Model Transition Sensitivity Analysis

产品说明：该项目将开发用于评估模型假设对传染病分析、监测和控制决策的影响的软件。大多数分析只考虑模型参数值变化的敏感性，而忽略了模型形式的假设（例如确定性与随机性，ODE与离散个体）如何影响结果和随之而来的决策。本研究将：（1）进行需求分析，以指定仿真引擎和功能纳入软件。 (2)开发和测试软件原型，以评估所提出的方法的可行性。 (3)根据原型的结果构建、测试和实施一个完整的软件包。 (4)应用软件和方法来展示该方法及其对疾病监测和控制的独特益处。 该项目的可行性在第一阶段研究中得到了证明，该研究实现了前两个目标。SBIR项目第二阶段将实现目标三和目标四。该项目的技术和科学创新将彻底改变我们在分析、控制和监测传染病方面制定合理决策的能力。

DESCRIPTION: This project will develop software for assessing the impacts of model assumptions on decisions regarding the analysis, surveillance, and control of infectious diseases. Most analyses consider sensitivity only to changes in a model's parameter values, and ignore how assumptions of model form (e.g. deterministic vs. stochastic, ODE vs. discrete individual) impact results and concomitant decisions. This research will: (1) Conduct a requirements analysis to specify the simulation engines and functionality to incorporate in the software. (2) Develop and test a software prototype to evaluate feasibility of the proposed approaches. (3) Build, test and implement a complete software package based on results of the prototype. (4) Apply the software and methods to demonstrate the approach and its unique benefits for disease surveillance and control. Feasibility of this project was demonstrated in the phase I research that accomplished the first two aims. This phase II SBIR project will accomplish Aims three and four. The technologic and scientific innovations from this project will revolutionize our ability to formulate sound decisions regarding the analysis, control and surveillance of infectious diseases.