Climate driven mismatches in fruit, pest and natural enemy phenology to mitigate crop damage

气候影响作物开花、结实和收获等关键事件的时间，但也影响作物害虫及其天敌的高峰丰度和发生。气候变化可能改变生物生命周期事件的时间和持续时间，导致“物候不匹配”或活动周期延长，从而对可持续作物生产产生影响。该博士将探讨气候变化对害虫控制的影响，这是一个关键的行业需求。英国梨园为本研究提供了一个理想的模型体系，因为；梨有一种优势害虫（梨吸虫-木虱），它对大多数批准的杀虫剂具有抗性。梨树吸盘的危害是由树液取食和蜜露引起的烟丘和过早落叶，这是英国梨树生产经济损失的主要来源，产量低于其他具有类似气候的欧洲国家。3 .梨吸盘有少量的主要天敌（花蚧虫-麻蚧虫，欧洲蠼螋-耳Forficula auricularia，瓢虫-七星瓢虫，入侵的小丑-灰瓢虫）。充足的梨园可供研究，包括18个地点已有的昆虫计数。NIAB EMR对梨树害虫和天敌有完善的现有数据，包括3个果园7年的每周全年数据和15个果园3年的收集数据。他们还拥有自1936年以来梨品种开花时间和持续时间的数据库。从英国气象局的UKCP18预测中可以获得英国在一系列未来情景下的气候预测。该博士学位的目的是利用现有数据来模拟三营养相互作用，收集现场数据来验证模型，确定未来气候条件下梨种植者的生产风险，并探索减少和减轻已识别风险的选择。

Climate influences timing of key events including crop flowering, seed set, and harvest, but also the peak abundance and occurrence crop pests and their natural enemies. Changing climate may alter the timing and duration of organisms' life-cycle events, leading to 'phenological mismatches' or prolonged activity cycles that have consequences for sustainable crop production.This PhD will explore the impacts of climate change on pest control, identified as a key industry need. UK pear orchards provide an ideal model system for this study because;1. Pears have one, dominant pest (pear sucker -Psylla pyri), which is resistant to most approved insecticides.2. Damage by pear sucker, caused by sap feeding and honeydew causing sooty mound and premature leaf drop, is a substantial source of economic loss in UK pear production, with yields below other European countries with similar climates.3. Pear sucker has a small number of key natural enemies (Anthocorid bug - Anthocoris nemoralis, European earwig - Forficula auricularia and ladybirds native 7-spot - Coccinella septempunctata, and invasive Harlequin - Harmonia axyridis).4. Ample pear orchards are available for the study including preexisting insect count for 18 sites.NIAB EMR have excellent existing data on pear pests and natural enemies including weekly year-round data for 7 years from 3 orchards, and data collected for 3 years from 15 orchards. They also hold the database for onset and duration of flowering of pear cultivars from1936 onwards. Climate predictions for the UK under a range of future scenarios are available from the Met office's UKCP18 projections.The aim of this PhD will be to utilize existing data to model tri-trophic interactions, collect field data to validate the models, identify production risks for pear growers under future climate conditions and explore options for reducing and mitigating identified risks.