Improving the accuracy of entomological measures of risk for vector borne diseases

蚊媒疾病是一个重大的全球健康问题。尽管下降幅度很大，但疟疾仍然是全球死亡的主要原因（2015年死亡730,500人），与登革热相关的死亡率日益令人担忧，从2005年至2015年增加了48.7%。减少病媒与人之间相互作用的干预措施是疟疾流行率和发病率下降的关键。然而，伊蚊传播疾病的媒介控制方法的随机对照试验显示出不同的效果；杀虫剂和室内滞留喷洒对登革热风险无显著影响。在许多环境中，已发现按蚊和伊蚊对杀虫剂具有抗药性。因此，评估预防媒介与人相互作用的干预措施的效力是公共卫生的一个优先事项。昆虫学接种率（EIR），或每人每年感染叮咬的平均次数，主要取决于病媒年龄、病毒或寄生虫的外在潜伏期（EIP）和病媒叮咬行为。本项目将采用建模方法，以确定环境变化和干预方案对生态环境影响的影响，以及生态环境影响变化的机制。

Mosquito-borne diseases are a significant global health problem. Despite large declines, malaria remains a leading cause of mortality worldwide (730,500 deaths in 2015), and, dengue-associated mortality is a growing concern, increasing 48.7% from 2005-2015. Interventions to reduce vector-human interactions have been key to the observed decline in malaria prevalence and incidence. However, randomised controlled trials of vector-control methods for Aedes-transmitted diseases have shown variable efficacy; both ITNs and indoor residual spraying had no significant impact on dengue risk. And insecticide resistance in anopheline and Aedes mosquitoes has been identified in numerous settings. Evaluating the efficacy of interventions that prevent vector-human interactions is therefore a public health priority.The entomological inoculation rate (EIR), or average number of infectious bites per person per year, is primarily dependent on the vector age, extrinsic incubation period (EIP) of the virus or parasite and vector biting behaviour. This project will adopt a modelling approach in order to identifying the impacts of environmental change and intervention programs on the EIR and the mechanisms through which EIR changes.