The changing role of personal mobility

在过去十年中，我们看到了不同形式的私人交通工具的出现（在某些情况下，甚至是复苏）。汽车共享，拼车和海陵服务现在在发达国家很常见，自成立以来迅速普及（高盛，2017）。在弗朗西斯科等一些城市，优步和滴滴等叫车服务已经超过了出租车运输，预计到2030年，全球收入将达到2850亿美元（2016年为360亿美元）（高盛，2017）。汽车共享服务预计将经历更温和的增长，但在2025年将有3600万会员（2015年为700万）（Frost & Sullivan，2016）。因此，我们看到传统的汽车拥有模式增加了灵活性，以满足那些喜欢使用而不是拥有的人的需求。毫无疑问，这个新兴市场已经开始在发达国家扎根，并导致许多主要汽车制造商将自己定位为共享移动服务运营商（丰田，戴姆勒，宝马）。本研究旨在探讨这些变化对个人移动性、私人旅行以及汽车拥有量等移动性特征的影响。研究目的本项目有两个主要目的：1.发展和了解私人交通的结构和看法如何随着时间的推移而变化（a）了解个人旅行者对私人交通的看法，以及他们如何以及是否会改变（B）了解私人车辆所有权背后的潜在动机，以及他们是否可以被取代，替代或受到改变（c）确定不断变化的看法和机动性特征之间的任何相关性，如车辆所有权，汽车使用和汽车的市场份额。（a）确定这种新的私人运输结构如何融入更广泛的运输系统，以及它将在社会和行业中发挥什么作用。(b)确定由于新系统以及对私人交通和个人流动性的看法的改变而对出行模式和旅行行为的影响。(c)比较和批判性地分析现有的模型和对个人流动性和出行的理解;并分析其适用性。方法研究将采用定量方法，利用现有的出行需求模型和统计模型工具集来量化上述影响，并可能制定汽车拥有量模型。数据收集将涉及咨询现有的数据来源，如NTS和TFL旅游调查，以及通过调查收集的原始数据。此外，这项研究还可能使用定性研究方法，然后使用混合的“定量-定性”方法来为方法提供信息，并验证和扩展研究结果。该项目旨在采取措施，更好地了解个人移动性，从而更好地了解当前的出行需求建模方法-这是基础设施和土地使用规划的核心。目前关于私人交通结构变化的文献集中在汽车共享，海陵和拼车;然而，关于这些新模式对个人流动性，旅行者感知和旅行者特征的总体影响的文献尚未探索。这项研究最适合以下优先顺序的研究领域：基础设施和城市系统，工程设计，数字内容（主题）

In the last decade, we have seen the emergence (and in some cases the resurgence) of different forms of private transport. Car-sharing, carpooling, and ride hailing services are now commonplace in developed countries and have rapidly increased in popularity since their inception (Goldman Sachs, 2017). Ride-hailing services like Uber and Didi have eclipsed taxi transport in some cities like San Francisco and are forecasted to generate global revenue of $285bn ($36bn 2016) by 2030 (Goldman Sachs, 2017). Car sharing services are forecast to experience more modest but nevertheless also rapid growth with 36 million members (7 million 2015) in 2025 (Frost & Sullivan, 2016). Consequently, we have seen the classical vehicle ownership model increase in flexibility to cater for those who favour access over ownership. This new emergent market has undoubtedly begun to take root in the developed world and has led to many major car manufacturers to position themselves to become shared-mobility service operators (Toyota, Daimler, BMW). This research aims to address the impact of these changes on personal mobility, private travel, and mobility characteristics such as car ownership.Research QuestionThis project has two main aims:1. Develop and understanding of how the structure and perception of private transport has changed over time(a) Understand individual travellers' perceptions of private transport, and how and if they will change(b) Understand the underlying motives behind private vehicle ownership and whether they can be replaced, substituted, or are subject to change(c) Identify any correlations between changing perceptions and mobility characteristics such as vehicle ownership, car use and market share for the car.2. Develop an understanding of how this change will translate with regards to trip patterns and travel behaviour(a) Identify how this new structure of private transport fits into the wider transport system and what role it will play in society and industry.(b) Identify the impact on trip patterns and travel behaviour due to a new system and changing perceptions of private transport and personal mobility.(c) Compare and critically analyse current models and understanding of personal mobility and travel; and analyse their suitability.ApproachThe study will utilise a quantitative approach making use of existing travel demand modelling, and statistical modelling toolsets to quantify the aforementioned impacts and possibly develop a car ownership model. Data gathering will involve the consultation of existing data sources such as the NTS and TFL travel surveys, alongside primary data collected through surveys.Furthermore, this research will also possibly make use of qualitative research methods and subsequently utilise a hybrid "quantitative-qualitative" approach to inform the methodology; and validate and extend the research findings. Novel ContentThis project aims to take steps towards achieving a greater understanding of personal mobility and consequently, current approaches toward travel demand modelling - which is central to infrastructure and land use planning. Current literature on the changes in the structure of private transport focus on car sharing, ride hailing and carpooling; however literature on the overarching effect of these new modes on personal mobility, traveller perceptions, and traveller characteristics is unexplored. This research fits best into the following research areas in priority order: Infrastructure and urban systems, Engineering Design, Digital Content (Theme)