Drivers and Repercussions of UK Insect Declines (DRUID)

英国昆虫减少的驱动因素和影响 (DRUID)

• 批准号: NE/V007165/1
• 负责人: Simon Potts
• 金额: $ 65.29万
• 依托单位: University of Reading
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2021 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FV007165%2F1
• 关键词: Drivers; Repercussions; UK; Insect; Declines

Due to their vast numbers and diversity, insects dominate natural ecosystems and processes. Wholesale insect declines could have profound consequences. Yet despite growing public concern about a possible "insect Armageddon," evidence of widespread insect declines remains fragmentary, even in the UK (arguably one of the best studied countries on Earth); nor do we understand the value that insects provide for wider society. A far stronger evidence-base is required to provide a secure basis for policy, to devise methods to reverse insect declines and protect the roles that insects play in multiple ecosystem services.We have assembled four of the UK's leading insect dynamics research teams to assess the causes, consequences and potential remedies of insect declines. We will combine data from standardised insect monitoring programmes of a wide range of taxa, modelled outputs of biodiversity databases, and novel assays using weather radar signals to assess shifts in insect abundance, diversity, functional composition and biomass in both terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems across Britain. Species-level trend data will be assessed relative to a range of potential driver variables and species' traits in an overarching synthesis of decline patterns across taxa and environments. The team has unrivalled access to the latest UK datasets and modelling developments covering insects and environmental drivers down to 1-km resolution or finer, through a wide range of on-going environmental research projects and collaborating partner organisations. Our results will be used to inform mechanistic models to predict the dynamics of insect species and functional-groups across the UK in space and time. Functional consequences of insect declines will be assessed, with particular focus on trophic roles as prey in aerial (bird/bat) and aquatic (fish) systems, pollination and pest control functions, and in nutrient transport between freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems. How alterations in insect communities are linked to economic and cultural values will be assessed through a review of existing studies, augmented with participatory valuation approaches for ecosystem services that are poorly studied, such as cultural services. The population, community and functional models developed above will be applied to a diverse set of contrasting future climate, land-use and policy scenarios, to predict insect dynamics with and without specific mitigation measures. Both scenarios and mitigation options will be co-designed together with relevant stakeholders and linked to existing climate scenarios and planned agri-environmental schemes. Consequences of recent past, current and future scenarios for human welfare and natural capital will be estimated, using stakeholder-based valuations. Our novel, integrated approach will guarantee high quality and high impact research outputs, which will be widely disseminated to the scientific and stakeholder communities, and the general public. By engaging relevant policy and decision-makers at an early stage of the project, results will be tailored and directly relevant to on-going policy development in land management, biodiversity conservation and the implementation of natural capital approaches, maximising the likelihood of substantial impacts on both society and the natural world.

由于其数量庞大和多样性，昆虫在自然生态系统和过程中占据主导地位。昆虫批发数量的减少可能会产生深远的后果。然而，尽管公众越来越担心可能发生的“昆虫世界末日”，但昆虫广泛减少的证据仍然零碎，即使在英国（可以说是地球上研究最深入的国家之一）也是如此。我们也不了解昆虫为更广泛的社会提供的价值。需要更强大的证据基础来为政策提供安全的基础，设计扭转昆虫衰退的方法并保护昆虫在多种生态系统服务中发挥的作用。我们组建了四个英国领先的昆虫动力学研究团队来评估昆虫衰退的原因、后果和潜在的补救措施。我们将结合来自各种类群的标准化昆虫监测计划的数据、生物多样性数据库的模拟输出以及使用天气雷达信号的新颖分析，以评估英国陆地和淡水生态系统中昆虫丰度、多样性、功能组成和生物量的变化。将在跨类群和环境的衰退模式的总体综合中，相对于一系列潜在驱动变量和物种特征来评估物种水平趋势数据。通过广泛的正在进行的环境研究项目和合作伙伴组织，该团队能够以无与伦比的方式访问最新的英国数据集和模型开发，涵盖昆虫和环境驱动因素，分辨率可达 1 公里或更精细。我们的结果将用于为机械模型提供信息，以预测英国各地昆虫物种和功能群在空间和时间上的动态。将评估昆虫减少的功能后果，特别关注在空中（鸟类/蝙蝠）和水生（鱼类）系统中作为猎物的营养作用、授粉和害虫控制功能以及淡水和陆地生态系统之间的养分运输。将通过审查现有研究来评估昆虫群落的变化如何与经济和文化价值联系起来，并通过对文化服务等研究不足的生态系统服务的参与式评估方法进行补充。上述开发的种群、群落和功能模型将应用于各种对比鲜明的未来气候、土地利用和政策情景，以预测有或没有具体缓解措施的昆虫动态。情景和缓解方案将与相关利益相关者共同设计，并与现有的气候情景和规划的农业环境计划联系起来。将使用基于利益相关者的估值来估计近期、当前和未来情景对人类福利和自然资本的影响。我们新颖的综合方法将保证高质量和高影响力的研究成果，这些成果将广泛传播给科学界和利益相关者群体以及公众。通过在项目的早期阶段让相关政策和决策者参与进来，结果将得到定制，并与土地管理、生物多样性保护和自然资本方法实施方面持续的政策制定直接相关，最大限度地提高对社会和自然世界产生重大影响的可能性。