Fixed Traits and Mortality at the Oldest Ages

描述（由申请人提供）：最老的老人是最快的一个 越来越多的人群，但我们对风险因素知之甚少 最老年龄的死亡率。只有少数研究检查了风险因素 对于85岁以上的人来说，没有人研究过这些因素是否会增加 或在85-100岁的年龄范围内重要性降低。死亡率模型 异质性人群的死亡率变化表明， 个人可以导致误导性的结论下降的重要性 个体风险因素。拟议的研究将使用以下方法来研究这一问题： 一个数据集，结合了三个调查的信息： 纵向死亡率，健康和退休研究，以及AHEAD研究。 将这些调查中对60岁及以上人口的观察结果结合起来， 提供足够大的样本，以详细研究相对风险如何 随着年龄的增长而变化。合并后的数据集还涵盖了 足够长的时间，以便有可能检查风险的变化 在近20年的时间里，队列中的比率。的目标 研究是1）将调查联合收割机合并为一个数据集，2）研究变化 在不同时期和队列中，固定特征的相对风险超过年龄，3）比较 基于固定脆弱性模型的相对风险变化，以及4）检验 基于两个或更多风险因素的模型。这些模型将用于研究 种族/民族、教育、婚姻状况（从未 结婚，出生地。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The oldest old are one of the fastest growing segments of the population, but we know little about the risk factors for mortality at the oldest ages. Only a few studies have examined risk factors for those over age of 85, and none have examined whether those factors increase or decrease in importance in the age range 85-100. Models of mortality in heterogeneous populations have shown how variation in mortality among individuals can lead to misleading conclusions about declines in the importance of individual risk factors. The proposed research will examine this issue using a data set that combines information from three surveys: the National Longitudinal Mortality, the Health and Retirement Study, and the AHEAD study. Combining the observations for persons aged 60 and over in these surveys will provide a sufficiently large sample to examine in detail how the relative risks of fixed traits change with age. The combined data set also covers a sufficiently long period that it will be possible to examine changes in risk ratios within cohorts over a period of almost 20 years. The aims of the research are to 1) combine the surveys into a single data set, 2) study changes over age in relative risks for fixed traits in periods and cohorts, 3) compare changes in relative risks with models based on fixed frailty, and 4) test models based on two or more risk factors. The models will be used to study changes in the effects of race/ethnicity, education, marital status (never married), and place of birth.