Developing an Activity Based Travel Demand Model to Investigate the Impact of New Mobility Services

面对快速的城市化，城市交通网络面临压力，要求公共当局在提供高效的交通系统方面面临一系列挑战。由于对私家车的高度依赖、有限的空间和许多人相似的出行方式，交通拥堵和污染等问题变得更加严重。许多新技术的出现为通过创新的运输方式克服其中一些困难提供了机会。其中一项建议是移动即服务，即在访问、支付、预订方面整合多种移动服务。尽管现实世界的证据有限，但许多支持者认为MaaS是解决城市交通挑战的灵丹妙药，因此需要更多的工作来了解MaaS的潜在影响。本文以当前关于MaaS的工作为基础，从讨论可能的实现、业务生态系统和关于MaaS订阅选择的选择模型，到MaaS可能对个人旅行行为产生的影响。它扩展了当前最先进的基于活动的旅行需求建模方法，以纳入MaaS的动态。在包括分析MaaS的扩展之前，将首先开发反映当前情况的基线场景。一项新的调查将在伦敦进行，以了解人们对MaaS的偏好，以及它如何影响旅行模式。研究结果将整合到拟议的建模方法中，以了解如何引入MaaS来促进可持续的城市交通。作为研究的结果，将向主要利益相关者提供政策和业务战略建议。

Facing rapid urbanisation, urban transport networks are put under strain requiring public authorities to confront a number of challenges in providing an efficient transportation system. Issues such as congestion and pollution have become more serious with a high reliance on private vehicles, limited space and similar travel patterns of many individuals. The emergence of many new technologies provides the opportunity to overcome some of these difficulties through innovative provision of transportation. One such proposal is Mobility-as-a-Service, an integration of multiple mobility services in terms of access, payment, booking. Despite limited real-world evidence, many proponents hail MaaS as a silver bullet for the challenges of urban transport, resulting in a need for more work to understand the potential impact of MaaS. This thesis builds on the current body of work regarding MaaS, moving from discussions about possible implementations, the business ecosystem and choice modelling regarding choice of subscription to MaaS to the impact MaaS could have on individuals' travel behaviour. It extends the current state-of-the-art activity-based travel demand modelling approaches to incorporate the dynamics of MaaS. A baseline scenario reflecting the current situation will first be developed, before extensions to analyse MaaS are included. A new survey will be conducted in London to understand preferences regarding MaaS and how it may affect travel patterns. The results will be integrated within the proposed modelling approach to understand how MaaS should be introduced to contribute to sustainable urban mobility. Recommendations for policies and business strategies will be provided to key stakeholders as a result of the research.