Community Scenarios Of Hydrogen Energy And Impacts On Air Pollution

空气污染是英国面临的主要环境挑战。能源部门是空气污染物的主要来源。已经提出了几项战略来实现净零排放，每一项战略都将对未来的空气污染产生不同的影响。我们的目标是了解采用氢技术可能如何影响英国未来的空气污染。氢最有可能用于难以脱碳的行业，如货运和工业，这些行业的电气化在技术上具有挑战性，并在一些家庭和办公室中取代天然气供暖。但是，氢气还有许多其他潜在用途，未来的使用量分配非常不确定。我们将研究2050年之前不同行业氢气使用量不同的一系列情景，以了解对空气污染的影响。这些情景将在伦敦大学学院使用UK TIMES能源系统模型生成，该模型代表了英国所有实质性的能源流动和温室气体排放。使用氢气将使我们能够减少对石油和天然气等污染燃料的消耗，并成为生物质的替代品，例如，用于家庭供暖的木材可能会产生高污染。我们将使用帝国理工学院的英国综合评估模型（UKIAM）来研究在我们的情景中采用氢气后未来可能发生的空气质量变化。UKIAM旨在研究英国未来的空气污染减排情景。它的分辨率为1公里，可以绘制未来全国空气质量的变化情况，并对健康影响和经济成本进行相关评估。我们将用它来估计全国范围内采用氢气对健康的影响。在英国，未来氢气很可能由低碳电力或天然气生产，但也可以以液态氢或富氢化合物（如氨）的形式进口。氨可以广泛用作船舶燃料，也可以为工业和重型公路运输提供动力。我们将使用TIAM-UCL能源系统模型研究全球氢能情景，以了解英国未来可能进口氢和氨的程度。它还将使我们能够了解氨动力船舶是否可能在英国沃茨运行，以及这些水域的空气质量影响。最后，由于氢气是一种间接的温室气体，我们将对未来全球氢气泄漏进行预测，以便我们能够估计温室气体的影响。

Air pollution is a key environmental challenge for the UK. The energy sector is a major source of air pollutants. Several strategies have been proposed to move to net zero emissions and each will have different implications for air pollution in the future. Our aim is to understand how adopting hydrogen technologies is likely to affect UK air pollution in the future.Hydrogen is most likely to be used in hard-to-decarbonise sectors such as freight and industry, where electrification is technically challenging, and to replace natural gas heating in some homes and offices. But there are numerous other potential uses for hydrogen, and the allocation of future take-up is very uncertain.We will examine a range of scenarios up to 2050 with different levels of hydrogen take-up, in different sectors, to understand the consequences for air pollution. These scenarios will be produced using the UK TIMES energy system model at UCL, which represents all substantive energy flows and greenhouse gas emissions in the UK.Using hydrogen will enable us to reduce our consumption of polluting fuels such as oil and natural gas, and be an alternative to biomass where, for example, wood used for domestic heating can be highly polluting. We will use the UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM) at Imperial College to examine the changes in air quality that might occur in the future due to adopting hydrogen in our scenarios.UKIAM has been designed to study future air pollution abatement scenarios in the UK. It works at a 1 km resolution and can map how air quality might vary across the country in the future with associated assessment of health impacts and economic costs. We will use it to estimate the health impacts across the country of adopting hydrogen.Hydrogen is likely to be produced from low-carbon electricity or natural gas in the UK in the future, but could also be imported in the form of liquid hydrogen or as a hydrogen-rich compound such as ammonia. Ammonia could have widespread use as a shipping fuel and could also power industry and heavy-duty road transport.We will examine global hydrogen energy scenarios using the TIAM-UCL energy system model to understand the extent to which the UK might import hydrogen and ammonia in the future. It will also enable us to understand whether ammonia-powered shipping might operate in UK waters, and the air quality implications of these. Finally, as hydrogen is an indirect greenhouse gas, we will produce projections of future global hydrogen leakage so we can estimate the greenhouse gas impacts.