Drivers and Repercussions of UK Insect Declines (DRUID)

由于数量众多和多样性，昆虫在自然生态系统和过程中占主导地位。昆虫的大量减少可能会产生深远的影响。然而，尽管公众越来越担心可能发生的“昆虫世界末日”，但即使在英国（可以说是地球上研究得最好的国家之一），昆虫大量减少的证据仍然是零碎的；我们也不了解昆虫为更广泛的社会提供的价值。需要更有力的证据基础，为政策提供可靠的基础，设计扭转昆虫减少的方法，保护昆虫在多种生态系统服务中发挥的作用。我们召集了四个英国领先的昆虫动力学研究小组来评估昆虫数量下降的原因、后果和潜在的补救措施。我们将结合来自各种分类群的标准化昆虫监测项目的数据，生物多样性数据库的模拟输出，以及使用气象雷达信号的新分析，以评估英国陆地和淡水生态系统中昆虫丰度、多样性、功能组成和生物量的变化。物种水平的趋势数据将相对于一系列潜在的驱动变量和物种特征进行评估，以综合不同分类群和环境的下降模式。通过广泛的正在进行的环境研究项目和合作伙伴组织，该团队拥有无与伦比的英国最新数据集和建模发展，涵盖昆虫和环境驱动因素，分辨率低至1公里或更小。我们的研究结果将被用来为机械模型提供信息，以预测英国昆虫物种和功能群在空间和时间上的动态。将评估昆虫减少的功能后果，特别侧重于作为空中（鸟/蝙蝠）和水生（鱼）系统猎物的营养作用、授粉和虫害控制功能以及淡水和陆地生态系统之间的营养运输。昆虫群落的变化是如何与经济和文化价值联系起来的，将通过对现有研究的审查来评估，并辅以对文化服务等研究不足的生态系统服务的参与性评估方法。上述开发的人口、群落和功能模型将应用于一套不同的未来气候、土地利用和政策情景对比，以预测有或没有具体缓解措施的昆虫动态。情景和缓解方案都将与相关利益攸关方共同设计，并与现有气候情景和规划的农业环境计划联系起来。将使用基于利益相关者的估值，估计过去、现在和未来情景对人类福利和自然资本的影响。我们新颖的综合方法将保证高质量和高影响力的研究成果，这些成果将广泛传播给科学界和利益相关者社区以及公众。通过在项目的早期阶段让相关政策和决策者参与进来，结果将被量身定制，并与正在进行的土地管理、生物多样性保护和自然资本方法实施方面的政策制定直接相关，从而最大限度地提高对社会和自然界产生重大影响的可能性。

Due to their vast numbers and diversity, insects dominate natural ecosystems and processes. Wholesale insect declines could have profound consequences. Yet despite growing public concern about a possible "insect Armageddon," evidence of widespread insect declines remains fragmentary, even in the UK (arguably one of the best studied countries on Earth); nor do we understand the value that insects provide for wider society. A far stronger evidence-base is required to provide a secure basis for policy, to devise methods to reverse insect declines and protect the roles that insects play in multiple ecosystem services.We have assembled four of the UK's leading insect dynamics research teams to assess the causes, consequences and potential remedies of insect declines. We will combine data from standardised insect monitoring programmes of a wide range of taxa, modelled outputs of biodiversity databases, and novel assays using weather radar signals to assess shifts in insect abundance, diversity, functional composition and biomass in both terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems across Britain. Species-level trend data will be assessed relative to a range of potential driver variables and species' traits in an overarching synthesis of decline patterns across taxa and environments. The team has unrivalled access to the latest UK datasets and modelling developments covering insects and environmental drivers down to 1-km resolution or finer, through a wide range of on-going environmental research projects and collaborating partner organisations. Our results will be used to inform mechanistic models to predict the dynamics of insect species and functional-groups across the UK in space and time. Functional consequences of insect declines will be assessed, with particular focus on trophic roles as prey in aerial (bird/bat) and aquatic (fish) systems, pollination and pest control functions, and in nutrient transport between freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems. How alterations in insect communities are linked to economic and cultural values will be assessed through a review of existing studies, augmented with participatory valuation approaches for ecosystem services that are poorly studied, such as cultural services. The population, community and functional models developed above will be applied to a diverse set of contrasting future climate, land-use and policy scenarios, to predict insect dynamics with and without specific mitigation measures. Both scenarios and mitigation options will be co-designed together with relevant stakeholders and linked to existing climate scenarios and planned agri-environmental schemes. Consequences of recent past, current and future scenarios for human welfare and natural capital will be estimated, using stakeholder-based valuations. Our novel, integrated approach will guarantee high quality and high impact research outputs, which will be widely disseminated to the scientific and stakeholder communities, and the general public. By engaging relevant policy and decision-makers at an early stage of the project, results will be tailored and directly relevant to on-going policy development in land management, biodiversity conservation and the implementation of natural capital approaches, maximising the likelihood of substantial impacts on both society and the natural world.