Towards climate stabilisation: understanding changes in climate, climate variability, and impacts

《巴黎协定》的目标是，全球变暖应限制在比工业化前高2度，如果可能的话，应限制在1.5度。该协定的含义是，全球气温应永久保持在这一阈值或以下。为了将全球气温长期稳定在一个给定的水平，必须停止全球范围的变暖。这只能通过将温室气体排放量减少到净零来实现。如果所有现有的气候政策都得到成功实施，世界目前正处于全球变暖2.5至3度的轨道上。鉴于巴黎协定的明确目标是将升温限制在2度以内，因此研究将温度稳定在特定的全球变暖水平对地球仪不同地区的区域气候意味着什么非常重要。有证据表明，即使在相同的全球变暖水平下，稳定的气候也可能与快速变暖的气候大不相同。然而，解释这些平均状态差异的物理机制仍然知之甚少。在平均状态之外，人们对气候变率的内部模式在更温暖、稳定的气候中可能有何不同的了解就更少了。变异模式的模式、频率或幅度的变化将对世界许多地区产生严重影响。平均状态和内部气候变率的变化必须量化和理解，并纳入未来的气候变化风险评估。除了需要包括稳定的气候预测外，气候变化风险评估还需要考虑自然对气候的影响。一个经常被忽视的具有重大后果的风险是，在未来气候变暖的情况下，可能会发生一系列大规模火山爆发。世纪曾发生过几次连续的大规模火山喷发，类似的喷发序列可能再次发生。本研究将探讨在稳定气候下发生一系列大型火山爆发的故事情节。本研究将填补我们对未来可能的气候变化和区域气候风险评估的重要空白。气候模式模拟是探索未来可能气候和研究未来气候变化机制的重要工具。目前，只有很少的实验旨在研究稳定在特定的全球变暖水平存在。新的合奏旨在研究气候稳定和火山爆发的反应在一个温暖，稳定的气候将在这个奖学金。这种非常新颖的方法将产生对未来世界的风险的重要见解，在未来世界中，温度已经稳定，并产生宝贵的资源，在本奖学金结束时与广大科学界分享。该研究金的成果将为今后十年及以后的政策和适应讨论提供信息。

The aims of the Paris Agreement state that global warming should be limited to 2 degrees of warming above pre-industrial and 1.5 if possible. The implication of the Agreement is that global temperatures should permanently stay at or below this threshold. To stabilise global temperatures at a given level in the long-term, warming at the global scale must be halted. This can only be achieved by reducing emissions of greenhouse gases to net-zero. If all existing climate policies are successfully implemented, the world is currently on track for between 2.5 and 3 degrees of global warming. Given the explicit aims of the Paris Agreement to limit warming to less than 2 degrees, it is important to study what stabilising temperatures at specific global warming levels would mean for regional climate in different regions across the globe.Research into stabilised climates is still in its early stages. Evidence is beginning to emerge that a stabilised climate could be very different from a rapidly warming climate, even at the same global warming level. However, the physical mechanisms explaining these differences in the mean state remain poorly understood. Beyond the mean state, even less is known about how internal modes of climate variability might differ in a warmer, stabilised climate. Changes in the pattern, frequency, or amplitude of modes of variability would have severe impacts across much of the world. Changes in the mean state and in internal climate variability must be quantified and understood, and incorporated into future climate change risk assessments. In addition to needing to include stabilised climate projections, climate change risk assessments also need to account for natural influences on climate. An often overlooked risk with significant consequences is the possibility of a series of large volcanic eruptions occurring in a future warmer climate. Several successive large volcanic eruptions occurred in the 19th century, and a similar sequence of eruptions could occur again. A storyline where a series of large volcanic eruptions occur in a stabilised climate will be explored in this fellowship.This fellowship will fill an important gap in our assessments of possible future climate change and regional climate risk. Climate model simulations are an important tool to explore possible future climates and investigate the mechanisms of future climate change. Currently, only very few experiments designed to study stabilisation at specific global warming levels exist. Novel ensembles designed to study climate stabilisation and the response to volcanic eruptions in a warmer, stabilised climate will be produced in this fellowship. This highly novel approach will generate important insights into the risks of a future world where temperatures have stabilised and produce a valuable resource to be shared with the broad science community at the end of this fellowship. The outcomes of this fellowship will inform policy and adaptation discussions over the next decade and beyond.