Space Weather Impacts on Ground-based Systems (SWIGS)

空间天气对地面系统的影响 (SWIGS)

• 批准号: NE/P017142/1
• 负责人: Jonathan Eastwood
• 金额: $ 40.37万
• 依托单位: Imperial College London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2017 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FP017142%2F1
• 关键词: Space; Weather; Impacts; Ground; based

Space weather describes the changing properties of near-Earth space, which influences the flow of electrical currents in this region, particularly within the ionosphere and magnetosphere. Space weather results from solar magnetic activity, which waxes and wanes over the Sunspot cycle of 11 years, due to eruptions of electrically charged material from the Sun's outer atmosphere. Particularly severe space weather can affect ground-based, electrically conducting infrastructures such as power transmission systems (National Grid), pipelines and railways. Ground based networks are at risk because rapidly changing electrical currents in space, driven by space weather, cause rapid geomagnetic field changes on the ground. These magnetic changes give rise to electric fields in the Earth that act as a 'battery' across conducting infrastructures. This 'battery' causes geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) to flow to or from the Earth, through conducting networks, instead of in the more resistive ground. These GIC upset the safe operation of transformers, risking damage and blackouts. GIC also cause enhanced corrosion in long metal pipeline networks and interfere with railway signalling systems.Severe space weather in March 1989 damaged power transformers in the UK and caused a long blackout across Quebec, Canada. The most extreme space weather event known - the 'Carrington Event' of 1859 - caused widespread failures and instabilities in telegraph networks, fires in telegraph offices and auroral displays to low latitudes. The likelihood of another such extreme event is estimated to be around 10% per decade. Severe space weather is therefore recognised in the UK government's National Risk Register as a one-in-two to one-in-twenty year event, for which industry and government needs to plan to mitigate the risk. Some studies have estimated the economic consequence of space weather and GIC to run to billions of dollars per day in the major advanced economies, through the prolonged loss of electrical power.There are mathematical models of how GIC are caused by space weather and where in the UK National Grid they may appear (there are no models of GIC flow in UK pipelines or railway networks). However these models are quite limited in what they can do and may therefore not provide a true picture of GIC risk in grounded systems, for example highlighting some locations as being at risk, when in fact any problems lie elsewhere. The electrical model that has been developed to represent GIC at transformer substations in the National Grid misses key features, such as a model of the 132kV transmission system of England and Wales, or any model for Northern Ireland. The conductivity of the subsurface of the UK is known only partly and in some areas not at all well. (We need to know the conductivity in order to compute the electric field that acts as the 'battery' for GIC.) The UK GIC models only 'now-cast', at best, and they have no forecast capability, even though this is a stated need of industry and government. We do not have tried and tested now-cast models, or even forecast models, of magnetic variations on the ground. This is because of our under-developed understanding of how currents flow in the ionosphere and magnetosphere, how these interconnect and how they relate to conditions in the solar wind. In this project we will therefore upgrade existing or create new models that relate GIC in power, pipe and railway networks to ionospheric, magnetospheric and solar wind conditions. These models will address the issues we have identified with the current generation of models and their capabilities and provide accurate data for industry and governments to assess our risk from space weather. In making progress on these issues we will also radically improve on our physical understanding of the way electrical currents and electromagnetic fields interact near and in the Earth and how they affect the important technologies we rely on.

