LTLS Freshwater Ecosystems ("LTLS-FE"): Analysis and future scenarios of Long-Term and Large-Scale freshwater quality and impacts

长期大规模-淡水生态系统（LTLS-FE）：英国的河流在过去和现在都受到一系列压力，这是由于化学物质和副产品的释放，如家庭废水、酸雨、向土壤施用营养物和杀虫剂，以及使用国内产品，如药品。虽然其中一些压力（如酸雨、废水排放）在最近几十年似乎有所缓解，但其他压力（如农药、营养物）仍然存在，并可能在增加。除了这些压力，预计气候变化也会影响英国河流的质量，例如，通过导致人为化学物质使用的变化，通过改变河流中的水量，从而改变可用于稀释化学物质的水量，通过使风暴和洪水更频繁或更少，以及通过改变从陆地冲进河流的化学物质的数量。气候变化也可能影响淡水生物多样性，例如，在暴风雨期间增加生物体接触有毒化学物质脉冲的机会，或者增加英国河流被外来物种入侵的可能性，这些外来物种的竞争优势超过了本地物种。英国河流的质量和健康引起了许多群体的极大兴趣，包括依靠水进行游泳和垂钓等娱乐活动的普通公众，负责改善和保持水质的监管机构，以及部分依赖河流提供饮用水的水务公司。因此，重要的是，我们要尽可能了解水质和健康如何受到未来社会使用化学品和水的方式变化的影响，以及气候变化如何进一步影响水质和健康。这是一个复杂的问题，因为影响河流质量的因素很多，而且会随着时间和地点的不同而变化。该项目将通过开发一个模型来解决这个问题，该模型将利用这些驱动因素来预测化学物质的投入、河流质量和河流健康在不同的“途径”或社会和气候变化情景下将如何变化。通过这样做，我们将提供一系列关于未来河流质量和健康的“预测”。这些预测将有助于科学家和决策者了解控制河流质量和健康的主要因素。这将有助于他们制定解决方案，以管理和改善影响河流质量和健康的因素可能发生的变化，目标是在不断变化的世界中保持和改善英国河流的状况。除了我们对英国河流质量和健康的未来可能的预测外，我们还将在项目结束时向所有人提供数据和模型代码。这将为其他研究人员提供可能性，例如改变模型的数学，在新化学物质出现时添加新化学物质，或将该模型应用于世界其他国家和地区。

Long Term Large Scale - Freshwater Ecosystems (LTLS-FE): Rivers in the United Kingdom have in the past and the present been subjected to a range of pressures due to the release of chemicals and by-products, such as domestic wastewater, acid rain, the application of nutrients and pesticides to soils, and the use of domestic products such as medicines. While some of these pressures (e.g. acid rain, wastewater discharges) appear to have eased over recent decades, others (e.g. pesticides, nutrients) remain and may be increasing. In addition to these pressures, climate change is also expected to impact on the quality of UK rivers, for example by leading to changes in anthropogenic chemical use, by changing the amount of water in rivers and thus how much water is available to dilute chemicals, by making storms and floods more or less frequent, and by changing the volume of chemicals washed into rivers from the land. Climate change could also influence freshwater biodiversity, for example by increasing the exposure of organisms to pulses of toxic chemicals during storms or by increasing the likelihood that UK rivers are invaded by alien species which outcompete native species. The quality and health of UK rivers are of great interest to many groups - the general public who rely on waters for recreation such as swimming and angling, to the regulators who are tasked with improving and then maintaining water quality, and to water companies who partly rely on rivers for drinking water supplies. It is therefore important that we try to understand as well as possible how water quality and health might be affected by future changes in the way society uses chemicals and water, and how these might be further affected by climate change. This is a complex problem, because the factors that drive river quality are many and they will vary over time and from place to place. This project will tackle the problem by developing a model that will use these drivers to predict how chemical inputs, river quality and river health will change in the context of different 'pathways', or scenarios of change in society and climate. By doing this, we will provide a range of 'projections' of future river quality and health. These projections will help scientists and policymakers to understand the main factors controlling river quality and health. This will help them to develop solutions to manage and ameliorate possible changes in the factors that influence river quality and health, with the goal of maintaining and improving the state of UK rivers in a changing world. As well as our projections of possible futures for UK river quality and health, we will make the data and model code available to all at the end of the project. This will provide other researchers with possibilities such as changing the mathematics of the model, adding new chemicals as they emerge, or applying the model to other countries and parts of the world.