SWIMMR Activities in Ground Effects (SAGE)

空间天气是公认的对英国几个关键国家基础设施的危害，包括电力，管道和铁路网络，可能对社会产生重大（数十亿磅，许多天）的经济影响。在SWIMMR项目N4（“地面效应预报”）的背景下，对这些基础设施造成影响的根本驱动力是在空间天气造成的地磁暴期间地面现有电场（地面电场，或GEF）的增强。该GEF的作用就像一个“不需要的”额外电池，应用于已经导电的电路。因此，全球环境基金是地球表面电流和电压的来源，可能扰乱电网及其电力变压器、管道防腐系统和铁路信号系统等系统的安全和持续运行。因此，SAGE项目的总体目标是更好地进行即时预测，并首次预测英国的全球环境基金。从这个新的能力，我们提出的项目也将施加这个现在/预测全球环境基金的数学模型，英国电力，管道和铁路网络。由此，我们将计算在空间天气下每个系统中的风险点在哪里，以及在恶劣的空间天气下可能产生多大的影响。这将有助于政府、工业界和其他利益攸关方更好地了解和减轻恶劣空间天气对这些关键技术的影响。这些目标（对全球环境基金进行实时预报和预测，并量化对地面技术的危害）完全符合这一领域国际公认的目标，并将在这一领域发挥领导作用，例如世界气象组织和联合国所描述的目标。为了达到我们可以提出这一雄心勃勃的项目的地步，英国的科学能力最近受益于NERC 2017年关于“空间天气对地基系统的影响”的“亮点主题”项目（SWIGS：www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/research/SWIGS/home.html），该项目由PI领导。SWIGS的目标是发展支撑空间气象地面效应的科学，同时还创建和开发基础设施模型，以便能够量化空间气象影响。SWIGS帮助改进了英国的空间天气电网模型，为该国建立了第一个空间天气高压天然气管道模型，并对空间天气对英国铁路网的影响提出了新的见解。SWIGS的合作者还开发了联合王国在电离层和磁层磁场物理和经验建模方面的独立能力，电离层和磁层磁场利用太阳风输入驱动全球环境基金。SAGE项目小组由来自英国南极调查局、英国地质调查局、帝国学院和Mullard空间科学实验室（伦敦）的国际知名科学家组成。该项目的合作者寻求建立在SWIGS团队的成就，通过耦合几个数学模型在SWIGS项目期间构建，代表问题的不同元素，以及实施新的预测想法。这将提供一个与英国气象局合作并由其提供的可操作的即时预报和预报系统。这一运行系统将获取地球附近的测量或预测太阳风数据，并利用这些数据估计全球环境基金目前和未来对英国电力、管道和铁路网络的影响，最多提前1小时。这些结果将在英国气象局空间气象操作中心的一系列网络显示系统上提供，并将传达给工业界和公众。

Space weather is a recognised hazard to several critical UK national infrastructures, including the power, pipeline and rail networks, with the potential for substantial (multi-billion pound, many days) economic impact on society. In the context of the SWIMMR project N4 ('Ground Effects Forecasts'), the fundamental driver of impact to these infrastructures is the enhancement of the existing electric field in the ground (the ground electric field, or GEF) during geomagnetic storms, which results from space weather. This GEF acts like an 'unwanted' extra battery applied to an already electrically conducting circuit. The GEF is therefore the source of electrical currents and voltages at the Earth's surface that can upset safe and continued operation of systems such as power grids and their power transformers, and systems for pipeline corrosion avoidance and for railway signalling. The overall aim of the SAGE project is therefore to be better at now-casting, and for the first time ever, forecasting the GEF in the UK. Flowing from this new capability, the project we propose will also impose this now/forecast GEF on mathematical models of the UK power, pipeline and rail networks. From this we will calculate where the risk points are in each system, under space weather, and how big the impacts might be during severe space weather. This will help government, industry and other stakeholders better understand and mitigate the effects of severe space weather in these key technologies. Such aims (now-casting and forecasting the GEF and quantifying the hazard to ground-based technologies) are fully in line with, and will be leading, in terms of internationally recognised goals in this area, for example as described by the World Meteorological Organisation and the United Nations.To get to the point where we can propose this ambitious project, UK scientific capability has recently benefited from the NERC 2017 'Highlight Topic' project on 'Space Weather Impacts on Ground-based Systems' (SWIGS: www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/research/SWIGS/home.html), led by the PI on this present proposal. SWIGS has had the aim of developing the science underpinning the ground effects of space weather, whilst also creating and developing infrastructure models such that space weather impact can be quantified. SWIGS has helped improve a space weather power grid model for the UK, led to the first space weather high pressure gas pipeline model for the country and has produced new insights into space weather impact on the UK rail network. SWIGS collaborators have also developed independent UK capability in physical and empirical modelling of ionospheric and magnetospheric magnetic fields, which drive the GEF, with solar wind input. These novel capabilities will be fully harnessed in the proposal described here.The SAGE project team comprises internationally known scientists from British Antarctic Survey, British Geological Survey, Imperial College and Mullard Space Science Laboratory (University College London). The project collaborators seek to build on the achievements of the SWIGS team, by coupling several mathematical models constructed during the SWIGS project, representing different elements of the problem, as well as implementing novel forecasting ideas. This will provide an operational now-cast and forecast system in partnership with, and delivered by, Met Office. This operational system will take measured or forecast solar wind data near the Earth and use these to estimate present and future GEF impacts on the power, pipeline and rail networks of the UK, up to 1 hour ahead. These results will be made available on a series of web displays on systems at the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre and will be communicated to industry and the public.