空间天气描述了近地空间不断变化的特性，这些特性影响着该区域特别是电离层和磁层内的电流流动。空间天气是由太阳磁场活动造成的，由于太阳外层大气中带电物质的喷发，太阳磁场活动在11年的太阳黑子周期中有增有减。特别严重的空间天气可能影响地面导电基础设施，如输电系统（国家电网）、管道和铁路。地面网络处于危险之中，因为由空间天气驱动的空间电流迅速变化，导致地面地磁场迅速变化。这些磁场变化在地球上产生了电场，这些电场在导电基础设施中充当“电池”。这种“电池”导致地磁感应电流（GIC）通过导电网络流入或流出地球，而不是在电阻更大的地面。这些GIC破坏了变压器的安全运行，有损坏和停电的危险。1989年3月，恶劣的太空天气损坏了英国的电力变压器，并导致加拿大魁北克长时间停电。1859年的卡林顿事件是已知的最极端的太空天气事件，它导致电报网络的广泛故障和不稳定，电报局的火灾和低纬度的极光显示。另一次这样的极端事件的可能性估计为每十年10%左右。因此，在英国政府的国家风险登记册中，恶劣的空间天气被认为是两年到二十年一遇的事件，行业和政府需要计划减轻风险。一些研究估计，在主要发达经济体，由于长期停电，空间天气和GIC每天造成的经济后果高达数十亿美元。有数学模型可以说明GIC是如何由空间天气引起的，以及它们可能出现在英国国家电网的何处（英国管道或铁路网络中没有GIC流量的模型）。然而，这些模型在其所能做的方面非常有限，因此可能无法提供接地系统中GIC风险的真实情况，例如，突出显示某些位置处于风险中，而实际上任何问题都存在于其他地方。为表示国家电网中Transformer变电站的GIC而开发的电气模型缺少关键特征，例如英格兰和威尔士的132 kV输电系统模型或北方爱尔兰的任何模型。英国地下的电导率只知道一部分，在某些地区根本不清楚。(We需要知道电导率，以便计算充当GIC“电池”的电场。）英国GIC模型充其量只是“现在铸造”，他们没有预测能力，即使这是一个行业和政府的声明需要。我们还没有尝试和测试过地面磁场变化的现有模型，甚至是预测模型。这是因为我们对电流如何在电离层和磁层中流动、它们如何相互连接以及它们如何与太阳风的条件相关的理解不足。因此，在这个项目中，我们将升级现有的或创建新的模型，将电力、管道和铁路网络中的GIC与电离层、磁层和太阳风条件联系起来。这些模型将解决我们已经确定的当前一代模型及其能力的问题，并为工业和政府评估我们的空间天气风险提供准确的数据。在这些问题上取得进展，我们也将从根本上提高我们对电流和电磁场在地球附近和地球内部相互作用的方式以及它们如何影响我们所依赖的重要技术的物理理解。

项目成果

Auroral, Ionospheric and Ground Magnetic Signatures of Magnetopause Surface Modes

• DOI: 10.1029/2022ja031081
• 发表时间: 2023-02
• 期刊: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
• 作者: M. Archer;M. Hartinger;L. Rastätter;D. Southwood;M. Heyns;J. Eggington;A. Wright;F. Plaschke;X. Shi

Quantifying the Economic Value of Space Weather Forecasting for Power Grids: An Exploratory Study

• DOI: 10.1029/2018sw002003
• 发表时间: 2018-12-01
• 期刊: SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS
• 影响因子: 3.7
• 作者: Eastwood, J. P.;Hapgood, M. A.;Burnett, C.
• 通讯作者: Burnett, C.

Climatological predictions of the auroral zone locations driven by moderate and severe space weather events.

• DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-25704-2
• 发表时间: 2023-01-15
• 期刊: SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Maffei, Stefano;Eggington, Joseph W. B.;Livermore, Philip W. W.;Mound, Jonathan E. E.;Sanchez, Sabrina;Eastwood, Jonathan P. P.;Freeman, Mervyn P. P.
• 通讯作者: Freeman, Mervyn P. P.

Response timescales of the magnetotail current sheet during a geomagnetic storm: Global MHD simulations

• DOI: 10.3389/fspas.2022.966164
• 发表时间: 2022-09
• 作者: J. Eggington;J. Coxon;R. Shore;R. Desai;L. Mejnertsen;J. Chittenden;J. Eastwood

Drift Orbit Bifurcations and Cross-Field Transport in the Outer Radiation Belt: Global MHD and Integrated Test-Particle Simulations

• DOI: 10.1029/2021ja029802
• 发表时间: 2021-10-01
• 期刊: JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS
• 影响因子: 2.8
• 作者: Desai, R. T.;Eastwood, J. P.;Chittenden, J. P.
• 通讯作者: Chittenden, J. P.