Drivers and Repercussions of UK Insect Declines (DRUID)

由于其数量和多样性，昆虫主宰着自然生态系统和过程。昆虫的大规模减少可能会产生深远的影响。然而，尽管公众越来越担心可能的“昆虫世界末日”，但即使在英国（可以说是地球上研究得最好的国家之一），昆虫广泛减少的证据仍然是零碎的;我们也不了解昆虫为更广泛的社会提供的价值。我们需要一个更强大的证据基础来为政策提供可靠的基础，设计扭转昆虫减少的方法，并保护昆虫在多种生态系统服务中发挥的作用。我们已经组建了四个英国领先的昆虫动力学研究团队，以评估昆虫减少的原因，后果和潜在的补救措施。我们将结合联合收割机数据从标准化的昆虫监测计划的范围广泛的类群，生物多样性数据库的模拟输出，和新的测定使用天气雷达信号，以评估昆虫的丰度，多样性，功能组成和生物量的变化在陆地和淡水生态系统在英国各地。物种一级的趋势数据将相对于一系列潜在的驱动变量和物种特征进行评估，以全面综合各分类群和环境的下降模式。该团队通过广泛的正在进行的环境研究项目和合作伙伴组织，无与伦比地获得了最新的英国数据集和建模发展，涵盖昆虫和环境驱动因素，分辨率低至1公里或更高。我们的研究结果将用于通知机械模型，以预测整个英国的昆虫物种和功能群在空间和时间上的动态。将评估昆虫减少的功能后果，特别关注在空中（鸟/蝙蝠）和水生（鱼）系统中作为猎物的营养作用，授粉和害虫控制功能，以及淡水和陆地生态系统之间的营养运输。昆虫群落的改变如何与经济和文化价值相联系，将通过审查现有的研究进行评估，并对研究不足的生态系统服务（如文化服务）采用参与性估值方法。以上开发的种群、群落和功能模型将应用于一组不同的、对比鲜明的未来气候、土地利用和政策情景，以预测有无具体缓解措施的昆虫动态。将与相关利益攸关方共同设计情景和减缓备选方案，并将其与现有气候情景和规划的农业环境计划联系起来。将使用基于利益相关者的估值方法，对人类福利和自然资本的近期、当前和未来情景的后果进行估计。我们新颖的综合方法将保证高质量和高影响力的研究成果，这些成果将广泛传播给科学界和利益相关者社区以及公众。通过在项目的早期阶段让相关政策和决策者参与进来，项目成果将与土地管理、生物多样性保护和自然资本方法的实施方面的持续政策制定直接相关，从而最大限度地提高对社会和自然世界产生重大影响的可能性。

Due to their vast numbers and diversity, insects dominate natural ecosystems and processes. Wholesale insect declines could have profound consequences. Yet despite growing public concern about a possible "insect Armageddon," evidence of widespread insect declines remains fragmentary, even in the UK (arguably one of the best studied countries on Earth); nor do we understand the value that insects provide for wider society. A far stronger evidence-base is required to provide a secure basis for policy, to devise methods to reverse insect declines and protect the roles that insects play in multiple ecosystem services.We have assembled four of the UK's leading insect dynamics research teams to assess the causes, consequences and potential remedies of insect declines. We will combine data from standardised insect monitoring programmes of a wide range of taxa, modelled outputs of biodiversity databases, and novel assays using weather radar signals to assess shifts in insect abundance, diversity, functional composition and biomass in both terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems across Britain. Species-level trend data will be assessed relative to a range of potential driver variables and species' traits in an overarching synthesis of decline patterns across taxa and environments. The team has unrivalled access to the latest UK datasets and modelling developments covering insects and environmental drivers down to 1-km resolution or finer, through a wide range of on-going environmental research projects and collaborating partner organisations. Our results will be used to inform mechanistic models to predict the dynamics of insect species and functional-groups across the UK in space and time. Functional consequences of insect declines will be assessed, with particular focus on trophic roles as prey in aerial (bird/bat) and aquatic (fish) systems, pollination and pest control functions, and in nutrient transport between freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems. How alterations in insect communities are linked to economic and cultural values will be assessed through a review of existing studies, augmented with participatory valuation approaches for ecosystem services that are poorly studied, such as cultural services. The population, community and functional models developed above will be applied to a diverse set of contrasting future climate, land-use and policy scenarios, to predict insect dynamics with and without specific mitigation measures. Both scenarios and mitigation options will be co-designed together with relevant stakeholders and linked to existing climate scenarios and planned agri-environmental schemes. Consequences of recent past, current and future scenarios for human welfare and natural capital will be estimated, using stakeholder-based valuations. Our novel, integrated approach will guarantee high quality and high impact research outputs, which will be widely disseminated to the scientific and stakeholder communities, and the general public. By engaging relevant policy and decision-makers at an early stage of the project, results will be tailored and directly relevant to on-going policy development in land management, biodiversity conservation and the implementation of natural capital approaches, maximising the likelihood of substantial impacts on both society and the natural world.