NC ODA 1 Year Extension

ACREW的首要目标是进行研究，以建立发展中国家对大气危害的复原力。拟议的工作方案将侧重于两种危害：空气污染和恶劣天气-这两种危害对穷人的影响都不成比例。空气污染是许多发展中经济体面临的一个严重问题，导致预期寿命减少10年，GDP每年减少5%。基础设施薄弱和依赖雨水灌溉的农业使发展中国家的人口极易受到天气变化的影响。在发展中国家的大气危害：风险评估和预警（ACREW）项目（2017-2020）中，NCAS专注于两种特定的大气危害，与当地合作伙伴合作，将尖端研究转化为实际应用。在为期一年的ACREW项目延期中，我们建立了两个关键的研究主题-建立空气污染测量的新技术能力，以及对影响农业部门的气象灾害的新预测能力，这两个项目都以非洲为重点。虽然这两个主题所涉及的研究活动和合作伙伴关系在科学上彼此不同，但我们在NCAS中以综合的方式工作，以分享ODA相关研究的最佳实践，并在可能的情况下利用我们在空气质量和气象灾害方面的合作伙伴网络来接触更广泛的用户受众。在空气污染科学领域，我们特别关注在传感器科学和制造方面取得的最新突破的基础上，开发新的开源测量工具。在气象灾害领域，我们确定了一系列案例研究作为重点，以最大限度地发挥影响，并维持ACREW早期阶段建立的伙伴关系。在量化中低收入国家空气污染的技术能力方面，长期存在严重差距，最近的2019年联合国儿童基金会报告《非洲的无声窒息》强调了这一点。现有的监控设备不能容忍不可靠的电源，具有高运营成本，高能源需求，并且长期维护非常昂贵。在过去的三年中，ACREW为世界上最贫穷国家的可持续空气质量信息的基础科学提供了新的见解。NCAS开创了一种全新的可持续测量概念，利用最先进的传感器和电子设备的简单性，适度的成本和高可靠性，但通过采用多路复用传感器测量整体（或“集群”），大大提高了收集的数据质量。我们在这里寻求开展研究活动，目标是为空气质量测量创建一个经过现场测试的可扩展和实用的解决方案。为期一年的延期将使NCAS能够集中精力共同设计，共同生产和现场测试高度容错的基于传感器的空气污染测量系统。在前几个阶段，改进了次季节至季节时间尺度的气象预测，促进了评估农业干旱、热带气旋和极端降雨风险的新方法的发展。此外，新的观测和再分析阐明了与中美洲风能供应有关的潜在可预测的大规模环流制度。在上述所有应用中，通过考虑预测技能的变化，可以进一步改进风险评估。例如，在MJO的特定阶段，极端降雨的预测可能更可靠。确定可靠预测的机会窗口，以及改进风险评估的实际应用，将是ACREW下一阶段的主题。

The overarching aim of ACREW is to undertake research that builds thew resilience of developing countries to atmospheric hazards. The proposed programme of work will focus on two hazards: air pollution and adverse weather - both of which disproportionately impact poor people. Air pollution is a critical problem in many developing economies, reducing life expectancy by up to a decade, and GDP by up to 5% per year. Weak infrastructure and dependence on rain fed agriculture render the populations of developing countries critically vulnerable to variation in the weather. Within the Atmospheric hazard in developing Countries: Risk assessment and Early Warning (ACREW) project (2017-2020) NCAS has focused on two particular atmospheric hazards, working with local partners to translate cutting edge research into practical application. In this one-year extension to the ACREW project, we build on two key research themes - building new technological capability for air pollution measurement, and new predictive capability for meteorological hazards that impact the agriculture sectors, both with a focus on Africa. Although the research activities and partnerships involved in these two themes are scientifically distinct from one another, we work in an integrated way across NCAS to share best practice in ODA-related research, and where possible use our networks of partners in air quality and meteorological hazard to reach a boarder user audience. In the area of air pollution science we particularly focus in this one-year extension on the development of novel open-source measurement tools, building on recent breakthroughs made in sensor science and fabrication. In the area of meteorological hazards, we have identified a series of case studies as the focus, in order to maximise impact and sustain the partnerships developed in the earlier phases of ACREW.There is a long-standing critical gap in technological capability for quantifying air pollution in LMICs most recently highlighted by the 2019 UNICEF report "Silent suffocation in Africa". Existing monitoring equipment are not tolerant to unreliable power supplies, have high operational costs, high energy demand, and are very expensive to maintain in the long-term. Over the past three years ACREW has delivered new insight into the basic science of sustainable air-quality information in the world's poorest countries. NCAS has pioneered an entirely new concept for sustainable measurements exploiting the simplicity, modest cost and high reliability of state-of-the-art sensors and electronics, but drastically improving the quality of data collected by employing a multiplexed sensors measuring in an ensemble (or 'cluster'). We are seeking here to undertake research activities with the goal to create a field-tested scalable and practical solution for air quality measurement. This one-year extension will enable NCAS to focus efforts on co-designing, co-producing and field testing highly fault-tolerant sensor-based systems for air pollution measurement. In the previous stages of ACREW, improved meteorological prediction on sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales has facilitated the development of new methodologies for assessing the risk of agricultural drought, tropical cyclones and extreme rainfall . New observations and reanalysis have, furthermore, elucidated potentially predictable large scale circulation regimes associated with wind energy supply in Central America. In all of the applications described above, risk assessment could be improved further by accounting for variation in prediction skill. For example, predictions of extreme rainfall may be more robust during particular phases of the MJO. Identification of windows of opportunity for robust prediction, and practical application for improved risk assessment will be the themes of the next phase of ACREW.