Intelligent Transport Systems and Services: Informed Logistics

该项目将开发和证明基于代理的建模和复杂系统动力学的使用，以创建国家和区域货运远景规划，战略和规划的新方法。目标是创建和验证第一代工具集，以支持定义交通运输面临的日益困难的政策和投资选择。总体目标是应对DaSTS的挑战：一个低碳的世界，也提供经济生产力。这些选择没有得到能够评价根本变化的工具的支持，包括国家和区域两级设计和规划选择中的行为决定因素及其相互作用。使用复杂系统思维的基于主体的建模现在提供了解决这个问题的前景，因为它正在成功地应用于其他领域。该项目具有创新性，因为公共部门规划者和私营部门公司无法利用运营数据整合货运模式，以了解投资、监管、财政措施和规划之间复杂的战略互动关系。MDS Transmodal（主要合作伙伴）可以访问与货运运营中的关键代理相关的运营数据：1.开发商决定在哪里建立一个分配网站，该网站的规模，以及它是否应该是铁路或水连接; 2。货主，可以是发送者或接收者，在给定需要运输的货物矩阵的情况下，货主决定如何通过他/她可用的网络和仓库最有效地将货物从起点移动到目的地; 3.运输供应商将为货主提供最低的整体成本解决方案，同时考虑风险和库存成本问题;以及4.码头和/或港口运营商，仅在涉及铁路或海上运营的情况下相关，但需要考虑作为每一货物流动的一种选择。使用这些信息，CSRC将根据MDST持有的大量数据以及LCP（合作伙伴）利用其物流专业知识进行的验证，确定货运代理规则。中国证监会预计采访政府的主要政策制定者和工业合作伙伴公司的决策者，以确定政策选择的潜力和决策者的可能响应能力。将根据专有知识开发基于代理的模型工具集，但扩展到货运的新领域。将建立一个经过验证的原型模型，旨在代表当前系统的运作，并将其动态扩展到未来，以衡量可能的临界点和低弹性时间。然后，通过改变现有参数的值和引入新的参数，可以对各种政策干预进行建模。战略的确定必须支持以下方面的量化和优先次序：能力投资决策、规划政策和土地使用、引入财政措施以纳入外部性的真实成本、潜在监管干预的影响以及私营和公共部门在货运和物流挑战中的作用。这些构成了政策干预措施，从而为货运制定符合碳和经济绩效双重目标的总体战略愿景提供了信息。

This project will develop and prove the use of agent based modelling and complex systems dynamics to create a new approach to national and regional freight transport visioning, strategy and planning. The goal is to create and prove a first generation toolset that will support definition of the increasingly difficult policy and investment choices that transport faces. The overall goal is to respond to the DaSTS challenges: a low carbon world that also delivers economic productivity. These choices are not supported by tools that can evaluate radical change, including behavioural determinants in design and planning choices at both the national and regional levels and how they interact. Agent based modelling using complex systems thinking now offers the prospect of addressing this, since it is being successfully applied in other areas. This project is innovative as integrating the freight modes using operational data to understand the complex strategic interaction of investment, regulation, fiscal measures and planning is not available to public sector planners and private sectore companies. MDS Transmodal (lead partner) have access to operational data relating to the perceived key agents in freight operation: 1. the developer who decides where to create a distribution site, the scale of that site and whether it should be rail or water connected; 2. the cargo owner, who may be the sender or the receiver, who decides how to move goods most efficiently from origin to destination through the network and warehouses available to him/her, given the matrix of goods that need to be transported; 3. The Transport Supplier who will provide the least overall cost solution to the cargo owner, taking into account issues of risk and inventory cost; and 4. the terminal and/or port operator, relevant only where rail or sea operation is involved but will need to be considered as an option for every cargo flow. Using this information CSRC will define the agent rules for freight transport, given the vast volumes of data held at MDST and by validation at LCP (collaborating partner) using their expertise in logistics. CSRC anticipate interviewing key policy makers in the government and decision makers in industrial partner firms, to establish the potential for policy options and the likely responsiveness of decision makers.An agent based model toolset will be developed based on proprietary knowledge but extending into the new domain of freight transport. A validated prototype model will be created which aims to represent the operation of the current system and extend its dynamics into the future to gauge likely tipping points and times of low resilience. The various policy interventions can then the modelled by changing the values of existing parameters and by the introduction of new parameters. Strategy determination must support the quantification and prioritisation of: capacity investment decisions, planning policy and land use, the introduction of fiscal measures to incorporate the true costs of externalities, the impact of potential regulatory interventions and the role of the private and public sectors in the freight and logistics challenges. These form the policy interventions and so inform the creation of an overall strategic vision for freight transport that meets the twin goals of carbon and economic performance.