Climate Change Impact on Midlatitude Cyclone Intensity, Tracks, and Impacts (CLIM-CITI)

温带气旋（ETCs），也被称为中纬度风暴或风暴，在北半球通常会穿过北太平洋进入美国，穿过北大西洋进入欧洲。每年进入欧洲的风暴由于强风和暴雨造成数十亿欧元的损失。我们目前对这些欧洲风暴未来将如何变化的最佳估计是非常不确定的，这意味着政府和行业很难就如何适应未来潜在的变化做出决定。我们用来做预测的最先进的气候模型在过去20年左右的时间里得到了改进，但它们仍然难以正确地代表中纬度风暴及其轨迹。在这个项目中，我们希望采用一种新的方法来评估这些气候模型，以便更深入地了解模型的可靠性，模型网格间距的相关性，通过进一步的模型开发需要改进的地方，以及我们如何利用这种见解来做出更好的未来预测。我们不能简单地等待下一代更高分辨率的气候模型，并希望风暴路径得到更好的反映。这种方法将考虑风暴发展和增强的方式，使我们能够将类似的风暴分组进行分析。由于(1)从最新的气候模式模拟中获得的变量数量的增加，以及(2)项目调查人员的综合专业知识，这一雄心勃勃的方法现在成为可能。该项目的结果将为模式开发工作提供信息，并有可能提供一种机制，以更优化地结合不同气候模式的未来预估，从而提高对这些未来预估的信心。我们将与环境署进行讨论，以确保研究结果对他们提高气候适应能力和加强灾害风险管理的努力有用。我们还将与考虑气候变化对其财产投资组合脆弱性影响的再保险公司讨论我们的研究结果。

Extratropical cyclones (ETCs), also known as midlatitude storms or windstorms, in the Northern Hemisphere typically track across the North Pacific into the US and across the North Atlantic into Europe. The storms that track into Europe cause billions of Euros of damage each year due to their strong winds and heavy rain. Our current best estimates of how these European storms will change in the future are very uncertain, meaning that it is difficult for governments and industry to make decisions about how to adapt to potential future changes. The state-of-the-art climate models we use to make projections have improved over the past 20 years or so, but they still struggle to correctly represent the midlatitude storms and where they track. In this project we want to take a new approach to the evaluation of these climate models in order to gain deeper understanding of the reliable aspects of the models, the relevance of model grid-spacing, what needs to be improved through further model development, and how we can use this insight to make better future projections. We cannot simply wait for the next generation of higher-resolution climate models and hope for the storm tracks to be better represented. This approach will consider the ways in which the storms develop and become stronger, allowing us to group similar storms for analysis. The ambitious approach is now possible due to (1) an increase in the number of variables available from the most recent climate model simulations, and (2) the combined expertise of the project investigators. The outcomes of this project will inform model development efforts, and have the potential to provide a mechanism for more optimally combining the future projections of different climate models in order to have better confidence in these future projections. We will discuss with the Environment Agency to ensure the results can be useful to their efforts to improve climate resilience and enhance disaster risk management. We will also discuss our results with reinsurance companies who are considering the impacts of climate change on the vulnerability of their property portfolios.