The impact of atmosphere-wave-ocean coupling on extreme surface wind forecasts

熟练的天气和气候预报对于保护生命和生计以及管理气候变化的影响至关重要。利用观测、对流尺度数值天气预报模式（能够表示单个对流云的模式）、耦合建模（大气与海洋、波浪或陆地表面模式之间的耦合）和集合预测系统（对同一事件进行多重、等可能的预报，以量化概率和不确定性）方面的新能力可以改进天气预报，从而改进早期预警。我们的项目将有助于使用一种新的对流尺度大气-波浪-海洋耦合模式改进局部极端风速和阵风的预测。该项目的目的是确定大气-波浪-海洋耦合是否以及如何通过改善边界层特征来改善与温带气旋相关的地面风速和风速预报。我们的CASE合作伙伴是英国气象局，我们的合作伙伴是环境预测发展小组，它是天气科学的一部分。该项目将利用由该团队开发的新的英国环境预测（UKEP）区域耦合系统。UKEP系统是英国第一个对流尺度耦合模式。温带气旋（也被称为冬季风暴、风暴或低压低气压）是英国主要的风力灾害。我们将与英国气象局的合作伙伴一起确定UKEP系统是否能更好地预报与温带气旋相关的地面风（和阵风），如果可以，则确定发生这种情况的原因。

Skilful weather and climate forecasts are vital for protecting lives and livelihoods and managing the effects of climate change. New capabilities in the use of observations, convective-scale numerical weather prediction models (models capable of representing individual convective clouds), coupled modelling (coupling between models of the atmosphere and ocean, wave or land surface models) and ensemble prediction systems (multiple, equally likely, forecasts of the same event to quantify probability and uncertainty) can improve weather forecasts and so improve early warnings. Our project will contribute to improved prediction of localised extreme wind speeds and gusts using a new convective-scale coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model. The aim of this project is to determine whether and how atmosphere-wave-ocean coupling improves surface wind speed and gust forecasts associated with extratropical cyclones through improved boundary layer characteristics Our CASE partner is the Met Office and our collaboration is with the Environmental Prediction Development Team, part of Weather Science. This project will exploit the new UK Environmental Prediction (UKEP) regional coupled system that was developed by this team. The UKEP system is the first convective-scale coupled model for the UK. Extratropical cyclones (also known as winter storms, windstorms, or low-pressure depressions) are a major wind hazard for the UK. We will work with our Met Office collaborators to determine whether this UKEP system can yield improved forecasts of surface winds (and gusts) associated with extratropical cyclones and, if so, the reasons why this occurs.