Drivers and Repercussions of UK Insect Declines (DRUID)

英国昆虫减少的驱动因素和影响 (DRUID)

• 批准号: NE/V007165/1
• 负责人: Simon Potts
• 金额: $ 65.29万
• 依托单位: University of Reading
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2021 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FV007165%2F1
• 关键词: Drivers; Repercussions; UK; Insect; Declines

Due to their vast numbers and diversity, insects dominate natural ecosystems and processes. Wholesale insect declines could have profound consequences. Yet despite growing public concern about a possible "insect Armageddon," evidence of widespread insect declines remains fragmentary, even in the UK (arguably one of the best studied countries on Earth); nor do we understand the value that insects provide for wider society. A far stronger evidence-base is required to provide a secure basis for policy, to devise methods to reverse insect declines and protect the roles that insects play in multiple ecosystem services.We have assembled four of the UK's leading insect dynamics research teams to assess the causes, consequences and potential remedies of insect declines. We will combine data from standardised insect monitoring programmes of a wide range of taxa, modelled outputs of biodiversity databases, and novel assays using weather radar signals to assess shifts in insect abundance, diversity, functional composition and biomass in both terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems across Britain. Species-level trend data will be assessed relative to a range of potential driver variables and species' traits in an overarching synthesis of decline patterns across taxa and environments. The team has unrivalled access to the latest UK datasets and modelling developments covering insects and environmental drivers down to 1-km resolution or finer, through a wide range of on-going environmental research projects and collaborating partner organisations. Our results will be used to inform mechanistic models to predict the dynamics of insect species and functional-groups across the UK in space and time. Functional consequences of insect declines will be assessed, with particular focus on trophic roles as prey in aerial (bird/bat) and aquatic (fish) systems, pollination and pest control functions, and in nutrient transport between freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems. How alterations in insect communities are linked to economic and cultural values will be assessed through a review of existing studies, augmented with participatory valuation approaches for ecosystem services that are poorly studied, such as cultural services. The population, community and functional models developed above will be applied to a diverse set of contrasting future climate, land-use and policy scenarios, to predict insect dynamics with and without specific mitigation measures. Both scenarios and mitigation options will be co-designed together with relevant stakeholders and linked to existing climate scenarios and planned agri-environmental schemes. Consequences of recent past, current and future scenarios for human welfare and natural capital will be estimated, using stakeholder-based valuations. Our novel, integrated approach will guarantee high quality and high impact research outputs, which will be widely disseminated to the scientific and stakeholder communities, and the general public. By engaging relevant policy and decision-makers at an early stage of the project, results will be tailored and directly relevant to on-going policy development in land management, biodiversity conservation and the implementation of natural capital approaches, maximising the likelihood of substantial impacts on both society and the natural world.

由于它们的数量和多样性，昆虫主导了自然生态系统和过程。批发昆虫下降可能会产生深远的后果。然而，尽管公众对可能的“昆虫世界末日”的关注越来越大，但即使在英国，昆虫下降的广泛昆虫下降的证据仍然是零散的（可以说是地球上研究最好的国家之一）。我们也不了解昆虫为更广泛的社会提供的价值。需要更强大的证据基础来为政策提供安全的基础，以设计昆虫下降并保护昆虫在多种生态系统服务中所扮演的角色的方法。我们汇集了英国四个领先的昆虫动力学研究团队，以评估昆虫下降的原因，后果和潜在的补救措施。我们将结合来自广泛分类单元的标准化昆虫监测计划，生物多样性数据库的建模输出的数据，并使用天气雷达信号来评估整个英国地面和淡水生态系统中昆虫丰度，多样性，功能组成和生物量的变化。物种级别的趋势数据将相对于一系列潜在的驱动器变量和物种特征评估，这是整个分类单元和环境下降模式的总体综合。该团队通过广泛的持续的环境研究项目和合作合作伙伴组织，无与伦比访问最新的英国数据集和建模开发项目，涵盖了昆虫和环境驱动力的分辨率或更罚款。我们的结果将用于为机械模型提供信息，以预测英国在时空上的昆虫物种和功能组的动态。将评估昆虫下降的功能后果，尤其侧重于在空中（鸟/蝙蝠）和水生（鱼）系统，授粉和害虫控制功能以及淡水和陆地生态系统之间的养分运输方面的营养作用。如何通过对现有研究的审查来评估昆虫群落与经济和文化价值观的变化，并通过研究不足的生态系统服务（例如文化服务）进行了参与式估值方法。上面开发的人口，社区和功能模型将应用于一组对比的未来气候，土地利用和政策情景，以预测有或没有特定缓解措施的昆虫动态。方案和缓解选项都将与相关的利益相关者共同设计，并与现有的气候场景和计划的农业环境计划相关联。使用基于利益相关者的估值，将估算过去，过去和将来对人类福利和自然资本的后果的后果。我们的新颖，综合的方法将保证高质量和高影响力的研究成果，该成果将被广泛传播到科学和利益相关者社区以及公众。通过在项目的早期参与相关政策和决策者，结果将是量身定制的，直接与土地管理，生物多样性保护和实施自然资本方法的持续政策制定直接相关，从而最大程度地对社会和自然世界产生实质性影响的可能性。