆弱，因为他们往往缺乏应对灾害的资源和专业知识。这种脆弱性可能因移徙和农村人口减少的模式而大大增强，留下那些最没有能力减轻或应对灾害的居民；通过扩大非正式的，城市周边的定居点，在城镇和城市的边缘。此外，对农村人口构成最大威胁的灾害（如山体滑坡）不同于城市地区的灾害（如建筑物倒塌和基础设施破坏），这表明在城市吸取的经验教训可能还不够。本研究的主要目的是了解全球南方农村地区社区对地震相关危害的认知，以及增加农村社区对地震危害脆弱性的因素，以期确定当前物理科学和社会科学领域的研究需求。具体而言，本研究将(1)确定当地对地震和滑坡灾害的了解程度，并探讨如何在考虑到外行人日常生活问题的情况下，最好地让他们参与到有关罕见高震级事件的讨论中；(2)识别增加农村社区地震易损性的因素；(3)利用情景和参与性演习来探索一套共同制定的解决方案或应对策略，如微观尺度的灾害评估，社区可以使用这些解决方案或应对策略来增强其对地震的抵御能力；(4)确定在实施这些战略之前必须解决的任何障碍或研究差距。范围界定研究将以尼泊尔为重点；一个可能早该发生一次或多次大地震的国家，一个非政府组织提高地震危害意识的运动迄今往往集中在城市地区，一个在农村地区进行的实地研究表明，当地人口对地震的认识最低的国家。与我们的项目合作伙伴NSET和Kadambari学院（国家社会工作学院）合作，我们将比较两个社区：一个是最近定居的城郊地区，另一个是更偏远的已建立的农村社区。该项目的主要成果将是确定当前的研究需求和阻碍在社区一级实施有效恢复力措施的差距。当结合对地震灾害的新研究和伴随大地震的许多次要危险时，我们的项目将为如何最好地将对地震的科学理解与当地如何应对地震的知识结合起来提供指导。

While increasing resilience to earthquakes around the globe has become a major research and policy agenda, much of the focus has been on urban areas, and megacities in particular. Despite this, rural areas still contain more than 70% of the population of many earthquake-prone countries in the Global South, indicating that rural residents will make up a significant proportion of those exposed to future earthquakes. Rural areas are particularly vulnerable because they often lack the resources and expertise to respond to disasters. This vulnerability may be greatly enhanced by patterns of migration and rural depopulation, leaving behind those residents who are least able to mitigate or respond to disasters; and through the expansion of informal, peri-urban settlements, on the periphery of towns and cities. In addition, the hazards that pose the greatest threat to rural populations (such as landsliding) differ from those in urban areas (such as building collapse and the destruction of infrastructure) suggesting that the transfer of lessons learned in cities may be inadequate. The main aims of this study are to understand community perception of earthquake-related hazard in rural areas of the Global South, and the factors increasing the vulnerability of rural communities to seismic hazards, with a view to identifying current research needs across the physical and social sciences. Specifically, this study will (1) determine the extent of local understanding of earthquake and landslide hazard, and explore how, given lay people's everyday livelihood concerns, to best engage them in discussions around rare high-magnitude events; (2) identify the factors that increase the vulnerability of rural communities to seismic hazards; (3) use scenarios and participatory exercises to explore a set of co-produced solutions or coping strategies, such as micro-scale hazard assessment, that communities might use to enhance their resilience to earthquakes; and (4) identify any barriers to their uptake or research gaps that must be addressed before these strategies can be implemented. The scoping study will focus on Nepal; a country where one or more great earthquakes may be overdue, where campaigns by NGOs to raise awareness of earthquake hazards have tended so far to focus on urban areas, and where field research in rural areas suggests that there is minimal earthquake awareness among local populations. Working with our project partners NSET and Kadambari College (National School of Social Work), we will compare two communities: a recently-settled, peri-urban area and a more remote, established rural community. The primary outcome of the project will be the identification of current research needs and the gaps that will prevent implementation of effective resilience measures at the community level. When combined with new research on earthquake hazards and the many secondary perils that accompany large earthquakes, our project will provide guidance for how best to merge scientific understanding of earthquakes with local knowledge of how to live with them.