Stress in paradise: Quantifying the frequency and impacts of ENSO driven droughts in tropical Pacific Island Nations

由于面积小且与世隔绝，太平洋岛屿的自然资源有限而脆弱，这使得它们比大陆更容易受到气候灾害和压力的影响。太平洋岛国(PINS)也占据着地球表面受ENSO事件影响最直接的区域。厄尔尼诺事件的影响波及13个岛国的3975个岛屿，影响到1290万依赖降雨获得淡水和粮食安全的人口。到目前为止，我们对干旱的机制、干旱的频率和持续时间以及干旱对PIN的生物物理影响的了解仍然很少。此外，岛屿类型经历干旱的方式也不同，因其位置、地形、地质历史和生态而不同。干旱也被认为是人类在太平洋地区殖民的重要驱动因素。热带太平洋的干旱频率可能会增加，但其具体影响在很大程度上仍不得而知。这一博士学位试图在干旱频率的长期数据与基于过程的干旱模型的新耦合的基础上，在我们对干旱的理解上发展一个阶段性的变化。

Because of their small size and isolation, islands in the Pacific have limited and fragile natural resources, making them more vulnerable to climate hazards and stresses than are continents1. Pacific Island Nations (PINS) also occupy the region of the earth's surface most immediately impacted by ENSO events. The impacts of El Nino events are felt across 3,975 islands, 13 island nations, affecting a population of 12.9 million who rely on rainfall for freshwater and food security. To date our understanding of the mechanisms of drought, their frequency and duration, and their biophysical effects in PINs remain poorly quantified. In addition island types experience droughts differently, varying according to their location, topography, geological history and ecology. Droughts are also thought to have been important drivers of the human colonization of the Pacific2. Drought frequency is likely to increase in the tropical pacific but again its specific impacts are largely unknown. This PhD seeks to develop a step change in our understanding of droughts based on novel coupling of long term data on drought frequency with process based drought modelling.